Bird Flu: UN predicts death of 150 million people

[genieroze]

If this was posted before say do and I'll delete it.


Human-to-human bird flu transmission confirmed, UN predicts death of 150 million people

< 24 May 2006 15:30 >

Human-to-human transmission of bird flu has been confirmed in Indonesia (APA). The mutated form of the virus is the danger that scientists expected.

The spread of the bird flu virus from human to human can claim millions of lives. According to pessimistic forecasts of the UN experts, the spread of the virus from human to human may lead to the death of at least 150 million people. Russian head sanitary inspector Gennadi Inishenko predicts 50 million and Russian Emergencies Ministry predicts 27 million might die from this virus.
The possibility of spread of the H5N1 virus from human to human was confirmed in Indonesia. The virus has been found on three children, who stayed in the same room with the infected woman.
The World Health Organization has investigated the death of six of seven members of a family, who contracted the deadly virus in Indonesia. It was confirmed that the 10-year-old child contracted the virus from his aunt and it spread to the father and other members of the family. The WHO is now conducting a large-scale investigation into the case of human-to-human transmission of bird flu.
The Health Ministry spokesman Samaye Mammadova told APA that no emergency sanitary regime is due to be held in Azerbaijan related to the investigation of new mutated form of the bird flu virus. She said precautions are being implemented.
The H5N1 virus has already killed more than 120 people worldwide since 2003. It has also devastated poultry stocks. /APA/

http://www.today.az/news/society/26504.html

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. lalalalalalalalala

not listening.

if someone will please tell me when to start worrying, I'd appreciate it.

[Skink]

4. Start worrying....

Buy some duck tape, you know the drill.

[enid602]

14. duck

But not bird flu-infected duck tape.

[kahleefornia]

41. LOL. I bought SARS infected window plastic once

what a ripoff.

And my emergency radio only picks up Al Jazeera.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. About NOW

by the way... who will you believe? This is NOT George Bush and the WHO has been worrying about this since oh 1997

[TallahasseeGrannie]

33. The WHO?

I'm giggling because for a minute I thought the rock group. Damn, I thought, I didn't know they were still together.

World Health Organization, right?

[Jackpine Radical]

2. More Breaking News from the Poultry Farm...

Chicken Little has announced that the sky is falling!

[Mojorabbit]

3. I'd take this with a grain of salt

We don't have a pandemic...yet and this virus may not be the one to go pandemic. No one knows what the fatality rate of the final pandemic version will be if we do have one. No one can really predict it.
Hopefully it won't happen but it does not hurt to be prepared.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

7. What would you consider

being prepared? Food and water at home for a few weeks?

[Mojorabbit]

9. if it is like the last bad one

it came in waves lasting a few months each for eighteen months. I am going for six months personally. With our just in time shipping to grocery stores, the fact most people now don't garden like they did then, and my experiences pre hurricane in Florida when the stores are stripped of goods in a few days..well, I don't expect timely replenishment of stores in an emergency that affects the entire world.

I certainly would not want to be out on the streets looking for supplies along with several million other people while a pandemic is raging if you know what I mean. i have seen people fighting over a piece of plywood and over bottled water pre hurricane. I'd rather be ready.

[Hoping4Change]

17. For flu preparedness information google fluwiki.

Fluwiki really has the best information and discussion about preparedness. But be warned many advocate that people stock up enough food for 3 months minimum given that if the pandemic strikes there will be massive disruptions in food distribution. Also many people including a friend of mine who is a psychiatrist are advocating that people stay inside for the entire 3 months minimum. My friend also says that there is no consensus in the medical community how doctors and nurses will respond to a pandemic, many may opt to stay home.

Another extremely good site to check out is H5N1 Crosblogs for news and information about bird flu. It has links to governmental birdflu sites worldwide.


http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/


PS From what I have read today the story cited in the OP is not being reported elsewhere. I think at this time it is alarmist.:shrug:

[Mojorabbit]

18. I really like flu wiki It has everything!

and the flu clinic at current events http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40 . I also like the effect measure blog. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

[Hoping4Change]

34. Thanks for the links.

[The Backlash Cometh]

24. Deja Vu.

I was just thinking about the early days of AIDS...

[lonestarnot]

71. Dejavuwhoflu?

[gatorboy]

5. "H5N1 has already killed more than 120 people worldwide since 2003."

Well at that rate, I guess it'll take the bird flu a half a million years to hit the U.N.'s 150 million number... :P

(or something like that...Someone help me wit the math!)

