Is this guy insane, or will he be right?

[The Anti-Neo Con]

OK, there's a guy I know who is a friend of my parents. He's pretty much a freeper, but not that bad of a guy, he's helped our family out with a lot of things over the years. Anyway, I truly believe he could be psychic if there is such a thing. He's into betting on sports & such and has picked the Super Bowl champion correctly for the past 34 years. He's also picked the World Series winner correctly for about that many years.

I was talking to him & he was giving me some political/economic predictions. They sounded very off the wall to me, but here's what he told me:

He said that Bush's approval rating will be at approximately 93% at the time of the mid-term elections.

He said there will be a republican sweep of all house/senate seats this fall.

He also said the DOW will close at 24,540 on Tuesday, Jan. 2nd 2007.

Tell me this guy is wrong here please! It just kinda scared me. He predicted Bush would win in both 2000 and 2004, but I thought there was no way.

[SmokingJacket]

1. Ask for more detail.

I'd sure like to know HOW IN HELL Bush can increase his poll numbers. Forget the rest.

[RebelOne]

2. I hope he is right about the DOW.

My 401K and IRA could use a little boost.

[burythehatchet]

3. I think he's right on

I've been thinking the same thing, except in my scenario Bush also wins in 2008 and 2012. As far as the dow closing at 24,540, can you ask him about which sectors will lead the rally, I could use a couple bucks. Thanks and welcome to DU. Can you get your friend to join?

[genieroze]

4. Well, 93% approval rating, not unless it's rigged along with the elections

[Tiggeroshii]

41. I predict it will be 7% with a 90% disapproval but

the Repugs will still take the House and Senate.

[maxsolomon]

5. 93% only if we're invaded

or hit with a nuclear device.

i sure hope he's wrong.

[rucky]

48. how would that help the Dow? n/t

[Tempest]

6. It's obvious he's full of shit, or on drugs

After 9/11 Bush's approval hit 91%. It'll never get anywhere near there again, regardless of what happens or what he does.

It is impossible for a Repug sweep in November. There's too many Democrats up for re-election in safe districts.

It is also impossible for the Dow to hit 24,540 in less than a year. It would require an economic boom that would dwarf the last 215 years of American economic activity COMBINED.

[Xipe Totec]

7. Even a broken clock get the time right twice a day n/t

[LouisianaLiberal]

8. Please be careful around this guy. He sounds like

he could be dangerous. Please make sure there are no guns or sharp implements around when you are in his presence. If you are involved in MLM I'm sure you could sign him up though.

[npincus]

9. You're pulling our chain, right?

[Viva_La_Revolution]

10. has he ever predicted anything correctly except sports?

and were you a witness to all those 'correct predictions' or does he just say he has?

93% is an impossibility! Even if another 9/11 happened his #'s will never go over 49%

the Dow is at 10903 today, and there is nothing to push it up

He's smokin something

[Master Mahon]

11. I think he should stick to sports exclusively! :+

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. I get it.

:thumbsup:

[NYCGirl]

13. Sounds like your friend has a drug problem. You might want to suggest

an intervention.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[meegbear]

15. When is he making the Superbowl and World Series predictions?

Have him today write the World Series winner and the number of games on a piece of paper, put it in a sealed envelope and give it to you.

If he gets it right, you can start getting nervous.

BTW - if he sees 93%, then something must have happened. Well, what did?

[Sammy Pepys]

16. His predictions

First of all, with regards to his Super Bowl and World Series predictions, was he making those predictions at the beginning of the season or once the two teams had been determined?

Moving on...

He said that Bush's approval rating will be at approximately 93% at the time of the mid-term elections.

Has there ever been any President that has had an approval rating that high?

He said there will be a republican sweep of all house/senate seats this fall.

What does a sweep mean...they win every contest? It is possible that the Republicans could maintain control of both houses...I don't think predicting that is going out much on a limb.

He also said the DOW will close at 24,540 on Tuesday, Jan. 2nd 2007.

Well, buy in. Even if he's wrong, stocks are an important part of any portfolio.

[SPKrazy]

17. Wow, This Is Hugh!!!!!!111

You gotta be making this up.

or something

[LaurenG]

18. Don't worry about it

He has his numbers backwards. That's 93% disapproval. If he is right we all might want to plan on leaving the country.

[Systematic Chaos]

19. Erm....

"He said that Bush's approval rating will be at approximately 93% at the time of the mid-term elections."

Approximately? What is the margin of error? 94?

"He said there will be a republican sweep of all house/senate seats this fall."

Why, how thoughtful of them! Do they also do windows and landscaping?

"He also said the DOW will close at 24,540 on Tuesday, Jan. 2nd 2007."

Is that a comma, or a decimal point?

[Innocent Smith]

27. Windows

Yes I think the Repubs do Windows - I think Dems do Mac.

[charlie]

20. You've overblown your friend's abilities

If he's placing bets, his sports picks are 50-50 choices. A 34 year streak is remarkable, but nothing extraordinary or supernatural. Same with picking Bush in 2000/2004. He's lucky.

[tkmorris]

53. Not extraordinary?

The odds of correctly predicting the outcome of a 50/50 event correctly 34 times in succession is 1 in 17,179,869,184.

[charlie]

54. No, it's not extraordinary

The odds of predicting a random event that many times may be that high. Super Bowls and Series aren't random, you have information to assess the outcome. More often than not the contest is one-sided, the favored team wins. In the years of parity or upset, he got lucky.

[LSK]

21. IMPOSSIBLE!!!! Hes completely nuts!!!

The DOW over 24,000 in half a year???

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[sendero]

22. Yeah..

... and as soon as I swallow this pill, I'll be packing 12 inches.

