Not to get negative here, but this CA result is NOT encouraging

[beachmom]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Primaries-Rdp.html?hp&ex=1149739200&en=369f353aaa06ec3d&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Republican Wins Calif. House Race

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: June 7, 2006

A former Republican congressman narrowly beat his Democratic rival early Wednesday to fill the House seat once held by jailed Randy ''Duke'' Cunningham, one of several contests in eight states closely watched as a possible early barometer of next fall's vote.

Republican Brian Bilbray emerged victorious after a costly and contentious special election race against Democrat Francine Busby, a local school board member.

''I think that we're going back to Washington,'' Bilbray told cheering supporters. He will serve out the remaining seven months of Cunningham's term and get a boost for the November election.

With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Bilbray had 56,130 votes, or 50 percent. Busby trailed with 51,292 votes, or 45 percent.

The race was viewed by Democrats as an opportunity to capture a solidly Republican district and build momentum on their hopes to capture control of the House.



Ughh. I live in a VERY Republican district, too. Perhaps I need to lower my expectations for Nov. I thought for sure that my district might turn blue, but now I'm not so sure. People are just going to continue to vote Republican, apparently for no other reason than their disliking Democrats . . . the propaganda (based on my post about JK and the "World Order") has apparently stuck.

[_dynamicdems]

1. Aw damn, I'd hoped Busby was going to pull it off.

Don't get discouraged. There is other good news from CA. It looks like Arnie's days are numbered. Angelides won the primary.

[ray of light]

2. it really depends on gotv and efforts to get nonvoters involved.

[wisteria]

3. It was built up by the Republicans as a bellwether race-not by us.

I am disappointed, but this should send a message to our party that they need to work at winning, not just sit by and expect it to be handed to them because of Republican failings. Republicans said the mid-term elections were going to be won individually and not be a referendum on federal issues along.
Also, Busby ran on nothing but the corruption issues. That alone, IMO will never motivate Republicans to vote for us.As long as they feel the corruption doesn't affect them directly they don't mind it much. What motivates repubs is money- getting it and keeping it and making sure their butts are protected. I grew up around them, I have to live and work with them. Many of my family are Republicans and they may not like how the present administration is performing their job, but as long as the Republicans protect their money and security, well thats what really matters to them. It is all about them and only them. For example, just look at how the gas issue gets them riled up.

[ProSense]

5. Good point! n/t

[ProSense]

4. I think it's extremely positive!

Bilbray defeats Busby in Calif.-50
ELECTION RESULTS
By Aaron Blake

Republicans claimed victory in the California special election early Wednesday morning as former Rep. Brian Bilbray led Democrat Francine Busby by four points with 96 percent of precincts reporting.

The 50th District race Tuesday was a runoff pitting the top two finishers from an April election to replace disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) and was billed as a bellwether for the upcoming general election in November, where Democrats hope they have the wind at their backs and a chance to retake Congress.

Snip...

Democrats cast Busby’s showing as an early sign things are going their way.

"After spending more than $5 million, using national Republican leaders like George Bush, John McCain and Laura Bush, dumping 250 Republican staffers into the state, and running hugely negative ads, Brian Bilbray and the NRCC were able to pull out less than 50 percent of the vote in a very solidly Republican district," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg said.

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/060706/bilbray.html

Election 2006
Republican Bilbray Wins Vulnerable House Seat
by Scott Horsley

Morning Edition, June 7, 2006 · Republican Brian Bilbray emerges victorious in the fight for the suburban San Diego House seat once held by jailed Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Bilbray narrowly beat Democrat Francine Busby, a local school board member, in a special election.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5456320

For a race in an extremely Republican district, Busby erased 18 points of a 22 point deficit over her previous run:

Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham 169,025 58.5%
Democratic Francine Busby 105,590 36.5%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives,_California_District_50


There is still November! Four points to go!