[Mojorabbit]

10. The math is no one knows, it could be worse

and looking at what has happened so far means nothing. It hasn't gone pandemic. Some experts think it killed a hundred million in 1918.
But it has to go pandemic first and then all bets are off if it does.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Read a tad on how epidemic disaese spreads

once it gets out of contianment, watch out

[Art_from_Ark]

95. OK, that's 40 people a year (120 divided by 3 years),

divide that into 150 million, and you get 3.75 million years

[jrw14125]

6. "ARE YOU PREPARED?!?!" - s.b.

[rzemanfl]

8. Things like this make one wish for a reality-based government

that could be trusted, instead of a bunch of lying thieves who play the Jesus card all the time.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. This is NOT the US Government, but the

World Health Organization, whole different critter

[Hoping4Change]

66. The WHO aint' much better. The CBC did a damning

documentary on the WHO's mishandling of SARS and its "collusion" with the Chinese government to keep a lid on it. In fact it was a suspicious US doctor who broke the story. You can read the transcript here,

http://www.cbc.ca/disclosure/archives/031118_sars/world.html

[rzemanfl]

109. What I meant was if this were to happen would you do what

BushCo said to do, or the opposite? You know they'll help the rich live and let everyone else die.

[BlooInBloo]

11. It's ok. They're mostly brown.

[secular humanoid]

12. re: bird flu

if it does go pandemic, could be 150 million in usa. 
let's hope it doesn't happen during bushco's watch. 
we know how well they would handle it.


peace

[Hoping4Change]

28. Hi secular humanoid. Let me be the first to welcome you to DU.

Glad you're here. :hi:

As for the pandemic, credible sources are predicting that it could happen within the next 8 months. What seems to be the lynch pin is that the regular flu season starts in Sept/Oct so the regular flu viruses get exposed to the bird flu virus and its at that point that a human to human strain can develop. Hopefully they are wrong but its very troubling and that the US has such an incompetent admin in charge is really depressing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. Welcome to DU

time to stock up on water

[Avalux]

13. Whoa! Wrong -

"Human-to-human transmission of bird flu has been confirmed in Indonesia (APA). The mutated form of the virus is the danger that scientists expected."

The virus isolated from the Indonesian family HAS NOT mutated to a form that would spread easily from person to person and cause a pandemic.

The family members likely caught the virus from each other because they were living in close quarters and caring for each other while sick.

It seems this article was written to scare the crap out of people -it's not accurate.

[progressivebydesign]

46. Yes. the family lived in a small room with the infected person.

There was no way not to become infected with it, if that makes sense. Even if someone has a disease that has not mutated to human-to-human contact, they can still become infected, much the same way the original person was infected from it by the fowl. I think the countries who are at risk right now for the bird flu, should launch massive public education campaigns to stop people from eating raw birds and preparing meals with raw bird blood (how grotesque is that?). And to keep the fowl out of their houses. This is where it's happening, not just people on the street walking by each other or birds.

[Mojorabbit]

75. These people had no positive h5n1 fowl

and they lived in houses adjacent to eachother. Not all in the same small house.

[Zynx]

15. AHHHHHH! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!

[Mojorabbit]

16. You know, it really is not funny

The virus has slowly been getting more efficient. If it did happen it would be the mother of all disasters.
I wish someone else was president. Cross your fingers it never happens.

[Zynx]

20. There is little that can be done about the transmission of flu.

Flu is so readily spread that there is virtually nothing that can be done.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

32. Let me understand now

IS there a vaccine or not? I worry because my son is a medic and will be on the front lines. I also have two infants in the house.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. No there is no vaccine for the bird flue

the crux is you cannot make the vaccine until you ahe the virus, a catch 22 situation. On the bright side, your son will be among the first to get the vaccine or any other antivirals... again he is on the front lines

[Hoping4Change]

42. There is no vaccine and that is why the morality rates will be so

high.

Vaccines can't be manufactured beforehand because vaccine manufacturers need to have the virus strain before a vaccine can be made.

Furthermore once the strain is identified it takes at least 6 months to produce the vaccine. And given that there is only one company in the US that manufacturers vaccine (making flu vaccine is not profitable) the quantity it can produce will fall short of the need.

Furthermore there will also be massive problems administrating the vaccine to an entire population.

[Avalux]

43. Mortality rates will be high due to the nature of the virus.

H5N1 targets the deep tissue of the lungs and the infection causes the lungs to fill with fluid - different than how human flu infects.

