CA 50 ELECTION: DEMS APPEARING TO LOSE OUT BECAUSE OF RUNOFF

[berni_mccoy]

Take a look at the numbers on this site:

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/politics/9325500/detail.html

One thing I noticed is that there are multiple candidates in each party (like a primary). Francine Busby (D) is running against Chris Young (D). But the leading Republican, Bilbray, is running against NINE OTHER OPPONENTS in his party.

Now look at section below the two primaries titled "U.S. Rep. 50th Dist. - Run-off Completes Remaining Term"

The leading candidate from each party appears to get the votes from the other candidates in their party. So it appears that Busby only get's her votes + Youngs votes, while Bilbray gets the votes for NINE OTHER CANDIDATES. The problem I see here is that how can anyone be sure that someone who votes for one of the NINE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES would have automatically voted for Bilbray. Do voters get to chose their second and third picks on the ballot? If not, this election is bogus.

If you count votes per candidate (no runoff), Busby is beating Bilbray 12,000 votes to 11,000 votes.

Anyone who lives there want to comment on the voting system?

[tritsofme]

1. Not sure what you're getting at...

The run-off is Busby v Bilbray to fill the vacant seat.

There is also a primary for the November election.

[Journeyman]

2. There are two elections running simultaneously. . .

the overall winner will fill the Congresscritter chair til the end of the term, while the top vote getters in each party become the Candidates in the General election in the Fall for the next full term.

On edit: Busby could win the seat today, but will have to contest it again in November against Bilbray (assuming he wins the Republican primary). It could go the other way, too, but let's not think that way this early in the evening.

[Rose Siding]

3. Berni- The early numbers are for about 2/3 of absentees and 1/10

of precincts. Since the GOP had est a 10K lead in absentees -no surprise- this 3K doesn't look very bad yet -certainly not all caps dems lose bad, anyway :)

[Tiggeroshii]

4. In that case, Busby would have 13,000 votes but

she has 17,000 votes in the run off.

[mountebank]

5. "The leading candidate from each party appears to get the votes from the

other candidates in their party."

Not so. Someone can vote Busby or Bilbray in the election and then not vote in the primary for the Nov. race. The races are independent. Unless for some reason the GOP primary is bringing people to the polls that wouldn't turn out for the special election..... But of course they could just as easily claim foul with the Dem. primary for governor.

[expatriot]

6. Good news.... look at the 50th CD runoff results v. the primary results

In the Dem primary, there are 13,500 ballots cast vs. Busby's 17,339 in the generals

In the GOP primary, there are 21,000 ballots cast vs. Billary's 20,448 in the generals. Busby is MONOPOLIZING the few independents that cared to vote today while Billary is LOSING Republican primary voters.

[mountebank]

7. Could be explained by more competition in the GOP primary race.

Probably a lot of Busby voters for today's special election that just did not vote in the Dem primary because there was no real competition. On the other hand, Bilbray had quite a few Repubs running hard against him to the right.