[rox63]

6. This is a VERY Republican district

I believe * won it in 2004 by double-digits. And this is a huge improvement by Busby over the last time she ran for this seat.

Isn't there a huge military base located in the district?

[ProSense]

7. Two excellent blog posts!

Snip...

Obviously, Democrats had hoped to pull an upset yesterday by winning in a solidly-Republican district. They fell a little short in the end. But for Republicans this morning, it's hard to spin the results as an encouraging sign of things to come.

It's very much reminiscent of Jean Schmidt narrowly defeating Paul Hackett is Ohio's 2nd last year -- a race that the GOP was supposed to win easily went down to the wire, and ended up costing Republicans a fortune. Put it this way: if the GOP has to work this hard just to keep ordinarily-safe Republican districts in November, they better raise more money than they've ever raised before.

As Stuart Rothenberg noted yesterday, before results were available, "The National Republican Congressional Committee is pouring resources into this race at an astonishing rate in hopes of saving the seat. But the NRCC will not be able to put $5 million into every contest this fall, so a Bilbray victory, if it happens, should not mislead observers into thinking that Democratic prospects in the fall have been exaggerated."

Ultimately, coming close isn't good enough, and it's Bilbray who's going to take the oath of office. But if this race was a bellwether election, Republicans can't be at all pleased with how this year is shaping up.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_06/008961.php

Post Election Thoughts by Chris Bowers, Wed Jun 07, 2006 at 03:29:46 AM EST

Snip...

No matter what the media says, no Democrat should be mistaken about this result. First, this is a huge, seismic shift in our favor that bodes extremely well for November. If we receive an 18% shift nationwide, we will win the House easily. If Republican candidates are pulling only 20% of the independent vote, the Indycrat realignment is still on.

At the same time, this is not as good as we could have done. The situation for Republicans is so bad right now, that even our huge leads in the generic ballot hide what Paul Rosenberg pointed out: we should be doing better. Just because we are winning does not mean we are using winning strategies. Our ten-point advantage in the generic ballot should be fifteen. The eighteen point shift we saw in CA-50 should have been twenty-five. Bilbray will win with under 50% of the vote, and there was low turnout relative to past California primaries. Clearly, there was an opportunity for us to do more.

We had some real victories tonight, and we still have time to rectify our mistakes. Fortunately, come November, even Busby will have another chance. I just hope that as a party we realize that there are clearly better strategic paths for us to take than the ones we are currently following. Tonight, as David Sirota writes, Jon Tester showed us just such a path.

I won't pretend to have all of the answers at 3:30 am. Things are going pretty well, but they could be going even better. Thanks for staying up with me, but good night for now. Don't forget to help out BlogPac and netroots candidates.

I'll see you in the early afternoon.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/6/7/32946/22728

[MH1]

8. Suggestion

Are you volunteering with your local / county Dem party?

Do people register by party in VA?

In any case, party volunteers need to canvass every likely Dem voter that you can find, and convince them to vote. If registration is by party, you can probably get street lists of who's registered Dem.

Also, now is the time to help with registration drives.

The disheartening thing, to me, about the CA result is the low turnout. If we could have convinced more Dems to vote, Busby could have won anyway.

[beachmom]

10. I am going to a Democratic function this Sat.

I'm definitely going to get involved. However, as you have read with our Senate primary, I am fearful that the Dem Base is not excited about those two candidates, Webb or Miller -- I know I'm not. Tim Kaine did win Virginia Beach, but not my district -- Kilgore still won that. Kerry got 40% of the vote here.

This goes back to what I have said about these voter registration/GOTV activities. The Republicans show up EVERY TIME to vote, while we have to beg and plead for Dems to come out? That just frustrates me to no end.