There are 4 pharma cos. that just received a total of 1 billion from our government to develop vaccines for the virus that would cause a pandemic. They have to be cell-based vaccines and you're correct that it will take several months to make after we isolate the virus.

There's no way enough can be manufactured to administer to the entire population; essential workers will get it first; although several months into a pandemic a lot of deaths would have already occurred.

[MercutioATC]

50. Not necessarily.

Successful viruses usually lose some virulence when they mutate in ways that infect a larger population.

However, we're looking at a mortality rate of 50+% now. The 1918 flu had a mortality rate of around 5%. If it mutates and doesn't substantially decrease in virulence, H5N1 is going to be one ugly bug.

[Avalux]

51. That's true, it'll lose some virulence -

could even be lower than 50, but still significantly higher than human influenza. Truth is we really don't and there isn't a person alive on the planet that will have any natural immunity to it. A lot of unknowns despite our best efforts to predict.

[MercutioATC]

53. I agree...it's nothing to ignore or make light of.

The bottom line is staying informed and being prepared are important regardless of the possible threat. I hate to see people panic over this, but I'm also concerned by the number of people who completely dismiss it.

If it DOES become a real problem, people who haven't done some preparations in advance won't have time to do them once the virus is known to have gone human-human.

[Hoping4Change]

58. I think there might be a natural immunity. My grandmother

lived in Neepawa Manitoba in 1918 with her 8 siblings and parents. Very poor living conditions. However no one in her family died of the flu which ravaged Manitoba. My grandmother attributes it to garlic and said that people came to her mother from far around to get garlic as word travelled around that this family had been spared from the flu. I don't know whether it was the garlic or some immunity but it is strange.

[Avalux]

69. That is strange.

Whatever it was - either a natural immunity or the garlic, it worked for them. I expect there would be some people who would do better than others. I should clarify that no one on the planet has ever been exposed to the virus that would cause a pandemic, so they wouldn't have any antibodies to it.

[Hoping4Change]

72. I just remebered something I read

is that people with strong immune systems actually fare far worse because what kills people is the bodies immune response. (The young fare badly in a pandemic because of their robust immune systems). I recall the article was warning people against bolstering their immune systems.

[Avalux]

74. Yes -

if a person has a very strong immune response, the body would essentially attack itself, making the inflammation in the lungs worse.

[MercutioATC]

80. It's called cytokine storm...

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-storm.htm

[Hoping4Change]

108. That's a great site, very informative. Thanks.

:hi:

[Hoping4Change]

59. I think there might be a natural immunity. My grandmother

lived in Neepawa Manitoba in 1918 with her 8 siblings and parents. Very poor living conditions. However no one in her family died of the flu which ravaged Manitoba. My grandmother attributes it to garlic and said that people came to her mother from far around to get garlic as word travelled around that this family had been spared from the flu. I don't know whether it was the garlic or some immunity but it is strange.

[MercutioATC]

81. Possible, but doubtful.

Remember, too...this is an H5 virus. We have NO recorded history of humans ever being exposed to a human-human H5 virus. Thus, no immunity.

[azmouse]

19. Remember to buy tuna and store it under the bed!!

And all will be right with the world....

[Higans]

68. Don't forget the Powdered Milk.....

Even though we would have no clean water to add to the powdered milk.... I guess we could add Tuna Juice... Oh, and Mercury..

[treestar]

21. The new 911

Let's give up all our freedoms and go with martial law. After all, in 1918, it killed everybody!!!!!!!!!!

Before antibiotics.

They can transplant hearts and create clones, but can't handle the flu!

[The Backlash Cometh]

22. At least they now have a virus to work on for a vaccine.

[Mojorabbit]

No, no vaccine

You can't make the vaccine till you know what the final version of the virus will be. It will take years after the six months developing it before there is enough for everyone and the dang pandemic will probably be over by then. They are working on some now and hoping they might convey partial immunity and not having great luck so far.

[Avalux]

27. No - they don't.

Read my post upthread - this article is not accurate. The World Health Organization is not raising the level of pandemic alert.

[Deja Q]

23. On a planet with only 6 billion, 150 MILLION is nothing.

Pity. I'd rather nature wipe out humanity than humanity.

Nature doesn't care.

Mankind claims to care.

Sheesh, the day we trust mother nature to humans only shows where our faith truly lies.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

38. How many died in the 1918 pandemic?

That would help us compare these figures.

I think what I am personally worried about the most is the disruption of our lives. I would assume schools would close, which would mean no income for me or my husband.

