Is Obama already unelectable?

[jackson_dem]

Please K and R the crosspost in GDP. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5161339

We have a batch of new polls out for the key battleground states of Florida (PPP), Ohio (two polls), and Missouri (SurveyUSA). There is also a poll for Kentucky (SurveyUSA). These polls reflect what the national general election polls have shown: Obama's electability is tanking. He started out beating the rethugs easily and once averaged 9-10 points better than Clinton against McCain. Now, as folks learn more about him and he takes a few punches, he actually does worse than Clinton in the poll average against McCain. That is a shift of 6 points in a month alone, showing his glass jaw. If he is this vulnerable in the primaries how bad will he perform after the rethugs send out their heavy artillery during a general? Even Dukakis was able to absorb a Willie Horton attack during the primaries.

Obama has some very fundamental problems, especially with Democrats. It is not inconceivable that if he is the nominee he would bleed away as much Democratic support as Mondale did (24%). The other groups he struggles with are women, whites, seniors, Latinos, and working folks. Unfortunately these polls are not broken down by income.

His negatives will only get higher so his electability numbers still haven't bottomed out...

Clinton's comparative number will be in parentheses.

Florida

Overall: McCain 50, Obama 39 (47-43 with Clinton)

Women: Obama 39 (48 for Clinton)
Democrats: Obama 60, McCain 25 (74-12 with Clinton)

Whites: Obama 31 (he loses by 26, Clinton keeps it down to 11)
Latinos: Obama 41, McCain 52 (Clinton ties McCain with Latinos)

Senior citizens: Obama 33, McCain 54 (Clinton wins 47-43)

Missouri

Overall: Obama 39, McCain 53 (McCain 48, Clinton 46)

Women: Obama 40, McCain 51 (Clinton 52, McCain 40)
He doesn't do much better with men either, just like in FL. He gets 38% and keeps McCain only 3 points lower.

Democrats: Obama 62, McCain 28 (Clinton 83, McCain 10)
he does only 6 points better with rethugs and 2 points better with indies.

Whites: Obama 34, McCain 57 (McCain 52, Clinton 42)
Latinos: Obama actually does four points better among Latinos in MS, a rare state in which he does well with Latinos. Unfortunately, those states are always the ones with small Latino populations. He does poorly, relatively speaking, with them in states like California, Florida, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arizona. Winning the Latino vote in Iowa isn't going to do anything for us but losing it in California, Nevada, or New Jersey will really hurt us.
Other (chiefly Asians): Obama 11, McCain 72 (Clinton 64, McCain 21)

Senior citizens: Obama 36, McCain 55 (Mc 52, Clinton 44)

Obama gets 24% in one of the four regions of the state. He gets 32% in another. Clinton's worst regions are 39 and 43%.

Kentucky

Overall: Obama 28, McCain 64 (McCain 53, Clinton 43)

Women: Obama 29, McCain 61 (Clinton 49, McCain 45)
He actually does worse with men, getting a scant 26% while Clinton gets 37%.

Democrats: Obama 41, McCain 48 (Clinton 60, McCain 34)
Yes you read that correctly. Barack Obama actually loses the Democratic vote in Kentucky. Obamacons? He gets 8% of rethugs. Clinton gets 23%. Obama does get 53% of indies--but Clinton gets 59%.

whites: Obama 24, McCain 67 (McCain 54, Clinton 42)
Latinos: Obama 26, McCain 74 (Clinton 86, McCain 14)
They both get thrashed among "others". Obama does only 8 points better with blacks.

Senior citizens: Obama 29, McCain 65 (McCain 60, Clinton 35)

Kentucky has four regions. Obama gets 18% and 20% in two. His peak is 36%. Clinton's worst regions are 31 and 41%. Her peak is 55% and she ties in a second region.

Ohio

SurveyUSA

Overall: Obama 43, McCain 50 (Clinton 50, McCain 44)

Women: Obama 44, McCain 48 (Clinton 53, McCain 44)
Clinton actually does better with men (she wins 47-45, Obama loses 52-42).

Democrats: Obama 66, McCain 25 (Clinton 80, McCain 12)
Obamacons? Clinton actually does 1% better with rethugs and holds McCain down 1% more than Obama with indies.

Whites: Obama 37, McCain 56 (Clinton 48, McCain 48)
This is another rare state where Obama does better with Latinos. Unfortunately, once again it is a state with a small Latino population. He doesn't do well, relative to Clinton, with Latinos in any state so far with a large Latino population.

Seniors: Obama 36, McCain 55 (Clinton 51, McCain 44)

Ohio has six regions. Obama gets 14% in SE Ohio. Yes. 14%. Clinton gets 38% in that region. Obama wins only Cleveland. Clinton wins three regions and is a dead heat in another.

