Rhode Island Senate: Whitehouse: 38% Chafee: 37%

[WI_DEM]

This seat is trending our way. Chafee has a primary hurdle he has to cross (and may lose the primary to a right wing Republican). In the general election if Chafee does pull out the primary, Democrat Whitehouse is now at 38% and Chafee is at 37%, the previous Brown University poll had the race 40-34 percent in Chafee's favor, so the incumbent has lost three points and Whitehouse has gained four.

If Lafee wins the GOP primary--it's all over--Whitehouse wins by 55-25 percent (44-29 in previous poll).

www.dailykos.com

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. This is sweet. Do we know how he polls against Lafee? n/t

[skipos]

2. PLEASE HELP LAFFEY WIN THE REPUB NOMINATION!!!

If that happens, Whitehouse (D) will definitely win the general election. Add that seat to the likely pickups of PA, MT, OH, and MO and the republicans no longer have a majority. Adding TN or VA would give us a majority.

We did really will in 05 (VA, NJ, CA) and we can do well in 06!!!

[WI_DEM]

3. Chafee had his chances to ditch the GOP and become a Dem

and he decided to stay with them--good riddence.

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. I found THIS from June 22. Among 256 likely voters Chaffee 39% Laffey 38%.

RIC poll has Chafee, Laffey neck and neck

05:00 PM EDT on Thursday, June 22, 2006
By Providence Journal staff



A Rhode Island College public opinion survey of Republican primary voters shows that U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee and Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey are locked in a dead heat for the GOP Senate nomination.


The survey of 256 likely Rhode Island primary voters conducted between June 19 and 22 shows that 39 percent support Chafee and 38 percent would back Laffey. The poll carries a margin of error of 6 percent.


Laffey leads among men, 44 percent to 34 percent, while Chafee has the edge among women, 37 percent to 35 percent.


The survey, conducted by veteran RIC prolitical science professor Victor Profughi, also shows that Chafee does better among independents, who are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.


Chafee does much better with independents than he does with base GOP voters. For example, among unaffiliated voters, Chafee betters Laffey 49 percent to 31 percent. Among registered Republicans, Laffey leads Chafee 45 to 28.

http://www.projo.com/digitalbulletin/content/projo_20060621_goppoll21_.b057686e.html

[WI_DEM]

5. let's hope more independents vote in the dem primary than GOP

[m_welby]

6. Over 14,000 Dems recently 'unafilliated' in RI

probably to vote in the republican primary. It is unknown if they will vote for chafee or against him in order to insure a Dem win in November.

However, if I were to make a guess, they will all vote FOR Chafee because RI is a VERY independant place and we like Mr. Chafee, he is a good Senator.

Normally, noone votes in the republican primary (seriously, the dem primary garners 4 to 5 times the voters that the republican side does). So any shift in that is going to be independants (and moderate DEms) voting to keep chafee.

I can almost guarantee that if Chafee wins his primary he will win his seat again, if he loses the primary (or just squeaks by) then whitehouse will likely win it.

I still don't know what I'm going to do. I like Chafee (and before you go off on me about it, check to see if your DEM senator voted against the IWR and the Patriot act, and Mr. Whitehouse is hardly in the same league as the kind of senaor RI likes to elect (take a look at the records of Mr. Pell, Mr. Chafee Sr, and Mr. Reed).

I may vote for Whitehouse, I may vote in the republican primary in order to keep 'laff-at-me' from any chance of higher office (as I am always unaffiliated). I may vote in the dem primary in order to give scheeler some support. I don't know, it will be a very hard decision this year.

All I'm saying is that Chafee is not as 'at risk' as you would think for a republican in a very blue state.

[WI_DEM]

7. Sorry but a vote for Chafee is a vote against a Democratic Senate

which we need to stop the Bushit in this country and put some skids on his judicial nominations. Yes, Chafee is much more moderate than the normal GOP Senator, but I would rather have a true democrat who will be more dependable on most issues than a moderate republican. Chafee is using the same case that Joe L. is using in CT that he opposed Bush on Alito, for instance, but to truly have opposed Alito both would have supported the filiburster attempt. Yes, some other Democratic Senators also didn't support the fillibuster too, but we have to take 'em one at a time. This is a major chance to win a GOP seat and bring a Democratic Senate and a vote for Chafee, in my opinion, is a vote for a continuation of this GOP Senate and their policies.

[m_welby]

10. That's fine, but it was not this seat that was lost by dems

Mr Chafee's seat ahs been republican since before Reagan.

Whine and cry about it all you want, but it isn't Rhode Island that lost the Senate, the House, and the Presidency.

Yes, it is a 'chance' to win back the senate from the republicans, and I may hold my nose and vote for whitehouse, but for a good senator to to lose his seat because the rest of you yahoos all over the country can't keep the crazy neo-con republicans out of office isn't right.

Senator Chafee (and RI) is not the problem here, you should remember that.

