After Busby: Almost is Not Enough

[kurth]

After Busby: Almost is Not Enough
The Nation

Democrats keep talking about moral victories this election cycle. But to take back the Congress in 2006, they'll need to convert symbolic wins into actual ones. In a normal election cycle, Republicans would've handily defeated Paul Hackett in Ohio (who was narrowly defeated by Republican Jean Schmidt in a special election last August) and Francine Busby in California. Busby lost to Republican Brian Bilbray in a special election last night by 49 to 45 percent, in heavily Republican districts. But this is not a typical political year, and for Democrats to take back the House or the Senate, they must pick up seats in places like Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee.

The results last night in San Diego's 50th district prove the GOP's resolve. Republicans are still better at winning elections than Democrats are. Democrats had two months to try and increase Busby's total above the 44 percent she took in the crowded April primary, the same number John Kerry garnered in the conservative district. Those numbers barely moved, and turnout remained especially low. Perhaps more disconcerting for Democrats, illegal immigration seemed to matter more than the "culture of corruption" message Busby hammered in Duke Cunningham's former district.

In 2004, Democrats and progressives were convinced that they had a better turnout operation than Republicans did, and the country was as anti-Bush as they were. The country's appetite for Republicans has certainly soured since then, but it's way too early to begin calling Nancy Pelosi "Speaker," as some Democrats are already doing.

A note of caution, after a long political night.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20060607/cm_thenation/1589195

[station agent]

1. There are limitations

It is a moral victory. An actual victory is virtually impossible when the turnout is low, as it usually is in a special election. When things are cranked up in November, there will be a larger pool, more name recognition for Busby and likely more discontent in that district.

[debbierlus]

2. How do we know that those Republicans actually WON?

We don't.

Until the election fraud is exposed, I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell of retaking the House or the Senate.

You think they are going to let a democratic Congress impeach Bush?

They have rigged the election system. And, that NEEDS to be the main issue of 2006.

[AndyA]

7. Truer words have never been spoken!

We must have honest elections that reflect the desire of the people. Without that, nothing matters. The Dems need to grasp this fact, and deal with it NOW. They cannot afford not to.

[demjuli]

8. You are so right

And why were there no exit polls, to hide a discrepancy?

[Nikki Stone 1]

3. Now the timing of the illegal immigration agenda makes sense

Could it be that Repugs considered San Diego an important enough kick-off that they chose an issue that would galvanize the bigots in SoCal? A Busby win would have set a completely different tone.

It seems hard to believe that a national immigration agenda would be deployed for such a small congressional race, but maybe it wasn't so small.

[Quakerfriend]

4. That's a thought. You may be on to something.

We cannot truly know who is winning until election theft is put to rest.

[blm]

6. You are exactly right about that - same thing with the Sunday sermons

against gay marriage that were all full of talking points used in the political debate.

There is no such thing as coincidence when BushInc is involved.

[WI_DEM]

5. There have been more than moral victories in '05 and '06

key statewide legislative races in traditionally GOP districts have gone Democratic in states like NJ, VA and MN. It doesn't surprise me that the Washington pundits ignore that and only concentrate on our narrow loss in an exceedingly Republican district as a set-back. ABC's the Note also is singing the GOP talking points as well that the narrow defeat is a strong indication that the Republicans are not in as much danger as thought--ignoring, of course, the strong Republican bias and $$ put into that race.

p.s.
The Nation also speaks of how progressives thought they had a better turn out apparatus than the GOP in '04 and how the GOP still won--ignoring that there was wide spread voter fraud in Ohio and NM.

[MADem]

9. Good grief, I don't think those results prove anything, myself

A HEAVILY GOP DISTRICT. A GOP candidate. The convenient whipping up of immigrant-hate and gay marriage IMMEDIATELY preceding the election. FIVE MILLION DOLLARS dumped by the RNC into that single lousy district. A heavy GOTV effort on their part.

A five K vote victory. Do the math. If five thousand votes costs five million, that's one expensive election.

IN A GOP DISTRICT. Where in good times, the victory would be close to free....

[SeattleRob]

10. I agree!

A Moral Victory is one thing - but as long as the rethugs keep control, it means little.

The question we have to ask ourselves is why was turnout low? As long as the Democratic Party in Washington is afraid to stand up and be a real opposition party to the Republicans, I fear not much will change.

[AX10]

11. The difference between a narrow loss and a narrow win....

determines who controls the Congress.

We need real victories.

[LaPera]

12. Where do people get this bullshit, the Dem's are taking back Congress?

Congressional incumbents enjoy a 96% reelection rate.

Republicans have a huge corporate mainstream media advantage, helping republican candidates while trashing Dems.

Republicans own all of the extremely easily hackable Diebold & ES&S electronic voting machines, (in which over 80% of Americans vote with).

Karl Rove's spin, lie, cheat, distort, manipulate & smear machine will be going at full throttle in the background of every close race.

Republicans will have as much corporate money as they will need to defeat their opponents.

[Nikki Stone 1]

13. I know. That incumbency thing is a real block

And I don't know where this buzz started

[stopbush]

14. Bilbray will serve until November...

or until indicted, whichever comes first. :)