New Poll: 2008 Dem candidate

[ProSense]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2786598&mesg_id=2786598


Does anyone else find this hilarious?

[beachmom]

1. Who the hell wants Hillary is my question?

I only know one person who likes her, and she's from NY state.

I think I won't look at polls. They just will get me down . . .

[karynnj]

8. Lots of people are thought to answer as the

pollster wants and people have heard Hillary Hillary Hillary. (In fact right this moment MSNBC has a Hillary haigioraphy on.)

[wisteria]

15. She is the press candidate. They want to add a little bit of

excitement into the race and Hillary will do this. The first woman to run for President, former First Lady to a popular President- wow what a story. Never mind that she may be just a awful candidate and would be a disaster as a President. A Hillary run will keep everyone tuned in.

[JohnKleeb]

18. My mom said she would vote for her in a primary and general election today

but that's canceled out by my grandfather who wouldn't even go to the polls at least for president if shes the nominee, guy's been voting a solid dem ticket as far as I know since Adlai Stevenson. I don't take her and McCain's early leads seriously honestly.

[politicasista]

2. What happened to 06?

Why are people obsessed over the 08 primary schedule?:shrug:

[wisteria]

3. I am not looking or reading to much into polls right now.

i don't trust them, these are based on name recognition, and if I recall, there was a time a year before the 04 election where Lieberman was a leading contender for the Presidency.

Let's wait and see what happens in November. The rest will fall into place.

[JI7]

4. you are right, just as it wouldn't matter much even if Kerry was ahead

what matters more will be polls which ask questions throughout the primary about what voters think of candidates. questions such as who they consider to be a good leader, like personally, agree with on issues etc.

the trend in these numbers will probably be a better indicator of who could win than the numbers today for who one will vote for.

[Mass]

5. Interesting results of a Iowa straw poll here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2785927&mesg_id=2785927

Personnally, I like these results because, even if it shows Kerry 3rd or 4th, this is still very good.

In both cases, Hillary is first, confirming the name recognition factor.

Edwards comes tied with her in Iowa, not that surprising given that he was at the same fair the same day or the next day and that it was at least his 11th visit. (Biden was and a couple of other potential candidates. Kerry was not). I wished that Kerry had a little more time to talk to people directly as well.

In Iowa, Kerry ties with the governor of the state and nobody else is even close of these four. So, yes it is a straw poll and means little, but I dont find these results that bad, particularly considering the Pew Poll.

In the Pew Poll, Kerry is tied with Edwards (given all the free positive media Edwards got, it is good for Kerry). Before him is Gore, who has said he will not run.

So, it will be a difficult battle for Kerry if he decides to run, but he has a lot of good cards in hand.

[TayTay]

6. Top five. That's good

This will change. 2003 was a very volatile year for polls and it all changed anyway in 2004. So, Kerry's name is in the top five, he has the money and motivation (and will) to go for it. We shall see what happens. Couple this with the turnout for that speech in SC and things are looking interesting, don't you think.

[ProSense]

7. Time's Clinton poll

LOVE HER, HATE HER

The prospect of a Hillary-for-president campaign has put much of the Democratic establishment in a bind. The early line is that Hillary would be unstoppable in a Democratic primary but unelectable in a general election. That bet would help explain the curious political subspecies I came across frequently in reporting this story: moneymen who are lining her campaign account even as they say privately they hope she won't run.

Her strategists point out that all she would have to do in November 2008 is win every state John Kerry did, plus one. They consider Ohio and Florida her best opportunities. And there is plenty of encouraging news for her in the latest Time poll. More than half of those surveyed—53% —said they had a favorable impression of her; she registered higher than the other most familiar names in the potential Democratic field, Al Gore (49% ), John Edwards (46% ) and John Kerry (45% ). Her negative ratings (44% ) were lower than either Kerry's or Gore's. Edwards generated fewer negative reviews (31% ), but 23% of those polled said they didn't know enough about him to have an opinion one way or the other. In hypothetical matchups with the preseason g.o.p. favorite, John McCain, Hillary is the only big-name Democrat to make a real race of it, with McCain edging her by just 2 points among registered voters. By comparison, McCain would trounce Kerry by 10 points and Gore by 9.

But what those overall figures do not show is how differently Hillary is viewed in red and blue America and how familiar she already is to voters. Other candidates may have a chance to persuade voters of their merits, but people have pretty much made up their mind about Hillary. Only 3% of those surveyed in the Time poll said they had no opinion of her, positive or negative. She is the inkblot test of a polarized electorate. In the Time poll, Democrats overwhelmingly describe her as a strong leader (77% ) who has strong moral values (69% ). Republicans by and large see an opportunist who would say or do anything to further her political ambitions (68% ) and puts her political interests ahead of her beliefs (60% ). As for independents, more than half (53% ) of those surveyed said they would not support her, with 34% putting themselves in the "definitely not" category. Polls aside, what the Clintons know from experience is this: if Hillary runs, the race will be long and brutal and expensive. There are few names that so ignite the Democratic political base. About a year ago, when party pollster Mark Mellman, who does not work for Senator Clinton, asked a focus group of 10 African-American women to name their all-time political hero, eight picked Hillary, he says.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1229054,00.html

So when Carville said Clinton was a uniter he was spewing BS!

[wisteria]

9. This is nonsense this far out and I will add, the most positive poll

I have seen with a match up between her and McCain. Her polling numbers get better and better- why? Name recognition comes to mind and the press. I am not going to let this upset me, it may even be that people, or the press to be more accurate, would love to see a woman run-not win- but just someone with her well known status and money run. It certainly would make it exciting. They have been throwing her name into the poll mix since 02 and 03.