I have since read that District 50 in CA is very much like my district (which makes sense since a lot of Navy toggle back and forth between San Diego and Norfolk). What that means is that they are Republican and aren't going to cross over no matter what. They HATE the Democrats, and even with all of their disappointment in Bush, the war, gas prices, et al, they are VERY dogmatic and will vote the (R) every time. I know these people. It also doesn't help that our challenger has made a few missteps (nothing fatal and largely unseen, but still). Moveon.org targeted Thelma Drake but people here think Moveon.org hates America and sides with OBL, so that is not helpful either. I've read some local blogs, and they've expressed concern about these issues. I just think that the Dems are MAJOR UNDERDOGS in my district as well as the Senate race against George Allen, and I'm preparing you guys for that now so that you don't get your hopes up. Hopefully things will change

[TayTay]

12. IT's okay, I understand

I live in a part of Mass that backs the more conservative candidates. My goal is 3-5%. That means that I want to increase my turnout by 3-5% in my town. That is probably doable.

Honey, I am not responsible for the whole of the world. That is a bad way to think and leads to burnout. I am responsible for what I can actually do. I can go door to door and get them that are gettable. I will not get the hardcore Repub vote. It's not going to happen. But there are indy voters that I might be able to get with some good shoe leather and some effort.

You do what you can do. You show up and talk to those who are open to you. You cannot perform miracles and reverse the neglect that the Dems have allowed to happen for the last 30 years or so.

Do what you can do. That means everything. And don't take the problems of the world onto your shoulders. Believe me, this doesn't help at all. Go do what you can do. That is how progress is made.

[TayTay]

9. It is never going to be easy

But this is a good news/bad news story. It is my understanding that Busby had a gaffe in the last week of her campaign that was a plus for her opponent. (Rethugs are relentless and if they are given even a teensy little gaffe they will blow it up into the biggest thing ever. The Global Test remark wasn't even a gaffe, just common sense, and the Rethugs tried to make it a gaffe.)

The Dems bettered the results from last time by 18% points. If I were in the GOP, I would be very, very worried. As a Dem, it makes me want to redouble my efforts. Power is never given in politics, it is taken. We have work to do and it is going to be difficult to accomplish. Nevertheless, there were some very encouraging results yesterday. Enough to make the effort this fall very exciting.

[beachmom]

11. I heard on NPR Busby only matched the Kerry vote -- 45%

Many voted for Cunningham, but voted for Kerry for president in '04. So Busby only could match the Kerry vote. The money side of the story is pretty good (that they had to spend so much and work so hard to get what was supposed to be a safe seat). But this is NOT 1994, where districts that were already trending Republican went open when old time Blue dog encumbent Dems retired, and the Southern realignment became complete. MAYBE this might happen in blue states with Nancy Johnson (she was my rep. growing up) and Chris Shays, but red districts will probably stay red districts.

Here is a diary from dKos. I don't necessarily agree with what he's saying, but his tone of outrage and frustration -- THAT I identify with.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/7/94119/92903?detail=f

[TayTay]

13. Yeah, that's about what I expected.

The seats have been gerrymandered to keep them Repub.

Why do people think this is going to be easy? What part of '04 did we not pay attention to?

[demdiva]

16. interesting

[demdiva]

14. Don't give up hope yet!

I agree it's a dissapointment, but five months is a lifetime in politics and the momentum is definitely in our favor.

[Blaukraut]

15. this is a letter from John Kerry I got today, beachmom

It should make you feel better :-)


Dear Kerstin,

This morning, Republicans are making laughable claims of momentum in the 2006 elections. They poured over $5 million dollars of national Republican money into a California special election to hold onto a seat that they've held since it was created by the GOP, for the GOP 15 years ago.

And they eked out a victory by 5,000 votes.

Their claims of momentum are as phony as their claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Help make today a day of defiant determination by personally joining in a remarkable display of grassroots support for four key Democratic challengers locked in tight House and Senate races in historically Republican districts that are at the tipping point of electing Democrats.

