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Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 03:40 PM by karynnj
The better comparison is with Gore. There was a long period where Gore was seen as a strong potential 2004 candidate. Name recognition was possibly the main fuel for it. If he had not come back with a beard and much heavier than he was before (the 2 together making him seem to have not handled the loss (theft) well.), he would probably have continued to be way out ahead in the polls of who people wanted. Kerry on the other hand was acting in a positive dynamic way practically from the moment of his loss. Initially he is polling second to Hillary.
The early polls are quite volatile - Dean was nowhere and then top within 2 months, with NOTHING real happening. It has only been about 5 months since the last election. Hillary will be under intense scrutiny, people here have already listed some of her faux pas and faults. The media is clearly building her up - she is intelligent, well spoken, and would be the first woman to have a serious shot at the Presidency.
Although obviously anything could happen between now and 2007, I would argue that there is as much chance for Hillary to falter as to succeed. I am really leery of all the Hillary is so smart because she is moving to the center arguments. First, it makes her look cynical and unprincipled. This may, unfairly, be more an issue for her than for some others, because it was also true of Bill Clinton. If the media starts spreading information on anything that defines Hillary as unethical, unprincipled or dishonest, it may benefit Kerry the most as most Democrats, even after he lost criticized him for many things, but always added that he was a good, decent, clean man. (this would be esp true if he goes through with dealing with his military record.)
From the list of those running, Kerry may be the only one with liberal credentials. (Other than Feingold - who's been mentioned as a long shot.) If IA and NH are first, the fact that Kerry seems to connect best in person could cause a surprise there again. For many people it would be renewing a connection which could be easier than making a new one.
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