[karynnj]

10. She was above 40 in the past

then slid in a couple of polls to the mid 30s - this 40 could be Hillary gaining (possibly due to attacking Rumsfeld - she may be able to slide her position while most aren't looking). or it could simply be a survey that the estimate is at the very high end of the range in which she would poll. (Good news is that Kerry is even with Edwards, who people speculated was moving up. (even with good press - he seems to be where he was.)

[ProSense]

11. It strikes me as

nonsense because I can't figure out where the support is coming from.

Favorable
Hillary Clinton 53%
Al Gore 49%
John Edwards 46%
John Kerry 45%

Negative
Clinton 44%
Kerry ???
Gore ???
Edwards 31%

Unknown
Edwards 23%
Clinton ???
Kerry ???
Gore ???

Democrats on Clinton
Clinton strong leader 77%
strong moral values 69%

Republicans on Clinton
opportunist 68%
puts political interests ahead of beliefs 60%.

Independents
would not support her 53%
would "definitely not" support her 34%

Other candidates may have a chance to persuade voters of their merits, but people have pretty much made up their mind about Hillary. Only 3% of those surveyed in the Time poll said they had no opinion of her, positive or negative. She is the inkblot test of a polarized electorate.

In hypothetical matchups with the preseason g.o.p. favorite, John McCain, Hillary is the only big-name Democrat to make a real race of it, with McCain edging her by just 2 points among registered voters. By comparison, McCain would trounce Kerry by 10 points and Gore by 9.

How is outcome likely with very little support from independents? The only way is to somehow believe that Hillary Clinton will get more votes than Kerry did from Democrats.


Which begs the question, who are they polling?

[wisteria]

14. I have to wonder that myself. Personally, I think her negatives are

of a higher percentage than what she is polling. I would say that among the Democrats I know, dislike for her runs 2 to 1. Perhaps,people may feel a vote against her is a vote against President Clinton. Then again, on the positive sign, people say they would vote for Hillary assuming that it was a package deal.

All of this means nothing until people go into the polls to vote, there is where their true feeling come into play.

Oh, and among Democrats, Kerry and Gore may have that, you already ran and lost stigma attached to them. I think this is not over till it is over and it will be those candidates that can address the important issuers and have ideas that will gain the voters trust and vote.

IMO, Senator Clinton just doesn't cut it.

[ProSense]

17. True about the

stigma, but Hillary has plenty too. Here is an interview with Rahm Emanuel that is clueless on so many levels:

Rahm It Through

Representative Emanuel on Joementum, Hillary, and a “bipartisan” Dem takeover.

* By Boris Kachka

As head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, U.S. Representative Rahm Emanuel may be the linchpin of the Dems’ plans to take over the House, but “Rahmbo” claims the high ground in his new book, The Plan: Big Ideas for America, a collection of “bipartisan” policy suggestions co-written with fellow former Clinton aide Bruce Reed. He talked to Boris Kachka.

Is this a Democratic platform?
No. This is something two guys who once opened up a paint store in Little Rock, Arkansas, came together to write. This is not for ’06. I think it will be plagiarized in the ’08 election.

How can you be fighting for a Democratic takeover and claiming to be beyond politics?
Look, we’ve had a president who has practiced the art of division; we’re offering an art of consensus. It is what we did in the nineties: welfare reform, balanced budget, nafta, all bipartisan.

What about Joe Lieberman?
If at any point in time he’d said, “I am for the war, but it has been conducted poorly and I want people held accountable who conducted it,” he never would have had a primary.

Are bloggers too powerful?
Do I think they’re important? Yes. Do I think the (bloggers) and Al Sharpton alone are the future of the Democratic Party? No! Welcome in, contribute, but it’s about winning in November and moving the country forward, not about a firing squad in a circle.

Is Hillary Clinton electable as president?Uh, yeah. Mmm-hmm.

Is she making the right moves—flag-burning legislation and all that?
First of all, she’s focused on the Senate race, etc. And she’s laying out the right policy positions for what would be a presidential campaign, as others are.

http://www.newyorkmetro.com/news/intelligencer/19399

I just don't get the thought process? With three Republicans in CT fighting to distance themselves from the war by calling for withdrawal, how does he come to this conclusion.

[ProSense]

19. Here are all the numbers!

.....................Very.........Somewhat.....Somewhat............Very
...................Favorable....Favorable..... Unfavorable.....Unfavorable..........Unsure

Hillary Clinton........22.............31................13...................30...................3
John Edwards........12.............34...............16...................14..................23
Al Gore................17.............32................18...................29...................4
John Kerry............14.............32................19...................27...................8

[Firespirit]

12. Neither Hillary nor McCain will be nominated.

I'd be willing to take out a bet on that. It is nothing more than a media narrative. The Republican Party will not nominate someone who cannot energize their wacko fundie base, and McCain can't do that. At this point I would not be a bit surprised to see Romney heading up their ticket.

And as for Hillary--well, I can't name names on this, but there is a longtime party figure who's very close to the Clintons, and who does not think that Hillary is going to run. I can't say I'm surprised. There is already a media meme out there: "Who is the Dems' Anti-Hillary?" After getting liberals and antiwar Dems to distrust her, she has positioned herself to share a voting bloc with Warner... who is the "fresh face" and a non-polarizing figure at that.

The person I'm most concerned about with respect to JK's prospects is Edwards.

[politicasista]

13. Me too n/t

[wisteria]

16. Edwards bothers me too. n/t