Lebanon--The Rut Becomes A Grave
by Larry C Johnson
Israel's latest offensive to root out and destroy Hezbollah probably will fail and in the process will ignite a new round of international terrorist attacks that will put the United State squarely in the crosshairs. It is as if we are watching a plane crash in slow motion. We see the plane hurtling towards the earth, our mouths agape in a silent scream. We know it will explode on impact and can do nothing but watch.
...............
What to Do?
Although Hezbollah uses terrorism as a tactic, it is not primarily a terrorist organization. It has evolved over the years into a genuine political movement and conventional military force. This is a reality we can ignore at our peril. If we choose to view Hezbollah strictly as a terrorist threat then we convince ourselves that we have only one option--fight. But understand this--if we fight Hezbollah we will unleash a new war front that we are not prepared to pursue. At a minimum we can expect to face the fury of Shia militias attacking our troops and personnel in Iraq.
There are some other options. We could recognize Hezbollah does have people in their ranks amenable to negotiation. If we pursue a political path, while not eliminating the option to take out terrorist elements, we have some new possibilities to consider. The United States needs take the lead in organizing a ceasefire, sooner rather than later. The ceasefire must be accompanied by the insertion of an international peacekeeping force with the muscle to shutdown rocket launches from Lebanon and an exchange of prisoners between Israel and Hezbollah.
If we choose to fight get the body bags ready and take out a home equity loan. Americans will die and gas prices will soar. We will reap our failure to learn anything from the last forty years in the Middle East.
more at:
http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/07/the_rut_becomes.html