[mcscajun]

44. Here's the stats - from an earlier post of mine at DU this month

"Influenza has surpassed AIDS as a lethal killer and contributes to an average 36,000 annual U.S. deaths, largely because of a vulnerable aging population for whom the vaccine is often ineffective..." -- CDC, Jan. 2003.

"The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 20-50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 in the United States. The pandemic’s most striking feature was its unusually high death rate among otherwise healthy people aged 15-34." -- CDC, Oct. 2005.

In the 1918 pandemic, 28% of Americans fell ill (not died, simply fell ill from influenza). Given our current population, IF we had a similar rate of illness (NOT that anyone is presuming or predicting that, but some models have taken that figure to begin a worst-case scenario) that would be 84 million Americans ill. Even if no one died, that would be chaotic. Now, presume a worst-case scenario where 50% who fall ill die; that's 42 million dead. Lesser case, 25% die; that's 21 million dead. Better case scenario, 10% die; that's 8.4 million dead. Best case scenario, 2% die: that's 1,680,000 dead.

Not ONE of those numbers is comforting, and all of them, even the smallest, dwarf annual domestic flu-related deaths by some order of magnitude.

All this said, I am NOT fear-mongering, I am NOT panicking; I merely point to the fact that Bush couldn't protect us from an oncoming train, much less a pandemic. The fact that he and his minions are gleefully exploiting this for their own revolting economic and political purposes should not blind anyone to the potential, I say again, potential threat. If Chimpy were the only one yammering about this while throwing feces at Americans, I'd say "Bah, Humbug" with all the other doubters. But he's not...the EU takes this more seriously, governments elsewhere and the WHO take this more seriously, than do we.

All of this may never happen; and I'd be among the happiest to be thought foolish and gullible in that event. So I won't rely on our useless present Federal government, and I'll take rational, considered measures to prepare myself for the possibility, while ignoring any and all pronouncements by BushCo.

It beats dying...by some order of magnitude. :)

[progressivebydesign]

48. I thought much of the American deaths were due to the war at the same time

Meaning.. the close quarters of the staggering amounts of young people in the military at that time, contributed to those numbers. Also... 1918 was not exactly the height of medical advances, was it?

[mcscajun]

52. WWI casualty figures

Battle deaths: 53,402
Other deaths in service (nontheater): 63,114

The homecoming troops were one of the vectors spreading the disease, and certainly we didn't have the antibiotics we do now, so many died of secondary infections.

However, we can't go patting ourselves on the back about modern medicine, either. We now have a host of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, air travel to spread any disease much more rapidly than in 1918, and a great many people in this country who are dependent on modern transportation and technology for the basics of living. It's not like the early part of the last century when farming was still pretty much everywhere to one degree or another.

Plus, we've got Bush. Lucky us. :sarcasm:

I read an older article from WIRED magazine yesterday on computer modeling of possible disease progression; I'll post their thoughts on this if I can find it. I found the story online; I'll post an excerpt and a link shortly.

[mcscajun]

55. Teraflops vs. Bird Flu

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1284602&mesg_id=1285357

[Hoping4Change]

61. In US, about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000 died

from the Spanish Flu. From Wikipedia

[mcscajun]

65. Check post #44.

I said that already. :)

[Art_from_Ark]

99. In 1918, the US was still essentially a 3rd world country

by today's standards. Sanitation and personal hygiene were still novel concepts in a lot of places (a lot of people still didn't wash their hands after bowel movements, etc.), food was still iffy even though it was 12 years after the passage of the Pure Food and Drug Act, and most of today's medical technology that exists today was still yet to be discovered.

[Hoping4Change]

45. Estimated 21 million people died worldwide in the 1918 pandemic.

One reason for the higher estimation now is that with modern transportation virsuses can spread over the globe within weeks.

[MercutioATC]

49. Previous estimates may be low...a higher number is now being looked at.

"The global death toll from the 1918 flu was long pegged at 20 million, but most experts now think that grossly low. They talk of 50 million, perhaps 100 million."

http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/magazine/archive/Mag_Fall04/prologues/index.html

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

25. experts say it could destroy civilization as fast as george w. bush

and that's scary

[Taxloss]

26. Bear in mind that millions die from flu every year.

And many more die from malaria and AIDS.

[Avalux]

29. And then there's Cholera -

As of 23 May 2006, Angola has reported a total of 38,897 cases and 1437 deaths (case fatality rate (CFR) 3.6%). In the last 24 hours, 303 new cases including 7 deaths have been reported. Twelve out of 18 provinces are affected; of all cases, 51% have occurred in Luanda and 19% in Benguela province.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_25/en/index.html

[SPKrazy]

30. Ahead Of The News Cycle?

or just making it up?

