Hey, everybody! Las Vegas is going BANKRUPT!!!

[IdaBriggs]

Yup, the folks who program the slot machines have screwed up big time, and suddenly, everyone is WINNING!!! Why, the slot machines are now paying out MORE MONEY THAN THEY TAKE IN!!!!!

And if you believe that, you are a complete idiot, who probably doesn't get the fact that

If Programmers Can Program SLOT MACHINES to EARN MONEY FOR CASINOS -- AND --

We Can Calculate DAILY INTEREST RATES on your Credit Card Purchases ---

THEN WE KNOW HOW TO MAKE THE VOTE TOTALS "REALLY CLOSE" SO NO ONE DOUBLE CHECKS THEM!!!

In the name of all that is holy, how many times do we have to explain this to you?

In 2002, Max Cleland was winning in the polls by 5% -- then his election "magically" flipped THE EXACT OPPOSITE, and he LOST by 7% -- that is a 12% VOTER FLIP -- and nothing happened.

Do you folks REMEMBER 2004? This post is numbers heavy (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=11874), but let me try to explain what the numbers mean.

There were three polls taken.

In the FIRST Florida Poll, Kerry was winning 51-48. In the SECOND poll, he was winning 50-49. In the third poll, he was winning 50-49.

He "lost" Florida 47 to 52. That is a 6-7% turnaround -- outside the margin of error -- meaning that between 4:00 p.m. and when the polls closed (at what, 8:00 p.m.?),

HALF A MILLION PEOPLE SUDDENLY DECIDED TO VOTE BUSH, AND NONE VOTED FOR KERRY.

Now, what about Ohio? Ohio has Kerry winning 52-48, then 50-49, still at 50-49 -- but he LOST 49-51.

But, be of good cheer -- it was ONLY A QUARTER OF A MILLION VOTES THAT FLIPPED! (And we know where, too.)

Oh, but if the "differences" are bigger, you think THAT will make a difference?

Try again.

In Minnesota, Kerry was winning (in the polls) 58-40, then 58-40, then finally 54-44.

His final vote tally? 51-48. (That means they skimmed close to 200,00 votes in a state that had less than three million.)

Don't even get me started on New Hampshire. :mad:

So, let me walk you through this ONE MORE TIME:

A Programmer Can "Register" Voters Faster Than You Can. A Programmer Can Make VOTES "MAGICALLY" Appear -- and its easy!

The Democrats have already won on the issues, and the candidates.

But they can't beat the machines.

[Misskittycat]

1. Good post; gets attention. n/t

[sam sarrha]

2. there is NOTHING being done to stop this either, no one will be in the streets

we are doomed to be slaves.. in Mad Max land

the end is near.....

[rzemanfl]

3. Excellent post. n/t

[AlohaTexan06]

4. We can beat the machines

Hey man I couldn't agree with you more about the vote flips but we cant surrender ourselves to the concept that the machines are unbeatable and thus its over for American Democracy. People who draw attention to this issue, like yourself, are the first step towards beating the machines. The idea that something funny happened in Ohio is becoming more mainstream everyday. As people begin to learn that we arent paranoid and that this really is a problem we can mobilize to make sure we get verifiable voting.

If no progress is made before the 2006 election we should either start commissioning our own exit polling or we should all wear blue when going to vote and have people videotape the lines at the voting booths. That way if a few districts mysteriously go republican we will have tapes of a sea of blue at the district voting location.

This is a serious problem but lets not give in to despair.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

20. TELL UM, AlohaTexan06... welcome to DU! there's wisdom in your words...

You people can be sure that YOUR VOTE WON'T COUNT, IF YOU FAIL TO CAST IT!

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

5. Great Post....More proof of Kerry popular vote win, as well, still posted

At the Washington Post
http://www.wasingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitPolls.html

I snipped a part of the graphic for my sig. line image. WTF

Unless there is another sex besides man/woman...Kerry wins popular vote too.

[Radio_Lady]

42. Cool! I wonder why they still have that up. Gives me some heart to see..

it still displayed.

