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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 07:53 AM
Original message
What Happens When A Paper Currency Fails?
Read, learn and inwardly digest as they used to say at school. Please note that the following occured only 12 years ago.

http://www.rogershermansociety.com/yugoslavia.htm

The Worst Episode of Hyperinflation in History: Yugoslavia 1993-94

Thayer Watkins, Ph.D. an instructor and graduate advisor in the Economics Department of SAN JOSÉ STATE UNIVERSITY

Between October 1, 1993 and January 24, 1995 prices increased by 5 quadrillion percent. That’s a 5 with 15 zeroes after it.

snip

Under Tito, Yugoslavia ran a budget deficit that was financed by printing money. This led to a rate of inflation of 15 to 25 percent per year. After Tito, the Communist Party pursued progressively more irrational economic policies. These policies and the breakup of Yugoslavia (Yugoslavia now consists of only Serbia and Montenegro) led to heavier reliance upon printing or otherwise creating money to finance the operation of the government and the socialist economy. This created the hyperinflation.


By the early 1990s the government used up all of its own hard currency reserves and proceded to loot the hard currency savings of private citizens. It did this by imposing more and more difficult restrictions on private citizens' access to their hard currency savings in government banks.

.............foward dear reader and learn by example :

The government tried to counter the inflation by imposing price controls. But when inflation continued, the government price controls made the price producers were getting so ridiculous low that they simply stopped producing. In October of 1993 the bakers stopped making bread and Belgrade was without bread for a week. The slaughter houses refused to sell meat to the state stores and this meant meat became unvailable for many sectors of the population. Other stores closed down for inventory rather than sell their goods at the government mandated prices. When farmers refused to sell to the government at the artificially low prices the government dictated, government irrationally used hard currency to buy food from foreign sources rather than remove the price controls. The Ministry of Agriculture also risked creating a famine by selling farmers only 30 percent of the fuel they needed for planting and harvesting.

..............to the point of sheer farce :

The telephone bills for the government operated phone system were collected by the postmen. People postponed paying these bills as much as possible and inflation reduced their real value to next to nothing. One postman found that after trying to collect on 780 phone bills he got nothing so the next day he stayed home and paid all of the phone bills himself for the equivalent of a few American pennies.


Here is another illustration of the irrationality of the government's policies: James Lyon, a journalist, made twenty hours of international telephone calls from Belgrade in December of 1993. The bill for these calls was 1000 new new dinars and it arrived on January 11th. At the exchange rate for January 11th of 1 DM = 150,000 dinars it would have cost less than one German pfennig to pay the bill. But the bill was not due until January 17th and by that time the exchange rate reached 1 DM = 30 million dinars. Yet the free market value of those twenty hours of international telephone calls was about $5,000. So despite being strapped for hard currency, the government gave James Lyon $5,000 worth of phone calls essentially for nothing.


It was against the law to refuse to accept personal checks. Some people wrote personal checks knowing that in the few days it took for the checks to clear, inflation would wipe out as much as 90 percent of the cost of covering those checks.

The shape of things to come ?







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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 07:57 AM
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1. .....we're on tract and who or what or when will the course change?
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Given perfect knowledge
The People.
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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 07:58 AM
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2. You get Argentina, circa 2002...
Mass chaos.
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enid602 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:11 AM
Original message
Argentina
The only difference is that Argentina is energy independant, is the world's largest exporter of foodstuffs and has a huge textile industry. Plus a very small population. These factors kept inflation somewhat under control. I hate to see what will happen here.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:07 AM
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4. I think with the idiots in charge we should look more at a Free Trade
disaster. How about the potato famine in Ireland. But of course we don't have an America to move to.
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TreasonousBastard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:08 AM
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5. Well...
it's a bit of a stretch to compare that to what's going on here. Even during the Depression, our reponse to the problems, although wrong, didn't lead to anything like the German hyperinflation. Even if we had loosened the money supply, as in retrospect we should have done, it wouldn't have caused that kind of problem.

And, we don't have the system of price controls and state stores that the Soviet bloc had. That caused immense problems throughout the bloc, and in some places still does.

What too many forget is that private banks, not the Fed, create our money supply, and cash is the least part of it. The Fed, through the discount rate and reserve rquirements, does have some control over the rate of growth, but any economic activity creates "new" money in the normal course of events. And this is not in itself a bad thing.







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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:09 AM
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6. Talk about fearmongering
A gradual dollar correction has been long in the books, i'm sure the backroom
agreement is to let it slide gently ... and it'll probably get out of hand,
but a meltdown like that is unlikely to the absurd.
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. All countries should have learned
from events in Germany in the early twenties. Few if any have actually done so. The exact analogy here is the perpetual printing of fiat money. A thread on this site which alluded to yet another whole bundle being printed was withdrawn when it found that the foundation was suspect. The fact that it never re-appeared under another guise leads me to suspect that it was not just a rumour - the news had just been completely suppressed.
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PATRICK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:11 AM
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7. One difference
Edited on Mon May-15-06 08:13 AM by PATRICK
The socialist response would be to make things initially LOOK more popular by fixing prices. The GOP would be even more likely to raise taxes before that horror and wages are already largely suppressed with only squeaky trickles of raised minimum wages to greet the tumbling middle class. Also, our devalued dollar is met with great resistance to raising prime rates and inflation.

I'm no expert, but it seems we would be approaching disaster from the opposite direction, and unlike Yugoslavia, the Bush team can(it always has the immediate proclivity) exert the arrogant power of global blackmail to force others to let our fantasies ride. This dictatorship has a different set of ideas and pals and its particular control over the populace is different. In the analogy we are approaching the stage where the Bush fix will not work and reactions will set in.

The Bush team actually wants to play America's last cards immediately, but anything else is too hard and too rational and by now too dangerous to expose their ultimate power trip to an accounting.

And off the point a bit this raises the certainty that they find playing the nuclear card a necessary part of their agenda as well. When do we, impotent as we presently are, reach the breaking point? Too late for most of the damage.
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:16 AM
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8. Moscow 1993 had some crazy currency. nt
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robcon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
10. In Argentina in the late 80's...
prices would change at least once, while you were waiting on line at the supermarket! (I heard some stories when I went to Argentina a few years ago.)
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-15-06 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. In Germany 1920's
a old lady walking down the road saw a shop with with bread for sale. She was carrying a basket full of paper money. She left the basket and the money in the kerb and joined a queue in the hope of getting to the front before the bread sold out. When she went back for her basket it had gone - the money was still there lying in the kerb. The rate of inflation was such that if you went into a coffee shop and bought a couple of coffees you didn't know if you'd be able to afford the bill when you left.

Obviously the above are extreme cases and I have no concept of the USA reaching such situations.

Current events could however lead , eventually , to the cessation of printing fiat money to fund wars etc.
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