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

[Avalux]

36. I'd say jumping to conclusions.

Part of the article is correct, but the virus has not mutated, and it hasn't spread outside the Indonesian cluster. So no need to panic yet.

[MercutioATC]

47. Irresponsible reporting...still doesn't diminish the real threat.

What we're seeing in Indonesia are cluster infections. That indicates an Alert Level of 3 or possibly 4 on the WHOs alert scale:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/

The estimate of 150M dead was if the epidemic reaches level 6.


HOWEVER

The virus is spreading faster as time goes by, both in range and in the dumber of infections:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_05_23/en/index.html


In its present state, H5N1 poses a minimal threat to humans. As the number of infections increases, however, the possibility of mutation into a virus with efficient human-to-human transmission also increases. That's the real concern.


As with any potential threat, the best course of action remains...

don't panic...

stay informed...

be prepared.

[mike_c]

79. yep-- here's the update from the WHO itself....

Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman’s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.

All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.

Both the Ministry of Health and WHO are concerned about the situation in Kubu Sembelang and have intensified investigation and response activities. Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community. To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.

It's too early to tell, but it's clear that this cluster has the epidemiologists concerned.

[SaveElmer]

84. They have gotten past this as well...

They are now saying:

1. There is no mutation, both WHO and the CDC have confirmed

2. There have been no cases outside of this family, including among neighbors and Health care workers

3. WHO will not be raising the pandemic alert level because there is no fundamental change in the way or ease with which the virus infects humans

4. They now think the original infection was from sick poultry

5. Members of this family were in close intimate contact with sick members of the famil, including spending nights together in a small roomy

6. You may want to get your news from somewhere other than Azerbaijan...to the OP..

[Mojorabbit]

86. They are saying there is no significant mutation

Effect measure has a write up on that that you might find interesting. http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/
how have you been?

[SaveElmer]

88. Hanging in there...

Been runnin around like a crazy man trying to finish up my school work...finally got it done though and have graduated. I can spend a summer reading what I want to and not what I have to for a change. Hope all is well with you!

Yeah I did see this...I think maybe Revere is analyzing WHO's public comments a bit too closely. These statements WHO makes are primarily aimed at the public so don't really try to get too detailed, though I did see Maria Cheng say no significant mutation. Viruses mutate all the time of course, and WHO's track record does suggest they have a pretty good handle on what is significant and what isn't in this case. I guess I am just not as suspicious of them as some are.

The fact that there are no other infections in the village now almost a month out from the first, especially considering one of the patients ran away while being treated and came into contact with others, seems to indicate WHO is correct on this point.

Hopefully this will spur Indonesia into more effective action. Up to now they have refused to institute a program of culling citing the expense. And their efforts at educating the public have been abysmal. I know they have some special political challenges, but thats when leaders are supposed to step up.

[Mojorabbit]

94. Congratulations on the graduation!

Glad you are going to have some time off. I think the problem is that virologists admit they still don't know that much about how these things develop. They don't know exactly what kind of mutation it will take for sure. I guess they are learning by the seat of their pants. It does look like it has petered out for now. I hope nothing further happens to the other two clusters there. I don't have much hope that things will change in Indonesia.

[mike_c]

106. that's all pretty much what I expected....

H5N1 going pandemic is a probalisitic event, and the probability remains the same today as it was two years ago.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

54. that does it, my cuckoo is staying in it's

little cuckoo house from now on.

[mike_c]

107. I'll bet Clinton swore something similar....

:spank:

[WindRavenX]

56. it seems to me that it hasn't retained its virulence

Considering the small sample size, it seems that the virulence of the H5N1 that has mutated has not retained its virulence. If this stays true, then it isn't cause for widespread panic because as many posters have correctly pointed out, influenza kills hundreds of thousands a year.

I'm not sold on the level of anxiety.

[mcscajun]

57. Teraflops vs. Bird Flu

The Battle to Stop Bird Flu
Computer simulations have a long history at Los Alamos. They were first deployed at the lab during the Manhattan Project in the 1940s to model nuclear explosions - among the first computer models ever attempted. Early on, they were a coarse tool and no substitute for physical experiments; the physicist Richard Feynman, who worked at the lab in its earliest years, called them "a disease" that would lead scientists into computerized daydreams tangential to the task at hand. But over the next 50 years they became an important instrument at Los Alamos, indispensable to the study of nuclear fusion and rocket propulsion. The 1992 moratorium simply codified that role, making computer models the only game in town. Since then, the lab has built one of the world's largest supercomputing facilities, amassing a total of 85 teraflops of processing power.

