Don't be upset over the Busby-Bilbray race

[bluestateguy]

Only five years ago this was a district that Republicans could take for granted. They could run a potted plant in that district and win it with over 60% of the vote. The Democrats never really contested it, and they did not have much of an organization in San Diego County, outside of the city proper. Busby ran a tough race, though not without some mistakes, and made the Republicans sweat for this seat. They had to earn it this time. She lost by 5 points, held the Republican to under 50% of the vote and she will be back in the race for a rematch in the fall, when turnout will be higher. Furthermore, the demographics are very much moving in the Democrats direction in this district, much like what happened to Bob Dornan's Orange County district (CA 47th): once a rock solid bastion of white Republican suburbia, it gradually became more urban and more Hispanic. It became a swing district, an now the California 46th is considered to be a Democratic district.

It takes time to build up a party organization at the grass roots level in a place where none has existed before. At first, there are bound to be setbacks. These things can't be done overnight, nor is victory always going to be attainable. When Democrats make Republicans contest every race, against a real opponent, not a token opponent, Democrats will have the momentum on their side, if not now, then soon. In addition, you also force the Republicans to spread their resources thin, and hence fewer of their resources can be devoted to a small concentration of districts. Rather, they have to defend all or most of them. This is part of the appeal of the 50 state strategy. I'm not a fool to think that the Democratic nominee will carry Texas, Mississippi and Kansas in 2008, but he/she can make the Republicans earn those states, by contesting the election everywhere, rather than just the usual suspects of traditional "swing" states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc.). Play offense everywhere, so the Republicans have to play defense everywhere. You'll still lose some of those states you contest, but you'll have forced Republicans to spread their resources thinner.

I'm not suggesting that Busby be satisfied by the outcome. She lost, and there is still work to be done. But she did make progress toward the day when the CA 50th can become a Democratic district. Now she, or some other Democrat, should move forward to finish the job.

[fooj]

1. Agreed.

Is it true that Billbray doesn't live in California? How the hell was he able to run?

[Nikki Stone 1]

3. Like Santorum, who claims to be from PA, but lives in VA

Bilbray's mom still lives in San Diego

[fooj]

7. Yes. But he must show that he is a permanent resident, right?

Just wondering what the story is..........

[Nikki Stone 1]

2. For all intents and purposes, Bilbray is a potted plant

But we need to keep on his ass--every vote he misses, every dumbass thing he says--until November. Busby will have another shot in November and we need to be ready.

[Cha]

5. Halleluja!

Teach It!

[Nikki Stone 1]

10. Even those of us with a short attention span can monitor him for 5 months

Then lower the boom

[LynneSin]

4. I'm actually excited for that race

I was telling another poster who was a bit disenhearted that there is hope in stuff like what happened here in CA-10, last year in OH-02 and possibly November in PA-10. All three of these are very strong republican districts and we are starting to get competatitive. Where once there was no party organization, now there is. And PA-10 gives me much hope because the Republican there won with 92% of the vote in 2004 WITH an opponent. But since 2004 the republican in question, Don Sherwood, has been outed as an adulterer and accusations have been made he has beaten his mistress. Suddenly we not only have a viable candidate in PA-10 but we have an active democratic party building in this republican stronghold.

We cannot win if we do not have the basic infrastructure to build our party. Now in 3 republican strongholds we've started that infrastructure and whether or not we regain those seats in November, perhaps we will be building to win them in the near future!

[robbedvoter]

6. But what kind of voting machines do you have over there?

[fooj]

11. Touch-screen Diebold.....

:grr:

[robbedvoter]

12. Q E D. That explains the hoopla in the media beforehand. They KNEW.

[sandnsea]

8. The 2004 primary turnout

More Republicans turned out in the April 2004 primary. There's just more Republicans there. I never expected solid Republicans to just roll over and vote Dem. It looks like a lot of Republicans just didn't vote. In closer districts, that could bode well for Dems in November. If we can find just a few broad themes to unify the party message, it would be even better.

[peace frog]

9. Not troubled in the least, thank you

I consider it a small victory when a Democratic candidate gains 18 points over the Rethug in a previous run in 2004.

[Skidmore]

13. Busby stood a chance until she shot herself in the foot with that

stupid remark she made 2 days before the election.