Bullish Looking Charts: S&P 500, Nasdaq, BKX, Gold

[slipslidingaway]

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/bullish-looking-charts-s-500-nasdaq-bkx.html

FWIW one person's view...

"Here are some bullish looking charts we are looking at. The first two show Ellliot Wave counts that we have been tracking for some time. For some background theory on Elliott Wave, please see my October 10 post S&P 500 Crash Count.

click on chart for sharper image

In Elliott Wave terms we are looking for a "wave <4>" bounce. The short term implications are bullish with possible retrace targets of 1008 for a 38.2% retrace or 1090 for a 50% retrace of "wave <3>". The long term implications are rather nasty. Our "Wave <5>" target back down is approximately 600..."


S&P 500 Crash Count

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count.html

"In Elliott Wave terms The S&P 500 is in wave 3 of 3 down. I will attempt to explain this in terms those not familiar with Elliott Wave can understand. Here goes:

Wave 3's are long and strong and unrelenting. They can be in either direction. When wave 3 is headed up, everyone is waiting for a pullback to get in. That pullback never occurs.

When wave 3 is down everyone wants a rally to either get out or get short. Those rallies either occur intraday or they do not occur at all.

Wave 3 of 3 is where everything you do is right or everything you do is wrong, depending on whether you are long or short. Playing for countertrend moves is highly unlikely to be a winning move for anyone but the extremely nimble.

With that backdrop, here is a chart of the S&P 500 with the wave 3 of 3 "crash count" highlighted..."

[slipslidingaway]

1. S&P 500 Crash Count - Wave Four Triangle - January 09, 2009

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/s-500-crash-count-wave-four-triangle.html

"...If the above count proves to be the correct count, it would imply that a wave 5 decline is on its way below the November low. Whether or not that is the correct count, it is a valid count that commands respect..."

[slipslidingaway]

2. Chart from link above...

[slipslidingaway]

3. Update...

see link for charts.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/another-bear-market-rally-or-something.html

"...Bear in mind the market is not rallying because of this nonsense. The market is rallying because at a minimum, it was technically very oversold and was ready to rally. Furthermore, this rally has the potential to be much stronger than most think.

...People have been asking for an update of the E-Wave count I have been following. The last update I offered was on January 9, 2009 in S&P 500 Crash Count - Wave Four Triangle.

On October 28, 2008 in S&P 500 Crash Count - Wave 3 Update I posted this interpretation of what might happen.


...The above idea worked pretty well. Moreover, it now appears as if the S&P 500 has traced out 5 clean waves down, ending at 666. If that is the case and wave 5 does not extend, it will not be fun to be net short at this point whether or not lower lows are ultimately coming later or not.

For now, let's party like we have profits, whether we do or not."

[slipslidingaway]

4. Chartology – Is The Bottom In?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29619793

...First DeGraaf explains that we need a 35% rally just to get back to the 200-day moving average. Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1929-1934, he says not since 1931 has the S&P been so far from its 200-moving day average. DeGraaf interprets the pattern to mean the market is extremely oversold.

Then, he looks at the AAII bear readings from the last 20 years. The patterns reveal that 70% of investors are bearish and that the retail crowd is tuned out.

Also, he tells us the number of new lows on the S&P has been contracting over the past several months. Even though we're 140 points below where we were in October the number of stocks making those lows is about half. That's a bullish divergence.

...What’s the bottom line?

At a minimum, we’re in a bear market bounce. Don't be short. To see DeGraaf’s complete interview as well as this charts used in his analysis please watch the video above."