Monday Bolton

[whometense]

Via TAPPED, this bit from the Congressional Quarterly:

BOLTON AT LITTLE BIGHORN?

Congressional Quarterly is reporting that Bill Frist may forge ahead with the John Bolton nomination tomorrow morning, before the fallout from the nuclear option. According to the report, Frist may seek a cloture vote to preempt a Democratic filibuster of Bolton -- the probable Democratic response, as the Bush administration still refuses to hand over relevant information on how Bolton handled certain classified intelligence and personnel matters.

Leaving aside George Voinovich's likely vote with the Democrats, I seriously doubt though that Frist has anywhere near the 60 votes needed. There are five Democrats (plus Jim Jeffords) in the Senate today that voted to confirm Bolton for undersecretary of state for arms control and international security in 2001: Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Russ Feingold, and Evan Bayh. This, coincidentally, is precisely the number of Democrats needed to break ranks for cloture to succeed. But unless all five decide to vote against Bolton, they will certainly not vote in unity this time around. Though Lieberman, Nelson, and Landrieu remain publicly uncommitted on Bolton, the other two aren't likely to waver. As a committed Bolton detractor on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Russ Feingold will not repeat his past mistake. And if Evan Bayh’s dissenting vote on Condoleezza Rice is any indicator, the Indiana senator is probably less inclined to vote for Bolton.

And that’s before you get to Jeffords and Voinovich. Even if you replaced Feingold with Mark Pryor (who is also publicly uncommitted), I just don’t see how Frist thinks he can muster the votes.

I’m not sure what CQ’s basis for the story is, but Frist has been under pressure by the White House to get the Bolton vote over with before the nuclear showdown. Maybe this is just Frist's way of telling the White House that Bolton’s a lost cause?

--Mark Leon Goldberg

Posted at 01:22 PM

[whometense]

1. Bolton the Subject of Democratic Caucus Luncheon Today. . .

Steve Clemons

Today, the Senate Democratic caucus is having its weekly lunch session, and the topic of the day is John Bolton.

I'm sure that a number of Senators will communicate the long roster of reasons that Bolton should be withdrawn by the President -- but will also lay out the pending questions including the unresolved NSA intercepts evidence requests and questions about potential conflicts of interest that Matthew Freedman had when working as a special assistant to Bolton but also maintaining a roster of private lobbying clients.

Senator Reid's strategy on Bolton should become more clear after the lunch today. Senator Frist still has not notified the minority of his intent to file cloture.

However, earlier Senator Boxer informed Frist of her intent to object
to the nomination -- so the only way Bolton will get 'done' this week is if Frist wins a cloture motion.

Who will concede? Who will blink? On the one hand, the Dems may think that they got a win in the filibuster compromise and may not want to dig in as ferociously against Bolton.

On the other hand, Frist has a handful of public Republicans -- and many private ones -- who really despise the Bolton nomination. They may not want to immediately go back into hand-to-hand battle with the Democrats after just relieving the pressure on the judges.

If it were my choice, Dems and moderate Republicans should stand strong against Bolton -- if not for the many reasons he is wrong for the job then also because the White House has defied Senate requests for information -- EVEN FROM THE REPUBLICAN CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE.

That alone should be enough to scuttle the Bolton nomination -- particularly given the odd way that the nomination came to the floor of the Senate with no recommendation from Committee.

[ginnyinWI]

2. thanks for posting

we are reading, just don't always have anything to add! :)

[whometense]

3. Thanks, Ginny.

I'm glad to hear that - I don't want to be just annoying people with this stuff!

[TayTay]

4. Not at all, Whome!

I am so glad that you posted this. Bolton is the next big battle and I am interested to see if the Mod Squad agreement will have anything to do with this or what.

Thanks for doing this!

[karynnj]

5. Is Mod Squad your name

It's really clever.

[whometense]

6. Latest news

Via Steve Clemons, Senator Voinovich circulated a letter to colleagues today asking them to examine the evidence and vote their consciences on Bolton. The letter is posted here.

Doug Jehl writes in the NY Times,

The Ohio Republican whose opposition to John R. Bolton as United Nations ambassador nearly stalled his nomination in committee took a new swipe at him today, circulating a letter urging colleagues to vote against Mr. Bolton when his name reaches the Senate floor, possibly this week.

The letter from Senator George R. Voinovich was sent to all senators, but it was aimed particularly at fellow Republicans in a chamber in which the party holds a 55-44 majority (with one independent). At least five Republicans would have to join Mr. Voinovich in opposing Mr. Bolton if the nomination were to be defeated.

In the letter, Mr. Voinovich said that while he had been "hesitant to push my views on my colleagues" during his years in the Senate, he felt "compelled to share my deep concerns" about Mr. Bolton's nomination.

"In these dangerous times, we cannot afford to put at risk our nation's ability to successfully wage and win the war on terror with a controversial and ineffective ambassador to the United Nations," Mr. Voinovich wrote. He urged colleagues to "put aside our partisan agenda and let our consciences and our shared commitment to our nation's best interests guide us."

Steve Clemons:

Senator Frist has "hotlined" the Bolton nomination, calling for a vote with 40 hours of debate -- 20 hours for each side. This means that a vote is possible this week, or just after the Memorial Day recess.

Senator Boxer has agreed to remove her "hold" on Bolton as Frist can remove the hold with a "motion to proceed" which requires only a simple majority to win.

While the Dems and a couple of Republicans probably have enough votes to sustain a filibuster of Bolton, the fact is that the deal on the judges reached last night has made the caucus less eager to engage in that kind of brinksmanship -- though they seem eager to stand relatively united against Bolton.

There are rumors that even Senators Lieberman, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu are reconsidering their semi-positive leanings on Bolton.