[jobycom]

6. Well, let me explain why that argument hurts our cause

Polls are based on models. THey don't ask every person who they plan to vote for, they ask a very small number of people, and then use formulas based on historical turnout models and a few other gizmos to extrapolate from that small sampling.

If the models are wrong, the polls will be wrong. So claiming that the pre-election polls prove that the elections are wrong just gets people to look at you like you claimed there were aliens at Roswell. Polls are guesses, based on formulas that can be made obsolete with a minor change in voting habits, demographics, turnout, or whatever.

Democrats have won while trailing heavily in the polls, too. Ann Richards is a good example. So if you've proven Bush cheated, you've also proven Ann Richards cheated. People will easily be able to find cases where polls wrongly predicted the winner, and then your argument just dies a painful death.

You claim the results would have to mean that half a million voters changed their preference. They don't poll half a million voters. They poll about a 1000, so you're talking about a couple dozen changing their preference. And not even that, because the weight each voter is given in a poll isn't equal to the other voters. The poll calculates which demographic each person falls into, and then looks at historical turnout to see ow that Demographic turned out in the last few elections, and how they are claiming they will turn out in this election. Each poll uses a different formula--some believe Dems and Repubs will vote in equal numbers, and extrapolate their data accordingly. Some believe one or the other party will have a slight edge. It's all about the formulas and the calculations, and about how well the polling companies analyze their data. The election and poll results can vary without a single person polled even changing their mind, because the formulas are wrong.

We know there was cheating, but trying to use polls as proof of it only destroys our arguments. People here that, hear the proof refuted, and just shut us out from then on.

You can use such analysis of the polls to get an idea of were to look for cheating. If you analyze the formulas and the raw data (have you?), you can see where the votes don't match the poll results, and look in those areas. You may find, for instance, that in black voting districts votes were unusually high for the Republican, or that the turnout was unusually low. That would tell you where to investigate to discover voter repression, or even direct vote fraud. The polls can be used to uncover the proof. But they are not the proof.

[BeFree]

9. That's all fine and dandy, jobycom

So, you think bush won, fair and square? You think 80% of an election counted by bush friend's machines was accurate?

It's fine to say there might have been mistakes made in the exit polls, but to totally forget about the machines is plain foolish.

They won't let you look at the machine code. They won't let you do a recount. They won't pass a law that would audit the machines, and all you can do is say "don't trust the exit polls"?

This is why democracy is dead, good people doing foolish things.

[druidity33]

33. great retort! n/t

[Imagevision]

29. Calling John Dean, Are you out there?!!

[Canuckistanian]

7. What's your point?

Just kidding :D

If we could only get this one important fact out - that all these "mistakes" "errors" and "glitches" all benefitted Bush or Republicans - there would be more of an outrage.

I thought Americans valued "fair play" above all. Not that it's practiced in reality, but it's still an ideal.

[KansDem]

22. "I thought Americans valued "fair play" above all."

So did I. Until recently...:(

[BeFree]

8. Yet people put their...

...faith in those programmed machines. All the election officials, and nearly all the politicians, have faith in the machines. They think machine counts are the best thing since sliced bread.

Basically, our elections are run by idiots and a handful of programmers. It doesn't look good for democracy, not good at all.

If you want to do something but don't know what, go to your local election office and start asking questions. If those fools get a few people a day coming in asking questions, eventually they'll get the idea and begin losing faith in their precious machines. If you do nothing else, at least do that: ask questions of the election officials.

[KharmaTrain]

10. Don't Tell John Boenner...He'll Need A Vegas Pee Break

Story the other day in TPM of Boenner hitting for almost 3Gs while at a "rest-stop"...somewhere in Michigan.

This reminds me of the TV series "Breaking Vegas"...showed how "young entrepeneurs" found ways to rig the system in Vegas...and you always rooted for them. LOL.

As always, when the topic of vote stealing and rigged machines come into play, I ask how things are going on the local level...electing Democrats to local election boards and the positions that control the machines. From one from Chicago where the "vote early, vote often" story arose, it was the infamous first Mayor Richard J. Daley who once said when asked about if the elections were rigged, we winked and said "now who controls the machines?". It's a lot of hard work getting candidates slated and elected in these type of races...not very sexy either...but it's far more effective than relying on goons like Bev Harris or launching lawsuits that take years to resolve.

