Dick Morris on Kerry's Landslide Loss

[Dr Ron]

Quick, do the math in your head. Was Kerry's loss closer to Gore's loss to Bush or Goldwater's loss to Johnson.

The correct answer, if you are Dick Morris, is that Kerry lost in a landslide like Goldwater while Gore had a near loss.

http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=2653

[karynnj]

1. Morris math is as lousy as his moral values

[sandnsea]

2. Can we do a pool

How long before "conventional wisdom" in the blogosphere is repeating this tripe as just another reason not to go with Kerry in 2008. I'll say 17 days.

In-credible.

Dick Morris =
:silly:

[karynnj]

3. Actually , minus approximately 490 days

or however long it's been since Nov 3, 2004. It didn't make sense then and doesn't now.

In reality, it has to be how he stacks up against the others in early 2008. If he is the strongest and the issues are right, he will be the best candidate. He has lots of positives, the key is blowing many of the perceived negatives out of the water.

Consider how many people, who we know are "not our friends" have suddenly had articles the goal of which is to diminish Kerry. Note the correlation with strong Kerry moves. With Morris, the only question I have is which Republican is he for or is he back with his buddy, Bill.

I respect Gore, but he doesn't "wear well". He seems incapable of not sounding like he is talking to grade schoolers. Oddly, Kerry sounds fantastic speaking to high schoolers - respectful, clear, and he clearly loves the exchanges.

[Dr Ron]

5. Two different issues

Morris's evaluation of the two elections is faulty, regardless of one's view on whether Kerry or Gore would win.

Personally I suspect that Gore would win if he got into the race (provided he didn't wait too long) but that's just a prediction and means very little. I certainly wouldn't expect other candidates such as Kerry to avoid the race if Gore is in, and I certainly can be wrong about Gore's chances. In contrast, the analysis of the previous elections is based upon actual data avaialble, and Morris's interpretation that Kerry lost by a Goldwater-type margin while Gore kept it close is obviousy faulty.

[ProSense]

7. I don't think

Gore would win. I remember Gore's campaign. I've followed some of the thing he's done. Some people are living a fantasy about Gore right now. Not to say that he wouldn't be one of the most viable candidates, but I don't believe he'd win. IMO, Kerry getting 10 million more votes matters more than the overall margins since there are so many unanswered questionsand uncertainties related to fraud hanging over this election (especially when one considers that Kerry increased not only the number of votes, but also the margin among African Americans, the very population affected by documented suppression).

[Dr Ron]

8. Not worth arguing over a prediction

That's my prediction on Gore, but predictions at this stage in a political race mean little. There is also no objective evidence to use, so it is an argument which cannot be won. The only answer would be if Gore does enter the race at a point early enough to raise money to compete with Clinton and Kerry. There's no doubt Gore would win the blogosphere, but we know that has little to do with what happens in the real world.

Actually nominations between candidates who are relatively similar such as Kerry and Gore could easily come down to something unexpected happening in a campaign such as a single gaffe or a single great moment by either candidate. It can also come down to whoever wins the ground war in getting out their vote in the early caucus and primary states.

Regardless of what happens, there are many reasons, including those you mention, why Kerry's loss does not exclude him as a possibility for 2008 any more than Gore's loss does. Morris is totally off the wall on this.

[ProSense]

9. Just offering my point.

Those are goods points. I'm not implying Kerry wins hands down. I just think a lot of the blogosphere hype (and not everyone has bought into it) is because Gore has stated that he isn't going to run.

[karynnj]

12. I agree

I assume that Kerry would in fact end up the benificiary of a lot of "Gore" voters now, if Gore doesn't run. (Not most of the internet ones, but the ones looking for experience.

[ProSense]

13. I just saw a

post about not liking Lieberman. That is the concensus in the blosphere. How does Gore, or does Gore have to, overcome the fact the Lieberman was his running mate?

[wisteria]

14. My guess is he will be given a free pass on Lieberman because he

didn't endorse him in 2004 and he did endorse Dean.

[ProSense]

15. You're probably right.

I forgot about that.

[karynnj]

11. Also it was a much tougher race

- As President, there was a lot Bush controlled. The terror alerts that rose with Kerry's numbers are one example. The ability to have a "do over" and have what was a foreign policy stump speech covered in its entirety after Bush was destroyed in the foreign policy debate. I still wonder if the OBL tapes in the last week were either held for that time for political reasons or fake. I really think I could be fooled by any tall, slender Saudi Arabian with hair and beard that seem familiar. The voice doesn't have to match, we only hear the translators. He hadn't been seen for months. That he was wearing a perfectly clean, unwrinkled garment standing before a nondescript background - with a spotless linen covered table in front of him, was surprising if he was in the lawless area in Northwestern Pakistan.

- The media covered for Bush to a degree I've never seen before in my life. Likely because they knew their access would be cut off if they didn't. They had no similar fear in case Kerry was elected, because he has no history of that type of vindictive behavior.

- The RW plus the media likely worked on each candidate to develop a perfect character assignation. With Kerry, they took RW lies that were there for decades and expanded them. What's amazing is that they obviously involved even some prep school and college peers. Reading his biography shows a totally different person. How does a kid (who is not incredibly talented musically) get asked to be in a band if he isn't liked? How does he interest either Julia Thorne or Jackie's step-sister? How does a Democrat on a Republican campus get elected to be head of the political union as a Junior when it typically went to Senior? Would a loner be the one who made a point of calling his Yale friends when he could in Vietnam and writing to all of them? One comment in Tour of Duty was that Brinkley found that every Kerry friend kept all his letters. During the campaign, there were at least 3 non-related people who had Kerry as a God parent to a baby of theirs. (They also had to demonize Teresa because a woman as lovely as she was (inside and out) falling in love with him would not have happened to the Kerry they described.)Not to mention his Senate career, war service and his anti-war activities. There was nothing in his life they were willing to leave unchallenged.

There was nothing this intense with Gore. They said he exaggerated and implied he lied. They said he didn't know who he was and he sighed at the debates. Compare these to what Kerry and his family experienced.

[wisteria]

4. Screw the toe sucking Morris. He has been pushing Senator

Clinton and has a stupid book out claiming the 2008 race is going to be between Hilary and Condee. Obviously, a Kerry run would interfere with his little fantasy and book sales. A landslide loss isn't 2.5 % less of the vote or include disenfranchisement and suspected tampering in Ohio and possibly elsewhere.

[Dr Ron]

6. Morris might actually wind up doing Kerry a favor

Morris might inadvertently do Kerry a small favor. While 2004 was definately close enough for Kerry to remain a viable candidate for 2008, it was not as close as 2000. Some forget this when they complain compare Gore fighting after the election to Kerry conceding. Kerry kept it relatively close, but he was still further behind in Ohio than Gore was in Florida, and didn't have the legitimacy winning the popular vote provided Gore in contesting the election.

[TayTay]

10. Kerry wasn't a Morris client

And Morris is a bigtime whore. This is typical of his claptrap.

I think the former Vice President has an excellent podium to affect change in this country. He has found his voice again on the environment. That voioce was somewhat muted during his tenure in office and he was not a strong advocate for these concerns. His advocacy for eco issues took a back seat to the concerns over deficits and the need to not appear to be too unkind to the business community. Mr. Gore has been much better at this since he has been out of office, IMHO.

[_dynamicdems]

16. The man is appropriately named. n/t