Worst Case for US, Short of Nuke War?

[earthside]

How bad could this war in the Middle East get for the United States?

The apocalypse could happen ... Israel has nuclear weapons.

But barring that possibilty, the U.S. is in such a weakened state that we could suffer a major defeat and humiliation.

The irresponsible and reckless policies of Bush/Cheney/Rove have destroyed American credibility among all the players ... even Israel has already told Condi and the U.S. to "back off".

So, if this careens out of control and Israel bombs Syria, then we might expect the Syrian-Iranian military alliance to go into effect.

The first thing Iran might do is cut the export of oil -- the U.S. economy could tank literally overnight, I would even expect low-level panic in certain sections of the country.

Saudi Arabia, subject to pressure for Muslim/Arab unity, might very well feel compelled to announce cuts in petroleum exports.

Can you imagine the pressure on the politicians in Washington to do whatever it takes to get out of this mess if gasoline is $8 a gallon ... that is if you can find gasoline. My guess would be that a divide would emerge in the country between getting the hell out of the Middle East now, or committing to World War 3 to secure oil resources. The controversy over which path to take could actually mean political paralysis and inaction from the U.S.

Then there are the 150,000 U.S. troops stuck in Iraq. If the situation really gets out of control and the U.S. is drawn in as active, military defender of Israel, it is even possible that our troops in Iraq could become high priority targets for ALL of the Iraqi people. A nationwide Iraqi rebellion against the occupiers could mean many U.S. casualties -- and a precipitous evacuation of all U.S. troops out of Iraq.

If Bush decided to respond to these attacks on U.S. forces with massive retaliation -- cruise missiles, MOABs, Daisy Cutters, etc., it would look like a slaughter to the rest of humanity ... and might lead to even more violence against America around the globe.

This is the possible worst cast scenario I see .. and it is mostly because under Bush the U.S. has lost its direction, its moral standing, and the respect of the world.

The really tragic thing is that since Bush/Cheney/Rove have taken power ... these kinds of doomsday imaginings seem increasingly possible, instead of highly improbable.

[burythehatchet]

1. The same thought occurred to me

Any kind of wider conflict will choke what's left of the US economy. I would expect a 20% drop in the markets.

[paparush]

2. Only One Thing Is Certain- Bush will not act out of Diplomacy..

He will ONLY act with violence.

Bank on it.

If gas hits $8/gal I will be one of what I hope to be millions of Americans occupying DC, banging on the doors of the white house if necessary, to prompt Bush The Liar to act like a human being. I'll hike to DC if I have to...