(snip)

The most promising application of sim science to real-world policy targets epidemic disease. A mile from the main compound at Los Alamos, in a grade school turned research lab, half a dozen physicists and computer scientists (and one mathematical biologist) are grinding out disease like pepper from a mill. This is EpiSims, an ambitious computer-simulation project that has released anthrax in Houston, sown the bubonic plague in Chicago, and, most recently, spread the flu in Los Angeles.

(snip)

More recently, as attention has turned to DHS's responsibility for acts of God as well as acts of terrorists, EpiSims has begun assessing the threat of avian influenza. With these new simulations, Smith's team is adding even more granularity. They're modeling the health care system down to the hospital bed, to see what happens if flu victims flood hospitals, fill the beds, and then spill back into their homes. They're taking into account slight behavior changes, so if people start wearing surgical masks, SARS-style, disease transmissions in the sim will fall off according to the masks' particulates-per-million filtration rate. The results go to the DHS and straight up the chain, helping inform the ultimate question that looms behind all of Nisac's work. "What do we tell the President?" says DV Rao, who directs the lab's Decision Applications division. At these highest levels, this sort of predictive science is an entirely new and unfamiliar decision-making tool. "I don't know what they make of it now," says Rao. "But in a year, hopefully they're going to say, 'All right. Tell us what we should be doing.'"

(snip)

EpiCast reveals that, in contrast with flu epidemics of decades past, an outbreak today won't progress "like a wave across the country," spreading from town to town and state to state. Instead, no matter where it erupts - Seattle, Chicago, Miami - it will swiftly blanket the nation. "It starts in Chicago one day," Germann says, "and a couple of weeks later it's everywhere at once." Thank the airlines. Even though disease has piggybacked on air travel for decades, we generally had only isolated outbreaks of low-transmission viruses - like when SARS leapt from Hong Kong to Canada in 2003 but failed to spread beyond Toronto. In an epidemic of a highly communicable disease, the airlines' hub network would effectively seed every metropolitan area in the country within a month or two - and then reseed them, repeatedly.


Much more here:
http://wired.com/wired/archive/14.01/birdflu.html

[Initech]

60. They've been talking about bird flu as long as CA's proverbial "big one"

And both are going back as far as I can remember. So far, neither has happened. Quite frankly, I'm not too worried about it.

[Hoping4Change]

63. The fact is that pandemics happen every 50 years or so. The

last flu pandemic happened in 1957 however it was not as virulent as the strain from 1918. BTW the 1918 strain was it seems from birds. So unlike earthquakes pandemics are cyclic which is why this outbreak in birds is so concerning.

[MercutioATC]

83. 1918. 1957-58. Yes, it HAS happened.

And this is an H5 virus...we have zero immunity.

In its present state, there's no real reason for worry. It's of concern, however, that H5N1 is growing in terms of both geographical range and number of deaths. Every human infection increases the chance that we'll see an antigen shift and the virus will be more easily transmitted between humans.

Think about it. Viruses are living things...albeit nonintelligent. As living things (sentient or not) nature has provided them with the tools they need for survival. Mutating to maximize their potential for infection is their way of "propagating the species"...it's what all living things do.

H5N1 may very well not mutate into a strain readily spread human-human. However, increased infections in humans (and, actually, pigs) allow an increased chance that it will.

[SaveElmer]

89. Pandemic does not necessarily entail widespread death either...

A pandemic is simply a worldwide epidemic of a virus. The death rate in the 1968 pandemic for example was little higher than a normal flu season.

The word pandemic has come to be synonomous with fatal illness, which is really not accuarate

[MercutioATC]

103. Absolutely correct.

...and there's no guarantee that H5N1 will be the next pandemic virus nor is there any certainty that, if it is, its mortality rate won't substantially decrease.

Absolutely no reason to panic.


My personal barometer, however, is encouraging me to not just write it off. The spread of this virus' geographic footprint and death toll is increasing. In its present form, its mortality rate is in excess of 50%. It has the potential to be a really scary bug.

While we see what heppens, I'm doing what I think everybody should do when faced with a possible threat...don't panic, stay informed, be prepared.

[Recursion]

62. I call BS

This is, what, the 3rd worldwide fatal plague that's been predicted?

This isn't the 19th century anymore. We've beaten single-pathogen diseases.

