How much of a poll bump with Georgie get for this?

[hyphenate]

I can't see him getting too much of a bump, and I hope the only major consequence will be people actually remembering that bin Laden is our "first" target.

[rurallib]

1. He will get a piece of Condi but no jump.

[radwriter0555]

2. You NAILED it! THIS is why they're pretending they've killed zarqawi!

Thank you.. I knew there was a reason. You are the WEENAH!

That's exactly it. Pretend they've killed the guy who's been dead for years to get a poll boost. Well done. I knew the whole op smelled.

[Dr Fate]

3. The media will indeed assign him higher poll #s now. n/t

n/t

[MADem]

4. Minute, short-lived jump. Up one day, down again in a week. NT

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. People forget just how evil and incompetent they are.

Even though this good news (assuming he really is dead this time) normally would be reflected in people's opinions, he is competing with these issues:

The craven, self-serving and absolutely stupid effort to amend the constitution on gay marriage.
The growing dangers in Iraq and Afghanistan. (I predict the same level of violence and worse)
The growing downward spiral of the US economy. maybe the millionaires in congress don't feel it, but everyone else does. Every single client who walks in my door says they are hurting in today's economy.
The fall out from the latest Fitzmas card.

What I like most is how the bad news from this election cycle has been ignored to date. Perhaps it is too early to chew on it, but the 50th Cal District was actually a disaster for the GOP. They spent what, upwards of $5 million for an extremely conservative and safe district? This would be like a confirmed atheist losing by 3% in a bible belt election.
The correct verdict (utter disaster) has not come home to roost quite yet among the faithful.

The point I am trying to make (in a boring, roundabout and unstructured way) is this. These guys will screw it up. By tomorrow or the day after, there will be another horrific decision made by the Bushistas which will horrify and shock Americans and the world at large. They themselves will drive Al Zaqari off the front pages and away from the talk shows. Just wait and watch. it will happen.

[FSogol]

6. -3 thru -5%. WH has zero credibility. n/t

[Jacobin]

7. 4-6 point bump. It'll last a month

Because IraqNam is not going to get better. It will continue to slide into chaos

[w13rd0]

8. Problem with this as a bumb...

...is you have to explain to the vast majority of Americans who Zarquawi is, or is supposed to be, before you can reap any PR benefit from having killed him. And frankly, many of the names, to most Americans, sound alike, and they've heard this song and dance before, just as with the terror alerts and the bullshit stopped fake or ginned up plots. So the conversation will go something like this...

MSM: Bush killed Zarquawi

US: Who?

MSM: Zarquawi, head of al Queada in Iraq or something equally ominious

US: bin Laden?

MSM: No, um, still don't know where he is, Zarquawi, it's very important.

US: oh, yeah, another #2 or #3? Color me impressed </sarcasm>

MSM: love Bush

US: um, whatever, how about you lying pricks just fuck off...

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. boy, do you write MSM scripts for a living? A homerun post.

[quinnox]

10. I'd say around 5 points

He might even hit 40% but then the decline will begin again after a month or two back to the 30's.

[warrens]

11. Dead cat bounce

1-3 points. For a week.