PPP

Overall: Obama 41, McCain 49 (Clinton 45, McCain 45)

Women: Obama 43, McCain 44 (Clinton 53, McCain 35)
They both get 38% of men.

Democrats: Obama 62, McCain 27 (Clinton 76, McCain 12)
Obamacons? Obama gets 12% of rethugs, only five points more than Clinton (nationally he gets a whole 3% more--as much as Gore did! Remember Gorecons?). Obama loses indies with 37%. Clinton gets 33%.

Whites: Obama 36, McCain 54 (Clinton 46, McCain 46)

Seniors: Obama 42, McCain 49 (Clinton 48, McCain 42)

Can the economy save Obama?

He does beat McCain on the economy in some states--but not by nearly as much as Clinton does. Obama simply has no economic record. We have to beat the rethugs on the economy to win and Obama especially has to since he can't rely on foreign policy or Iraq as much due to the points he automatically loses among many for being someone who began running for president in his second year in Washington.

Clinton's weakness

She does consistently worse with black voters than Obama but when you add up the numbers that pales in comparison to Obama's weaknesses.

[goldcanyonaz]

1. Great OP! Thanks Jackson.

[zabet]

2. I have said for quite some time..

if it makes it to convention,
the Party elders and the Super-
delegates will see just how
unelectable Obama really is.
Even before Wright, he outspent
Hillary in ads over 2:1, he
outspent her in donations to
delegates by a very large margin
and he has not been able to put
Hillary out of contention.
Hillary polls high in states
historically needed to win the
GE, that is another plus.
Add to all of this the fact that
super-delegates who are already
pledged....CAN change their minds,
Legally.

[vireo]

3. So may pledged delegates

Don't forget the "good conscience" clause. It sounds like the Obama campaign doesn't want this getting around. :D
http://www.newsweek.com/id/123495

[zabet]

4. Exactly.

The Obama campaign
does not want this
known far and wide
so they can say the
nomination was 'stolen'
or was not given to
him due to 'racist'
reasoning, when in
fact, they all have
the right to change
their mind and do what
they think is best for
the party and the country.

[LadyVT]

5. I'm starting to get scared. Really scared. I just read an article in the NYT that

basically forecasted doom for the Clinton campaign, now that the DNC has put the MI revote in the hands of Obama. Who, of course, is silent.

I'm feeling strongly that Obama's campaign is in the hands of some powers that be behind the scenes, who are intent on getting him elected. I used to think the idea of him as Manchurian candidate was far-fetched, but the more I see, the more I am suspicious. I felt this way during 2000 and 2004, as well, but not like this. This is just beyond the pale.

She is behind him only 150 delegates, and Obama is tanking. Salon.com has an article on what the GOP strategy will be to beat Obama. It's obvious he's going to lose that match-up. This should be an easy call. Why isn't it? The DNC must know this. But then why aren't they moving to seat those delegates Hillary already won?

[anamandujano]

6. Maybe he will see the writing on the wall and pack it in for the sake of

his future political career.

edit to add--Would he want to be the butt of political pundits for the next 20 plus years?

[shimmergal]

8. If he'd suspend it voluntarily,

and do some good things in the Senate, he'd be in a great position to try again in future.

If he runs in the GE and loses, his name will be toast as far as running again. Democrats aren't very kind to their "loser" candidates. The only one in recent years who could have had a reasonable chance at a second run is Al Gore, and of course he didn't _really_ lose in 2000.

[LadyVT]

12. You are right. He should suspend immediately if he wants to run again.

[LulaMay]

10. I think his ego is already too big. Though he looked a bit shaken during & since 'the speech'

[LulaMay]

9. My opinion has been that Dean, Kennedy, Kerry, other 'big-wigs' have been intent on Obama, and are

so invested in their decision, they may just take us all down with their rotten ship.

EGOS.

It's obvious they have been maneuvering and helping him from the git go.


But we'll see.

[Justyce]

14. My mom told me a long time ago,

Obama is too unqualified, young, and inexperienced, and with Kennedy, Kerry, etc., really pushing for him even though he's not qualified, it's because they want a puppet in the White House & they are determined to get him the nomination.

[okasha]

7. If becomes clear that Obama will continue to tank in the primaries ,

and in the poll match-ups with McCain, at some point the party elders will step in and do an intervention. Obama will "suspend" his campaign "for the good of the party," whether he wants to or not.

[LadyVT]

11. I agree! (with everyone's comments!)..and he does look deflated tonight. Does

anyone else wonder what Obama was thinking? I mean... did he genuinely believe this stuff would never come out, despite it being for sale on the church's website? And if he did know it would come out, did he just think people wouldn't care about it? ?

[Hoof Hearted]

13. YES.

[kikiek]

15. Yes he is!