[oasis]

11. A slot machine distributor programmed its poker machines NOT to hit a

royal flush. Justice was meted out to the "insiders" by the mob.

[WA98296]

12. Keep on Scremaing about this!!! MOST important issue. Yes, THE MOST.

[Gregorian]

13. BINGO!

_Sorry.

Modus Operandi-

1- Fake news to alter voter perception
2- Intimidate voters to suppress opposing votes
3- Tweak software to imperceptibly alter vote count

[global1]

14. Good Fodder For George Clooney and Ocean's 14 Sequel....

a sting operation to turn the programmers vote turning around again - so the true numbers come out and the election is won by the guy that should have won and not stolen.

[Turn CO Blue]

15. We can too "beat" the machines...with a hammer or baseball bat!

It may come to that...

[teryang]

16. Electronic elections are not susceptible to recounts

Therefore they are illegitimate by their very nature. Once you lose legitimacy, you've lost it. It's either return to paper ballots or people are going to ignore the electoral process.

I don't blame those who have lost faith in the election process.

[Skarbrowe]

63. Didn't the SC do something with that "Equal Protection Clause" in 2000?

Killing the recounting of all the votes in Florida because it wouldn't be fair under the Equal Protection Clause??? :sarcasm: Which made no sense then and never will. But how can you have any Equal Protection if you have no proof that a vote was ever cast? Well, I guess if every vote cast into the vapor of these machines is worthless then we all fit into this:

EQUAL PROTECTION CLAUSE - Portion of the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that prohibits discrimination by state government institu~tions. The clause grants all people "equal protection of the laws," which means that the states must apply the law equally and cannot give preference to one person or class of persons over another.

And they used this to stop a recount because counties voted on different equipment. When you think about it, they were saying that no election that ever required a recount in our voting history would have been legitimate if different voting equipment had been used. Had this ever happened before? I don't know enough about voting history. Maybe they were waiting for the chance to pull that little rabbit out of the hat.

Makes my head hurt.

edited to say that the last paragraph and sentence should not be in italics..that 3:30 in the morning posting thing..

[lonestarnot]

17. Glory to the powers that be!

And you left out WON THE PEOPLE!

[robinlynne]

18. one small thing you can do today. go to velvetrevolution.org and sign the

petition for a hand count of the votes in san diego 50! This is a direct challenge to the diebold tsx machines. We want those votes counted by hand. We want the burden of proof of the integrity of the election to be on the registrar and the SOS for this and the coming elections. No more "prove it was stolen" crap. Please sign your name on, no matter what state you are from. Now is the time to do this, right now! and pass it on.

[senseandsensibility]

19. kick

This really is THE isssue, and the majority of threads on DU should be about this. We should be organizing as a board to fight this. I'm not blaming everyyone; I know that many valient DUers have given it their best (and some have even been tombstoned in the process), but they meet resistance. Even here on DU the FACT that elections are rigged is scoffed at. It's bizarre, and it's hurting us.

[ladjf]

21. Count votes by hand under supervision of International voting

rights groups.

[AzDar]

23. KICK!!

:kick:

[Lars39]

24. Some excellent suggestions from Peace Patriot:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1447205&mesg_id=1448188

[ComerPerro]

25. and we never will beat the machines

[SoCalDem]

26. Founding fathers and the vote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1444860&mesg_id=1444860

Founding Fathers and the Vote
In the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson wrote, "Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed."

snip

The right of suffrage is a fundamental Article in Republican Constitutions. The regulation of it is, at the same time, a task of peculiar delicacy. Allow the right exclusively to property , and the rights of persons may be oppressed... . Extend it equally to all, and the rights of property ...may be overruled by a majority without property....

Eventually, framers of the Constitution left the vote question to the states. In Article I Section 4, the Constitution says:

The times, places and manner of holding elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations... .

snip

[Kurovski]

27. Tricky post, IdaBriggs!

And a very, very memorable point is made. :applause:

Voting machines are programmed to do EXACTLY what they do.