[WI_DEM]

11. No, but it's one of the seats which democrats can win and take over

the Senate with. Chafee's dad was a legend and even more liberal than his son. He served in a time when there were many more moderate Republicans than there are now. And Chafee is one of the problems because he continues to vote with the Republicans when necessary and will vote for a GOP leadership of the Senate next year which will control the committees and judicial nominations. I'm actually rooting for Chafee to lose his primary because it would be easier to win against Laffey. But if Chafee wins I will contribute to Whitehouse and hope that he will defeat the Senator. I want a democratic senate and that means supporting a real democrat against a moderate republican. But you are a Rhode Island resident and you do what you think best.

P.S. Frankly, I can't believe we are debating on Democratic Underground whether or not to support a Republican Senator when we have the best opportunity to win back the Senate that we've had in several years.

p.s.s. I tried to keep my post respectable too so I resent you calling me a "yahoo" or whatever. Wisconsin, byw, has two Democratic Senators--and I also don't think Chafee is all that wonderful--but that's my opinion.

[m_welby]

13. I'm really only trying to illustrate how difficult it will be

I want a democratic Senate, I've been on DU for years now and I'm still unsure about how I'm going to vote.

I know people in RI who are MUCH MORE liberal than I am who tell me they will still vote for chafee.

RI is a VERY independant state and anyone who thinks winning this seat for the DEMS will be easy is fooling themselves. If whitehouse wins this it will be like a long shot payoff.

This will be one of the most difficult seats to turn over this year, no one should count on it happening, that's all I'm trying to say. Of all the seats 'in play' I think this is the least likely to go Dem.


No one should get their hopes up.

[skipos]

14. "anyone who thinks winning this seat for the DEMS will be easy is fooling"

themselves."

I don't think anyone is saying that. What we are saying is that it is STUPID for any democrat or progressive minded independent to vote for Chafee either in the republican nomination or in the general election. It isn't just about Whitehouse being more progressive than Chafee. It is also about the leadership postions that come with having a majority party and having more dems and less repubs on committees.

Are dems stupid enough to shoot themselves in the foot and vote for Chafee? Hell yeah. Sierra Club endorsed Chafee even though he voted with them only 1 out of 5 key issues in 2004. Chafee voted for Bush's horrific EPA appointee Wehrum.

Is Chafee one of the least destructive republicans in the senate? Yes. Would Whitehouse be better for democrats and progressive independents? Yes. Are voters perceptive enough to see that? Well, if we have Log Cabin Republicans endorsing a party that hates them, we will surely have RI progressives voting for Chafee at the cost of a more progressive senate and greater republican majority. Just how many progressives will enable the republican destruction of America, I don't know.

Progressives should hope Laffey wins the repub nomination, giving us the best chance of a Whitehouse win and a senate majority.

[WI_DEM]

18. very well put

[m_welby]

16. i must apologize

You would not be one the 'yahoos' i was referring to.

[KingM34]

15. I agree

I used to live in RI myself and I voted for Chaffee. He's a good guy and someone who votes his conscience and not his party. If every politician were like Chaffee, this country would be in a hell of a lot better shape.

Now, I'm sympathetic to the cause of Dems taking back Congress, but I also feel it's important to the health of our democracy to vote for good men and women no matter what party they belong to.

[BillZBubb]

9. Let me get this straight?

You would vote to keep Chafee in office? By doing so, you would vote AGAINST a possible Democratic majority? If the answer to either of these questions is yes, what the F__K are you doing here??????

Chafee is a BUM. He votes with the Repug majority whenever he is needed. I don't care about his IWR vote. I care about his Alito, Roberts, and tax cut for the rich votes.

[m_welby]

12. only care about the votes you diagreee with?

This is fascinating, you are completely willing to let a dem vote for alito and roberts and tax cuts for the wealthy, eh?

To hear you tell it, Chafee was the single deciding vote on all of these, yet it is mostly DEMOCRATS who abandoned you and voted for them.

I may not agree with every vote Chafee has made, but I will reiterate (again) that he has a better record than most democratic senators. That is the point.

I don't know how I'm going to vote yet, I'll make my decision in my own good time. But it is MY decision, I'm not some loony-toon bound to vote a certain way just because the party says so; I thought ony republicans did that.

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. BUT, if Laffey wins the primary, Whitehouse will win the general election.

Why wouldn't you vote for Laffey? I'm just curious? Of course it's your vote, but a vote for Chaffee give him a better chance of winning in such a close race. Knowing that Whitehouse would win against Laffey, OVERWHELMINGLY, should mean a Democrat or in your case, an Independent, would want Laffey to win the Primary. Why wouldn't you want that to hapen? We could pick up a seat.

[BillZBubb]

19. Jeez, Chafee gives the Repugs ONE MORE SENATOR.

We need 51 Democrats to get control of the Senate. Control of the Senate gives us the committee chairs and the power to control what happens in the Senate. We'd get subpoena power.

Chafee is a BUM and he's a Republican bum. If he's the swing vote, the Senate stays under Repug control. If it stays under Repug control, we can't subpoena anything from Bush to investigate his MANY crimes.

Surely this cannot be too difficult to understand? If you want to vote for Repugs, why come to DU?

[TlalocW]

8. I don't care who wins

The two republicans should try to get Laffy Taffy's endorsement though.

TlalocW