That seems like a surprising statement, but it's true. We have beaten single-pathogen infectious diseases. Bird flu has only spread to family members and others with very close contact.

AIDS is not a single-pathogen infectious disease. Mad Cow is not a single-pathogen infectious disease. Bird flu is not a single-pathogen infectious disease. All have a microbial component, but all have environmental and toxicological cofactors as well. We're trying to fit 21st-century pegs into 19th-century epidemiological holes.

All these diseases are the results of toxins in our environment, lifestyle, and food. They will continue to focus on small loci of underserved communities and bleed us by a thousand cuts rather than sweeping across the population like a bacillus.

That's just my two cents, anyways.

[Hoping4Change]

67. This is a virus. nt

[Avalux]

70. VIruses and bacteria.

Living organisms, both of them, that have been on this planet for millions of years, long before we were. They evolve and try to survive just like anything else. Viruses do not have DNA and must use the DNA of host cells to reproduce, so mutations often develop over time. It's nature, nothing more, and that's what's happening to H5N1.

[Higans]

64. If it goes Pandemic, I hope BushCo. is the first to get it.

No one would be more deserving.

[Mojorabbit]

76. No he will be in his bunker with thousands of doses of tamiflu

and a team of physicians with state of the art medical facilities.

[leesa]

73. Booga. Booga.

120 dead in 3 years.

[MercutioATC]

82. Maybe, but doesn't it make sense to be aware of it and to prepare?

According to the WHO, both the range of infection and deaths are accelerating.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_05_23/en/index.html


Rather than write it off with a "Booga Booga", doesn't it make more sense to stay informed and be prepared?

[Auntie Bush]

77. I heard that they didn't know yet if the family got it

from each other or if they all got it from their own chickens...
unless there was more recent news of the results that I didn't see. So was it confirmed that it was spread human to human or is someone jumping to conclusions for sensationalism? I would really like to know.

[Mojorabbit]

78. Here is a good article to bring you up to date

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aiu7Xi_3TZEY&refer=asia
They have no evidence it was from anything in the environment. They are assuming they did get it from eachother. They also admit in this article that there probably has been a half a dozen cases of human to human transmission. This kind of pisses me off as I have been following this thing for a couple of years and thought so myself from what has been published but they downplayed it. Can't panic the public you know.

[SaveElmer]

85. They now believe the original infection...

Was from sick poultry. The woman sold vegetables at an open air market where there had been sick poultry.

I have seen WHO mention these other H2H cases in Thailand and VietNam before...

There is no fundamental change in the virus, the way or ease with which it is transmitted.

If anything, this just underscores what a poor job Indonesia is doing with this...

One of the sick went to a witch doctor for treatment, another ran away from the hospital.

[Mojorabbit]

90. Can you give me a link where there were sick poultry

at the market? I hadn't seen that.

[SaveElmer]

91. Here is one...

This is of course informed speculation since we are a month out from the first infection, the birds would have been disposed of by now. However, given that there are no other clusters, it is very likely the infection had to have come from an avian source. There is also speculation that bird feces used for fertilizer in the area may have been a source.

Fact is they will probably never get to a definitive answer since any evidence has long been disposed of.

This stement below is particularly disturbing to me, and shows how poor Indonesia has been in this situation

"On Monday, a half-dozen protesters beheaded a chicken and drank its blood to show local authorities that poultry was not the source of the problem."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/25/AR2006052500834_2.html

[Mojorabbit]

93. They did rule out fertilizer. I saw that days ago.

The article says she MAY have encountered a sick chicken but no sick chickens have been found int he village. It is like the case in Vietnam when the only sick bird they found was a pet in a neighborhood house in a cage no where near the victum.

Promed has this.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/may2406cluster.html
For the first time, evidence suggests that the H5N1 avian influenza virus
may have passed from one person to another and on to a 3rd, according to a
World Health Organization (WHO) official. Referring to the extended-family
case cluster in Indonesia, the WHO's Maria Cheng told the Canadian Press
(CP) yesterday, "This is the first time we have seen cases that have gone
beyond one generation of human-to-human spread."

The WHO said in an online statement yesterday that analysis of viruses from
patients in the cluster had shown no evidence of changes that could lead to
efficient human-to-human transmission. But another WHO official expressed
serious concern about the cluster. Peter Cordingley, spokesman for the
WHO's Western Pacific region, quoted in a Reuters report today, said, "This
is the most significant development so far in terms of public health. We
have never had a cluster as large as this. We have not had in the past what
we have here, which is no explanation as to how these people became
infected . We can't find sick animals in this
community, and that worries us."