[Imagevision]

28. Calling John Kerry, Are you out there?!!

[Vidar]

30. Right on as usual, Ida.

[drfresh]

31. As a computer programmer of 15 years...

E-voting scares the shit outta me. It's the single biggest threat to our democracy, and it has to be stopped. This year.

[oasis]

32. amen. (nt)

[RagAss]

35. me too...programming for 20+ years and I could have written...

a "vote flip" program my first week as a rookie programmer....scares the shit out of me..

[eppur_se_muova]

34. It's as easy to change a million votes as to change one. That's automation

for you. In the old days, anyone who wanted to steal an election had to do it the old-fashioned way--they had to WORK for it, changing individual ballots and registries by hand, and each one ran the risk of being the one that gave the game away. With voting machines, the owner of the machine--who does not need to be a programmer--can mass-produce altered votes at a keystroke, and the altered votes cannot be checked--there is no record, no ballot, just a few electrons in a memory register, which look exactly like any electrons in any memory register anywhere.

I think we need to plan massive electrical outages every election day. Hmm...I wonder if the guys at the distribution station are union?

[dsc]

36. please fix error in regards to Florida

Kerry's change was within the MOE not outside. Unless the MOE was below 3 which is very unusual, a 6% turn around is within the MOE since the MOE is plus or minus and thus really 6.

[IdaBriggs]

39. Please go read the "numbers heavy" link from Faun Otter and

do some searches on some of the other posts by this NOTED STATISTICS PROFESSOR FROM A MAJOR UNIVERSITY.

Please note the "margin of error" in non-swing states as compared to "swing states" -- I stand by my statement re: Florida.

[dsc]

41. The MOE is whatever it is

and it is your responsbility to provide it, not mine to look it up. But I have rarely, if ever, seen a poll in which it was under 3 and thus the range wouldn't be under 6. Any decent high school statistics student should be able to tell anyone this. It isn't something which changes from state to state. On edit I went to the trouble of looking at the link you give. No MOE's are there.

[IdaBriggs]

65. See Post #47. nt

[dsc]

68. The polls mentioned in the OP are not exit polls

as they were taken days before. Second, I don't believe the 1% figure and would like to see proof not a n/t post.

[IdaBriggs]

72. You are incorrect, but that is okay. The numbers in Faun Otter's post

and quoted in mine are from the RAW EXIT POLLS (hence the fact that there were three taken over the course of the ACTUAL ELECTION day). The "released" exit polls were later "adjusted" to account for the vote totals, but most still don't make any sense if you actually look at them closely. (The ongoing war between the invisible third sex referenced in the Washington Post article quoted elsewhere, for example.)

If you are actually able to do something about this situation (and aren't just having a contrary day), I would be happy to speak to you personally and walk you through the numbers. They are complex, but explainable. I can also get you in touch with people who can walk you through the numbers in other states.

The bottom line is that we (and I'm speaking as a computer professional who does the number thing for a living, and has for the last twenty years) know there is a "problem" and that "glitches" that continually favor Republican candidates, that fall outside of the expected margin of error for exit polls, etc. are RED FLAGS for "something" is going on.

[dsc]

74. Your OP is at best very confusing

and that is your fault, not mine. Only one group of people were conducting exit polls and thus only one exit poll was taken. I realize now that you meant to say that at different times in the day the results were. . . But your mislabeling of the first two things as polls instead of part of the poll which is what they were is what lead to my confusion. I teach stats for a living so I have more than a little idea of what I am talking about. The fact is you mislabeled your post, you still haven't provided any citation for your exceptionally low value of MOE, and now you are being condesending to the point of rudeness. I would like a reasonable explanation for why an exit poll would have such a low MOE, are they asking over 10,000 people per state? It is certainly possible that a poll has a 1% MOE but in my years of following polls I have never seen one which did.

On edit I went hunting for MOE of previous elections. I found this example. The LA Times exit poll in 1998. That had an MOE of 2. Link http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-statsheetindex,1,1019262.htmlstory?coll=la-util-times_poll-state

Go down to 1998 and find poll 420. It is a pdf file.

[Pharaoh]

37. Yup!

when will the morans wake up?

