What is the feeling here on DU

[TallahasseeGrannie]

as to how the war in the ME will affect the Bush administration's popularity at home? Will he get a bounce from this or a dip?

I know many of you are far more experienced in predicting this kind of thing than I am. It seems callous to even look at a war in these terms, but there it is. Politics. And if the Republicans get a lot of help from this situation it is doubly disastrous.

Thanks.

T-G

[SensibleAmerican]

1. It'll be a wash, until America is drug into war

Then Bush's approval could go up or down, depending on circumstances.

[magellan]

2. Depends on how the Israelis fare

I think if they invade Lebanon with ground troops, hopes will run high at first, and Bush** might actually get a little bump out of it. But there's little doubt it will become a bloody and drawn out urban war just like we're fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, with many dead on both sides. Perhaps it will convince more Americans that fighting terrorism this way isn't effective, just in time for November elections.

[fishnfla]

3. I cant presume to speak for DU, but

The media has gotten nothing but IsraelvLebanon on the print and airwaves.
Anything that directs attention away from Iraq and Afghanistan is good for the mid-terms.

Plus they can point to Hezbollah and screech "terra" and they can point to Israel and say "deadly force is the only way to deal"

edit: fat fingers

[William Seger]

4. Depends on what happens next

It ain't over.

[lectrobyte]

5. Anything that takes attention away from his wars and economic

situation here at home can only help him.

[Breeze54]

6. He's not the issue.

It's the Gop's and the Dem's responses that are the issue.
He's incidental, at this point, IMHO. He's not running for any offices!
But all his criminal buddies are up for re-election!

[bloom]

7. The way the war votes went

with the Democrats on board - so there is almost total support - no arguments - no different POVs - it looks to me that it will be another boom time for Bush.

Yeah rah - killing people - aren't we something ? ! ? :eyes: :grr: :nuke:

[azmouse]

8. The MSM will try to paint it as a positive for * no matter what happens.

I just get the feeling that the idiot in the WH could actually start a world war over nothing at all and the media would see it all as a positive for the Reps.
I've given up trying to figure it out.

[AlCzervik]

9. nothing either way.

[WilliamPitt]

10. Well

Israeli-Palestinian-Lebanese hostilities over the last 15-20 years were a lot of what inspired guys like Ramsi Yousef and Osama bin Laden to bring the fight to America (and don't get on me about LIHOP, because Yousef undeniably lit off that first bomb in the WTC).

This newest flare-up will inevitably and eventually be brought home to us here. The oceans are no longer a buffer, and our intelligence services (read: first line of defense) are like withered leaves on a sick tree.

So when it happens, Bush's popularity will hit rock-bottom. But you'll never know it, because we will go Red Alert after the next attack, which is martial law and the suspension of both habeas corpus and posse comitatus. The news will serve the interests of the state, and the interests of the state will be total control.

In the short-term, this shit sure has taken Iraq off the radar, hasn't it. Ditto NSA spying, the Plame lawsuit, and the Abramoff scandal. That is a political plus for the GOP, with a little more than 100 days to go before the midterms.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

11. I think it's a loser for him.

The whole region is now aflame. IMO most Americans will look at the headlines and say it's a mess and blame the Boob-in-Chief. Not based on any real knowledge of the situation but just on the gut feelings of "somethings wrong and that idiot is in charge." It's like when a recession hits, for whatever reason, the sitting politicians get the blame.

[Finder]

12. Most people in the US could care less...

Today I was shocked that many are not even aware of what is going on. Even those that have seen reports think it is just more of the same. People are too busy working, shopping, to even try to understand.

[nealmhughes]

13. Right now I think the grocery store checkout lines are pretty apalled by

the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon. I think they are equally apalled by the fact that Lebanon is so weak that the southern section of the country is basicly a terrorist state with its own army and schools, clinics, etc.

The US was always pro Israel when the state was formed and invaded by the Arab armies in response and in the 67 war. Since then, it seems that blanket carte blanche has eroded.

On the other hand, regardless of sympathy for Lebanese and Palestinian civilians, the specter of Israeli civilians being fodder for bombs and rockets is rapidly getting old to the public.

I think that US Christian citizens have always seen Israel as a "New World" in Asia...somehow ordained by God aeons ago and now getting what was preordained, and "Brave little Israel" against the Muslim hordes has clouded our understanding of the entire conflict.

There are neocons who would salivate for the chance to get the US in a hot war against Iran, Syria and Lebanon as Israel's ally. There are fundamentatlists who read their Scofield Ref. Bible and say that we HAVE to unconditionally support Israel as God ordains it.

There are also antisemites who drool at the thought of Israel and the Jewish religion being destroyed, and the Arabs along with it.

Hopefully, most Americans, even the LCD, aren't entirely buying all the spin and sermons and Bill Kristol articles hook line and sinker. CNN, regardless of editorial content, is showing what is happening in Lebanon. I don't think the people staring at the Enquirer and AAA batteries on sale at the Piggly Wiggly are too interested in the spin from anyone: they are seeing the pictures. Live.

[oasis]

14. The ME has gone down the toilet since Bush has been president.

He has no leadership abilities. Bush is The Fundraiser-in-Chief and that's the limit of his ability.

Ask those fleeing Lebanon if Bush is the leader of the free world.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

15. I'd say that

it will improve things with his fundy base, who support Israel because they feel it will bring on the Rapture (and of course all Jews must convert or be condemned to hell, but that's later). It might make some Jews support Bush, but I think they would be wary, seeing how Bush has made a mess over every crisis he's encountered. As for Muslim Americans, who, in 2000, tended to vote repuke, I have a feeling they'll be voting Dem this time around.