The exit polls

[sandnsea]

I want to talk about the exit polls. NH was wrong. Virginia and the Carolinas were wrong. PA 53 - 46? Not just a little wrong, but WAY WRONG, inconceivably wrong. Why do people keep referring to these exit polls as if they prove anything? The most they could possibly prove is that the Bushies conspired to screw up all the exit polls so that you couldn't use them either. Another mass conspiracy. It just gives me a headache.

[JI7]

1. these people

seem to like the whole conspiracy theory aspect of it rather than doing anything to get real reform. that's why they never help support the proposals put out there to get these reforms.

[sandnsea]

2. But on the polls

Is that how you see them too? I've never said anything about them because I create enough havoc on DU. But the exit poll argument just never seemed to be valid because of how wildly wrong they were in some other states.

[Mass]

3. But is is this wildly wrong that feeds the BBV systematic fraud scenario

What they dont realize is that if there is a fraud with the BBV, it is probably more to the margin, so that the swing states would change.

Nobody in their right mind would create a fraud that could change MA or CA.

However, there is something wrong with the exit polls, and it was not only during the GE. It happened also during the primaries. May be it is due to a mere psychological phenomena, where people that are polled answer what the pollster wants to hear. Who knows?

[sandnsea]

5. Things are wrong

That's for sure, something is really wrong with the exit polling. It doesn't make any sense that it has been so completely wrong. There again, you would think somebody would come forward and admit they were biased in who they chose to poll or something.

I agree on the machines, they screwed up all over the country. In situations where it made no election stealing sense for them to screw up. They're unreliable which would be enough of a reason to investigate them. Which would lead to the questions of how easy they would be to hack.

[JI7]

4. i'm not sure

it still stands out to me that in key states where the election outcome would have made the difference, that it seemed to be the total opposite.

in the other states they were still right about who was ahead.

personally i'm not sure i believe in BBV fraud in that the machines were programmed. the problem i see is more in things that probably have been going on for years. mostly resulting in people never being able to vote in the first place. things like not providing enough voting booths in mostly dem areas resulting in long lines. Republicans spreading lies about when and where people will vote. or tell people they need to have an ID or something else before they can vote.

[sandnsea]

6. 7:30 polls

On Slate. NM, NV, IA, OH, FL flipped. But they had these close. If you look at the wide margins in PA & NH at that time, then the sliding numbers towards Bush fit a pattern. Also, I got an email around 5 or so, from Moveon I think, asking for urgent calls to Ohio. I always wondered why when the campaign atmosphere was that we had won, based on these exit polls.

http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

[JI7]

7. that is a good point

i wonder if Bush supporters were motivated to get out based on the reports of the exit polls from early voters before election day.

in a way it can discourage supporters , but in another way it can motivate them also.

[sandnsea]

8. Voters or cheaters

I remember reading an article about 1960 and Illinois. There's like a waiting game between Chicago and downstate, whoever gets their votes in last wins. Hmmm. I didn't pay close enough attention to exact timing everywhere, but it is something to wonder about. Do they keep a record of timing to compare whether there's enough late voters to offset the number of early voters???

[jillan]

9. All I know for sure is that Kerry was winning, and at about midnite

Arizona time, everything started coming up Bush.

I remember how puzzled I was.
How it all changed. I was watching Dan Rather that nite. :(
You can't tell me that it was just a coincidence.

Maybe when KKKarl's in jail, some really pissed off prisoner will get the truth out of him. lol.

[Dr Ron]

10. Too much attention paid to exit polls

The exit polls prove nothing and there has been way too much attention paid to them.

There are plausible arguments as to why they were wrong, such as not counting enough people in the exburbs, and poor selection of samples by pollsters.

Even if someone believes that the exit polls were right, this still is not evidence of fraud. To do anything, evidence needs to be found of the actual fraud.