[DemInDistress]

38. can we segregate the vote? sort of like Dems vote here and

GOPOS vote there. I know that sounds "UnAmerican" but the way the vote flips for the GOPOS so often I kind of feel its the only way for a fair vote/election.

GOPOS= grand old pieces of shit.

[jmowreader]

48. There's a better way

Registered Democrats vote on Tuesday.

Registered Repukes vote on Wednesday.

[DemReadingDU]

40. A lot of Americans don't pay attention

They haven't a clue what is going on.
I don't know what it will take to wake them up.

[IronLionZion]

43. It's not what we know, it's what we can prove

and what we can do about it? And that's the important question.

The people who make the laws and oversee the elections are elected by this system. If Ken whitewell wins in Ohio, it's over. There's no democracy left to save.

[Fleshdancer]

44. This is the second brilliant post I've seen of yours this week

:applause:

I haven't read this entire thread so I'm probably echoing others when I say I'm ready to fight this, I just need a little help figuring out what to do next.

[bleever]

45. This kind of cynical, sensationalist post about election fraud

is my favorite kind.

Very well said, and thank you.

[The Doctor.]

46. I know the only real solution.

.PM me.

[Reckon]

47. The margin of error on an exit poll is less than 1%.

They are far more accurate than a regular poll.

[wizdum]

49. Democrats won't be winning ANY elections no matter what the mood is in....

...country if something is not done about this. Kerry should have got the ball rolling instead of walking away.

[rndmprsn]

50. nice... K & R'd eom

[gordianot]

51. Yes, Yes, Yes!

[Awsi Dooger]

52. Why don't you start with New Hampshire?

I'd love to see anyone on this forum try to back that exit poll claim, Kerry leading 57-41 or 58-41. Or anything within a dozen points of those margins.

[robbedvoter]

54. Rove just declared NH a red state

In 2004, New Hampshire voted for Kerry, not Bush. Rove said that was an aberration.

"I've got confidence," he said. "I'm here to tell you this is a red state."
http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060613/REPOSITORY/606130360
------------------------------------------------------------------------
See how close they came in 2004:

[Awsi Dooger]

59. It's a tossup state

The partisan index in New Hampshire has titlted slightly Republican for most of the past two decades, until 2004 when it turned in our favor by about 3 points. Partisan index is the difference between the national popular vote percentage and the state percentage.

But that's what makes the exit poll numbers in New Hampshire so idiotic. Anyone who follows statewide presidential voting trends knows they are preposterous, in fact an embarrassment to exit polling in general. I can't believe DUers are still quoting those numbers. It's like someone telling you a human being ran a 3 minute mile and reporting it, without any knowledge of what's possible and what isn't. Many of the other numbers from those exit poll bar charts are asinine, based on the same knowledge of partisan index. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are stupid numbers, no threat to be a legimate reflection of how the state actually voted.

New Hampshire is basically a 50/50 state. So how does Kerry get an exit poll number like 58%? Pennsylvania is maybe 4 points Democratic. But supposedly Kerry led the exit poll 60-40. Sure. North Carolina trends about 10-12 points Republican. But we're supposed to believe Kerry only lost by a few points. Sorry, but the exit polls do not mirror the historical tendencies, which are distinct and very predictable. I'll rely on history and common sense above a flawed set of numbers from a small exit poll sample.

[IdaBriggs]

66. Bullshit. In 76% of the state, Kerry did better than Gore.

In the "miracle reversal" places, 78% were counted on Diebold AccuVote -- and FOUR OUT OF FIVE of the "biggest" precincts accounted for the amazing reversals, which means RURAL AREAS ARE GOING LIBERAL, and CITIES ARE GOING CONSERVATIVE.

I've got a bridge to sell you if you don't think there was something screwy going on there. Getting the Dems there to do ANYTHING, however, was the next best thing to a joke!

[berni_mccoy]

69. NH is full of moderates, but in 2004 chose Democratic Governor Lynch

The reason: Gov. Benson (R) was corrupt and it was plain as day.

NH also had a Democratic Governor in 2000 (Gov. Shaheen) during Gore's campaign.

Furthermore If the voting machines were rigged, you'd think Benson would have rigged it for himself and Shaheen would have rigged it for Gore, both who lost.