[Minnesota Libra]

23. Here's one that hopes your friend is totally wacko!! nt

[ohiosmith]

24. BULLSHIT! The odds of predicting 34 consecutive Super Bowl

winners is in excess of one in 1.06 trillion.

[Systematic Chaos]

25. Jeez, you make it sound like "it's hard work!"

:rofl:

[Hosnon]

32. That seems intuitively wrong to me. Predicting which team out of two will

win the Superbowl is not the same as picking heads or tails. There is a higher level of knowledge available with predicting the winner of the Superbowl.

And as to the guy predicting 93%...as an earlier poster said, only if physical invasion of the U.S.

[Tempest]

39. He's not picking one of two teams

According to what the poster said in the thread, this guy is making his predictions at the start of the season.

[Hosnon]

42. Oh my mistake. Yeah that is total B.S. nt

[Tempest]

34. Not if he made his predictions

At the two minute warning of the Superbowl game.

Otherwise it's an impossibility.

[Innocent Smith]

26. Superbowl

If he is correct in his first two predictions (both of which are almost completely insane) then I will want to talk to him about the next Super Bowl to make some bets.

P.S. He is wrong. :)

[radwriter0555]

28. He's only right about one thing and that is that the republicans will

sweep the elections again. Of course they will; they own diebold.

Everything else is a pile of crap. Tell him you want the winning lottery numbers.

[Tempest]

36. It would be impossible for the Repugs to sweep the elections

A sweep means they would win every single race, and that's an impossibility with Democrats running in extremely safe districts.

It would mean Harris would have to win, and she's down by 30 points.

[htuttle]

29. I'm sure he'll have a whole array of excuses for why it didn't happen

...all of which will probably be related to Clinton, somehow.

[Hamlette]

30. let me guess, he told you he's been right the last 34 superbowls?

I know the same guy. He's full of it.

[The Anti-Neo Con]

31. Here's what I did.

I talked to him again, and I asked him if he would lay a small wager on these predictions, so he's like I'll bet you $25 that all of this is right. I accepted and wrote down all of his "predictions." Here's the real kicker here though, he said "Based on what the DOW has done today, I have to revise the original number I gave you to 29,710 from 24,540.

Maybe I'll make some $ off him.

Oh & about sports...I'll leak his World Series prediction to you all. This year he says the Cincinnatti Reds will sweep the Boston Red Sox 4games to 0.

[Tempest]

38. Tell him I'll take that bet

Only I'll put down $100,000.

See if he's willing to really lay it on the line.


His World Series prediction won't come true.

Cincinnati most likely won't make the playoffs, and I've been a rabid Reds fan since 1956. Their pitching isn't strong enough and they'll pull another late season fade.

It's also doubtful Boston will make it to the WS as well. They have yet to prove they can win a season series against any of the top teams in the AL.

[beardown]

60. He's already wrong

Hate to break his mojo, but if he's quoting you a new number now, the 29,710, then his earlier prediction of 24,540 was wrong. That string of his didn't last long when placed under scrutiny.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

33. He must be very wealthy. Hitting all those Superbowls and World Series.

Have him start giving you the lottery numbers.

[The Anti-Neo Con]

35. Not really.

He always says he doesn't feel right about placing large bets with people when he KNOWS he's going to win anyway.:shrug:

Hmm...good idea about the lottery, I'll see if he can come up with some magical powerball numbers. :rofl:

[FlaGranny]

47. Get the predictions from him and then

use every cent in your bank accounts to make the bets. You can't lose, right? I think I'll pass, though.

[Ksec]

37. 34 times

He sounds like hes full of shit.

Id have to see some proof if hes that lucky. No way that someone can be that good.

[The Anti-Neo Con]

40. He really is that good when it comes to sports.

I was stunned when he predicted the last 2 world series would be sweeps. I don't know how he's that good, but he is. We always joke around with him and say "Hey Biff, where do you stash away your Grey's Sports Almanac from the future?"

[Hosnon]

43. To clear up...is he making the SuperBowl predictions before the season

opens?

[Ksec]

51. Yea, he predicted the Steelers?

Thats hard to believe. Sorry , but Im not buying anyone has that kind of ability. If he did he should be a trillionaire.

[Tempest]

55. He just predicted the winner of this year's World Series

See post #31.

[warrens]

44. Oh, come on

He's on drugs. And I doubt he has picked the winners either. Even Vegas has never come close to a record like that.

[MissB]

45. Wow. Sports and Politics are just so similar.

You really should bet the bank on your friend's predictions. Yeah.

I'm still :rofl: at 93%. :rofl:

[Swamp Rat]

46. Wow! A freeper who can predict (100%) the outcome of sporting events!

He must be a 'jeenyus'! :eyes:

The U.S. military could use all the 'jeenyus' freeptards in Iraq... RIGHT NOW!

[newportdadde]

49. There is a 100% chance he is full of shit.

Maybe DOW will be 24k if the dollar value drops in half....

[alcibiades_mystery]

50. Your friend's an idiot

Supposing any of this is even true, which I doubt.

[nonconformist]

52. 93%? Never happen.

I mean NEVER. Even another attack or an invasion couldn't push his numbers up that high. That's a higher approval rating than after 9/11, and a LOT of shit has went down since then.

Dream on.

[Cha]

56. he may be able to pick

some things but he obviously has a defect if he buys what bush has had to sell.

Why don't we just drag out this thread come mid-terms? It's not that long away.

[dogday]

57. Can he pick the winner of the next world series

cause I need some money big time.....

[Rex]

58. This guy is wrong.

nt

[flvegan]

59. Does he work for Diebold? If so, then I can see

him being right if Diebold does the polling, provides the voting machines and gets the contract to monitor program trading.