The Middle East: What Happens Next? 5 options from Independent, UK

[Gloria]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article1195264.ece

The Middle East: What happens next?
Published: 25 July 2006

Option 1: Israel withdraws unilaterally

How? Amid international outcry over mounting civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, President Bush is prevailed upon to pressure the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, to rein in the military.

And then what? Uneasy truce in which status quo is restored: probable halt to incoming rockets but Israel still vulnerable to raids like the one 13 days ago in which two soldiers were abducted by Hizbollah. Hizbollah celebrates "victory" and continues to build its strength as a military force, claiming it has twice defeated the Israeli war machine.

Winners ... Hizbollah - would still claim victory over Israel, angering US, which views militia as a proxy for Iranian terror.

... and losers Israel - would still say it had degraded Hizbollah " infrastructure," but at a huge cost to its international reputation.

So will it happen? Unlikely, given the high political cost to Israel and the US.

MORE

Option 2: Diplomatic settlement
Option 3: Israel snared in counter-insurgency
Option 4: Lebanese government falls
Option 5: Israel invades Lebanon

[LeftCoast]

1. Hmm...interesting analysis. K&R

:kick:

[Gloria]

2. A good, organizing checklist to work from....

[LeftCoast]

3. I pretty much agreed with all their assessments, including (sadly)

which scenarios were most likely. I'm hoping for a quick diplomatic settlement, but it just doesn't seem like Condi or the rest of the misadministration is very invested in diplomatic peace.

[DELUSIONAL]

4. It seems like they are going for option #4

Lebanese government falls -- thus Hizbolla is out.

Winners ... At first, Israel's military, Syria militarily.

The crews running the US and Israeli government seem incapable of long term planning -- and grasping all the variables.

Israel's last invasion left a power void which Hizbolla filled.

But a much worse possible scenario: southern Lebanon could become a cauldron of terror as militant groups pour into the region in support of Hizbollah.

It seems according to this article -- Israel's becoming the main aggressor is making Hizbolla the ultimate winner in this idiot crap stupid war.

So has the leadership lost it's mind -- working as a recruiting agent for Hizbolla???

As I read all the options -- Hizbolla wins.

Violence only breeds more violence.

Beating a child to make the child good -- doesn't work -- we know this.

[On the Road]

5. Excuse Me, But if the Lebanese Government Falls,

the Cedar Revolution is out, the pro-Syria faction is in, and Hezbollah stays and grows in influence.

[Gloria]

6. Read something along the lines that Hezbollah doesn't have to

WIN to win. As long as they finish this still standing, they win....