I don't see how NH could be rigged and have the outcomes that it does.

Where do you get your information about the voting Machines in NH? Most places I've seen use paper ballots or scan-cards.

[IdaBriggs]

71. I get my information from "crazy places" like the

New Hampshire Secretary of State. I did the New Hampshire voter study (you can view the original one at www.invisibleida.com).

New Hampshire isn't COMPLETELY rigged; just parts of it. And it isn't all "machine" issues there (although they definitely play a part in it). New Hampshire uses three vote counting systems: Hand Counted Paper Ballots, and two optical scanning devices (Dieboldt and ES&S).

Coincidentally, its the Dieboldt machines that have the highest "outside of expected margin" situations (and they are the ones used in the largest population centers).

[robbedvoter]

70. Exit polls have a 1% error rate. People answer about an actual vote

not some plan for future elections. It's always valid. It's why in countries like Ukraine and Romania they KNEW it was stolen - and they revoted. It's why in US, they tossed them away in 2002 - they showed the truth.
I don't know what you know of NH - but in 2004, many independents, former bush voters voted for Kerry (notable people like Andrew Sullivan et al - but less famous ones too). The numbers in your head have no reason to supercede the numbers in the exit poll. NH may have been a toss up state. Before the Bushes. Now, it's a Florida, Ohio in waiting.
It's why Rove is there.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3987237.stm

Early exit polls quoted by media seemed to give Mr Kerry the edge, but colleagues said Mr Rove indicated right away that they did not tally with his information.

He used his own data to put Ohio and Florida in the Bush column - bringing cheers from the president and his family when he went into the Roosevelt Room and told them

[robbedvoter]

53. But, but, but...only close elections can be stolen, right? RIGHT????

I just found out that VNS (exit polls) projected Gore as winning Florida by 7% - that's 300.000 votes.. is that close? I thought 7% win is a landslide - but what do I know?

[nolabels]

55. But, but, but nobody wants to believe it, the reality is just too horrible

Hey look here folks, if the rat bastards could do they would*, I guarantee it


*which means they did

[Reckon]

57. Then we need

to make it as hard to steal the election as possible. The more votes they have to over come the more obvious it becomes. That's "IF" they can steal it. My state has added a paper trail and by 2008 so will many others.

[IdaBriggs]

67. Paper trails only help if you can get recounts (but they are a start).

We worked on getting New Mexico recounted (80% registered Dems = No Kerry Votes in some precincts!), but the roadblocks that were put up were astounding. Each state has different rules, all of which require money -- Nevada wanted six million or so to double check stuff. Don't get me started....I'm starting to lose my bitter -- once I realized the treason was "nothing personal" -- the guilty ones were just doing it so they could make money.....

Must .... Stop .... Remembering ..... :banghead:

[EVDebs]

56. DoD drops internet voting. Insecure. But domestic vote merrily along

Pentagon drops Internet voting plans for military personnel. Todd Weiss.
www.computerworld.com/printthis/2004/0,4814,89902,00.html

It wasn't secure enough for the DoD and military, but it's OK for US ? Who's in the media not covering this turn of the screw ?

[BrklynLiberal]

58. COUNTING THE VOTES IS WHAT MATTERS!!!!!!

:mad: :grr: :nuke: :banghead:

PAPER TRAILS.. NO ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES!!!!

[snappyturtle]

60. EXACTLY! K&R

[NuttyFluffers]

61. ARGH! Mortally wounded by logic! *gasp* Have mercy!

:evilgrin:

heh, sometimes sense needs to be driven home with a bit more force than a nudge, occasionally more than a sledgehammer. ;)

keep spreadin' that gospel of common sense!

[nofurylike]

62. great statement and demonstration, IdaBriggs! important!! eom

[fooj]

64. Excellent post.

[Time for change]

73. New Hampshire?

Did you change your mind about New Hampshire?

I thought that you had expressed confidence in the NH recount that you had arranged, shortly after it was completed. Has something happened since then to change your mind about that?

[Moderator]

75. Locking

Discussion of stolen elections and electronic voting belongs in the Election Reform forum.