Show them that, come November, we're going to win these elections, and we won't be denied.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

The Republicans expect us to roll over after yesterday's special election. They're in for a big surprise. This fall's election is about removing the power to control America's agenda from their hands. And we won't stop working until we get it done.

We're fully committed to standing by Democratic candidates locked in tough races every step of the way. That's why today I'm asking you to help Keeping America's Promise give immediate urgently needed support to four impressive challengers who are running in tight House and Senate races in Republican bastions.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

We've helped Tammy Duckworth before, raising over $150,000 in grassroots support to aid her aggressive, upstart campaign to pick up the open seat in Illinois' 6th District, which has been held by Rep. Henry Hyde (R) for 32 years. An Iraq war veteran, who lost her legs when her Black Hawk helicopter was shot down by a rocket-propelled grenade, Tammy launched her candidacy just days after her release from Walter Reed Army Medical Center.

Tammy is running an impressive issues-based campaign emphasizing health care, energy independence, and the need for congressional reform. She's ready, willing, and able to challenge the status quo.

And her opponent, Peter Roskam, is a Tom DeLay protege who has staked out extremist positions that are even to the right of Henry Hyde's ultra-conservative record. They're running neck and neck right now. But, you can help Tammy break this election open.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

Harry Mitchell, the hugely popular former mayor of Tempe, Arizona, is taking on Republican J.D. Hayworth, one of the most divisive leaders of the "Republican revolution." You name the issue and, chances are, J.D. Hayworth has been -- loudly -- on the wrong side of it. That includes supporting reckless GOP spending and leading the effort to cut education and veterans' benefits.

But now, J.D. has a problem. He has to face Harry Mitchell, a highly-revered local political figure, in this year's elections. And Hayworth is apparently the leading congressional recipient of campaign donations associated with the Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

A Democratic win in this critical race would be a double victory. We'd bring a powerful new voice to Congress and we'd send packing one of the more wrong-headed GOP politicians of our time.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

In another critical race, Mary Jo Kilroy is running in Ohio against Deborah Pryce, a member of the House Republican leadership. Pryce has supported the disastrous policies of the Bush Republicans up and down. She's never faced serious opposition for her House seat -- until now.

As Franklin County's top executive, Mary Jo Kilroy already represents 87 percent of the congressional district and she's a proven vote-getter. What's more, Pryce's district, historically a Republican stronghold, is changing. We battled George W. Bush to a tie in the district in the 2004 presidential campaign, and Mary Jo Kilroy is running in a deadlocked race. With your support, she's going to win. By helping her defeat a long-time member of the Republican House leadership team, we can send a powerful message this November.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

The fourth candidate we're focusing on today is Jim Webb, the former Secretary of the Navy and proud Vietnam veteran. I am honored to have endorsed this Democrat in the crucial Virginia Senate race. Jim is a tireless advocate for veterans, and like the title of his book Born Fighting, he will not be afraid to stand up to this Administration -- no one pushes around a Marine. George Allen, his opponent, has stood with George W. Bush 97% of the time. In this critical election, we don't need to elect another rubber stamp.

Jim understands the many challenges facing Americans today: skyrocketing health care costs, the outsourcing of jobs and the lack of a level playing field. Jim knows President Bush has no plan in Iraq, and Jim will fight every day for real national security, unlike George Allen who says he's bored in the Senate, bored at a time when America's soldiers are caught in the crossfire in Iraq. Time magazine reported that Jim is "George Allen's worst nightmare."

Please help George Allen's nightmare come true by supporting Jim Webb in this crucial Senate race.

Act now to support four vitally important Democratic challengers!

Today is a test. Do we yield to the ridiculous notion that Republicans have gained momentum in these elections? Do we buy their hollow spin? Or do we refuse to let them back in the game by working night and day to support strong, winning Democratic campaigns every step of the way?

You know what the answer has to be. Demonstrate our determination by rushing donations to the four key challengers I've just told you about. Thank you.

Sincerely,

John Kerry