Juan Cole on Iraq: We are at the Beginning of 1983 and We are the Soviets

[leftchick]

http://www.juancole.com/

Juan does a nice job of deconstructing Phoney Tony Snow's lies on the Sunday tlak shows....

<snip>

So his premise is just not true. But neither is his analogy on the mark. We are not at the Battle of the Bulge in Iraq. We are at the beginning of 1983 and we are the Soviets in Afghanistan. Here is what wikipedia says about that era:

"1983"

The Muslim insurgency remains locked in military stalemate against Soviet and Afghan troops. The government controls the cities, while the guerrillas control the countryside. There are conflicting reports on the success of the regime in either neutralizing the insurgency movement or crushing it with the aid of some 110,000 Soviet troops. Reports on the war are sketchy and probably biased, since they are based on accounts given either by Pakistan-based rebel groups or by journalists taken on conducted tours by the government. President Karmal is firmly in command of the ruling PDPA. Infighting between the Parcham and Khalq factions of the party is less evident in 1983 than in previous years, and it appears that the Soviets have succeeded in bringing them under control. Afghanistan continues to depend on the Soviet Union for economic aid and food assistance."


Three years later, Soviet documents show, Gorbachev had decided he could not win in Afghanistan, and that he would have to withdraw. Shortly thereafter, the CIA gave Stinger shoulder-held missiles to the Mujahidin (including to our then ally Gulbuddin Hikmatyar), and Gorbachev had to accelerate his plans. In 1988 the Soviets withdrew. A year later the Soviet empire lost its Eastern European satellites, and in 1991 it collapsed.

Would the Soviets have been better off getting out of Afghanistan in 1983? Without any doubt whatsoever. Would the chaos in the country have been worse than what eventually happened, in the 1990s? Highly unlikely.

[leveymg]

1. The metaphor is apt, but we probably don't have another 8 yrs to collapse

If the Repugs steal the next two elections, we have maybe three years till America flies apart.

[leftchick]

2. yes I agree

three seems about the maximum. And the way things look now? Guarenteed they will steal the next two.

:(

[still_one]

3. if the Democrats win in 2006 or even 2008, depending who wins

from the democrats, don't necessarily assume that person would leave Iraq. In fact I think it is a 50% chance that if the Democrats win we will stay the course. Of course if the repukes win, I think it is a 90% chance we will stay the course

I am not particulary optomistic about the prospects. Very little courage has been shown by most of the Democrats regarding the Iraq war up to now, and I do not see anything to change that

[Jim__]

4. The bush admin loves to lie and compare Iraq to WWII.

But WWII was not an optional war started by an incompetent, uninformed, lying jackass. The American people stood 100% behind our efforts in WWII because they understood what it was about; the American people stand about 33% behind our efforts in Iraq because bush can only fool that 33% with respect to what Iraq is about.

[izzybeans]

5. Actually it was started that way when Germany started "preempting"

all over the continent.