It goes on to quote our "esteemed" Dr. Julie Gerberding (choke) saying
"Clearly the source of
infection likely was an infected poultry exposure." Concurring with the
view that at least two generations of transmission occurred, she added,
"The person who initially got the infection from poultry may have been the
source of transmission to other family members, and there may have been
subsequent transmission to other family members." She said the family
members had close contact with one another, and there have been no
infections in healthcare workers or others outside the family.

Gerberding said that a 2-generation, or "person-to-person-to-person,"
transmission chain is significant in that it raises the "worrisome
possibility" of a change in the virus, but added that investigators have
not found evidence of a change.

This woman makes me want to scream.

[SaveElmer]

97. This is all true...

But you do have to look at the situation as it exists, and circumstantial evidence to draw the best conclusion you can.

First there are no other clusters, and indeed no other infections in the area. This woman had to have caught it somewhere. If it was from another person, there would be other infections apparent and there are not.

Second, she may have caught it from a non-avian animal. Could have been a pig. WHO says there is no reassortnment of the virus (yes I do trust their statements on this), so we will not know for sure. This is less likely than infection from poultry I would think.

Third, we are left with an avian source for the original infection. This woman worked in an open air market where foul were sold. Considering any actual evidence would have been long ago destroyed, this is probably the best they are gonna be able to do.

However the key is: No mutation making the virus easier to transmit (both genetic evidence and epidemiological evidence back this up.) It has been nearly a month since the first infection.

The fact that it went from person to person to person is not that significant unless it were accompanied by evidence that the virus had mutated into an easily transmitted form.

All it means in this case as far as I can see is that these family members did not know the dangers of being in that intimate contact with an infected person, or did not believe the warnings they were recieving. Given Indonesia's track record my money would be on the former.

What is frustrating is that there has been such good progress in other areas of the world, that it is a shame Indonesia has allowed this to progress as far as it has.

[solinvictus]

87. Preparedness..

It's still not a bad idea to purchase extra shelf-stable food, water, juice, vitamins, and such. We're coming up on hurricane season here in the South, so since Ivan I've had a tendency to keep extra on hand anyway.

[MercutioATC]

104. ...and preparedness is as relevant wherever you live.

South or east coasts? Hurricanes.

North? Snowstorms.

Desert west/southwest? Power outages. (applies to the midwest, too)


Wherever you live, there's a chance you will have to live your life a little differently from time to time. It's smart to prepare for that. You don't have to be a bird flu "nut" to realize the value of being self-sufficient for a few days.

[Matariki]

92. I call BULLSHIT on your fear mongering.

I heard someone from the WHO on npr TODAY and he said the the potential threat was at level 3 (level 6 is pandemic) - that the human to human transmission happened between only 3 family members and that DOES NOT make a pandemic.


on edit: Here's a link:

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4923687

"The fact that this virus is very easy to kill, it can be killed with plain old soap and water, it can be killed with any type of disinfectant including household bleach," said Fulton, an Associate Professor at the MSU College of Veterinary Medicine and an avian specialist. "So if it ever does come to the U.S., it's going to be very easy to kill and easy to control at least in terms of the virus itself."

[Mojorabbit]

96. The news article was over the top

Some reporter needs reining in but this quote,
So if it ever does come to the U.S., it's going to be very easy to kill and easy to control at least in terms of the virus itself."
If it is in a pandemic situation this is baloney. There will be no controlling it. I mean, how many times have you caught the flu from a coworker or family member? Sure you can kill it on a kitchen counter but that is not the worry.

[Matariki]

100. The point of the article is that the conditions don't exist here

for it to develop and spread. And I'm assuming it's about as bad as the flu, which can also kill people with weak immune systems. but if you need something *else* to worry about and be afraid of, knock yourself out.

[SaveElmer]

101. Well you are wrong about this...

I am skeptical that this will turn into a pandemic virus...however...

There is no way to know how dangerous it might be if it does. So far it has been extremely deadly in humans. This is largely because it is a bird disease and not a human one. If it became a human disease it would undoubtedly weaken, but there is no real way to know how much.

[smartvoter]

98. I just read that they were saying the family may

have contracted it from being together in cramped quarters while they were so sick, but it did not mean it had mutated.

[SaveElmer]

102. That is correct...

Which is why they are not raising the pandemic alert level.

[sable302]

105. the WHO hasn't a too good record

in the pandemic department. Remember SARS?

I call BS on armageddon.