autorank's Front Page post on Zogby's 2004 election confidence numbers

[blm]

needs to be passed on to President Kerry.

And the people in his office.

[whometense]

1. wow.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0608/S00220.htm

A recent Zogby poll documents ground breaking information on the attitudes of American voters toward electronic voting. They are quite clear in the belief that the outcome of an entire election can be changed due to flaws in computerized voting machines. At a stunning rate of 92%, Americans insist on the right to watch their votes being counted. And, at an overwhelming 80%, they strongly object to the use of secret computer software to tabulate votes without citizen access to that software.

The American public is clear in its desire for free, fair, and transparent elections. An 80%-90% consensus on the right to view vote counting and opposition to secrecy by voting machine vendor is both rare and remarkable in American politics. If only the public knew that these options are virtually non existent in today’s election system...

Voters Aware of Risks of Electronic Voting – Changing an Entire Election


How aware are you that there have been reports of flaws in electronic voting or computerized voting machines that make it possible to tamper with one machine in such a way as to change the results of an entire election?

Very aware 28.5%
Somewhat aware 31.8 Aware 60.3%
Somewhat unaware 14.9
Very unaware 22.8 Unaware 37.7
Not sure 1.9



The response shows a wide spread awareness of the potential for flawed voting machines to overturn an entire election. This is highly significant since the change in election outcome represents a violation of the expressed will of the people. Elections using touch screens computers or optical scan tabulators would seem to present entry level doubt concerning any election, particularly the type of nail biters that are common in America over the past few years.

Not just for tinfoilhatters anymore.

[karynnj]

3. Wow is right!

My first implulse was to check if this was a Zogby interactive (ie internet poll) - as that population is likley more aware because they are on-line and because they are likely more computer savvy.

But this is a Zogby TELEPHONE poll. This is very interesting.

It also should bring into memory the exit polls. The polls aren't always accurate, but the number of times they are wrong when one candidate is ahead by a significant amount is nowhere near what it was in 2004.

Consider:
1) The same sampling methodology was used as in previous years.
2) It was implemented (data gathered) the same way
3) When they tried to explain the decrepancy, they did not say there was a design flaw that systematically biased the results or some flaw in the algorithms that produced the estimate.
4) The shy voter explanation doesn't cut it with me. Most authority figures from the media, church and the government were pushing Bush. The classic reason given for people disproportionately refusing to disclose their choice or lying, is when they are voting for reasons they are ashamed of or which they feel people would disapprove of. In religious communities, it likely would take more guts to say you voted for Kerry when your priest said you should vote for Bush.

It is clear this answer resulted from ruling out the other sources of bias and assuming the official result was correct. If the data posted showing that the greatest percent error occured in Bush strongholds is true, this is really hard to believe.

[whometense]

4. and how interesting is it,

not to mention SAD, that this is being reported on a NEW ZEALAND website?? Surely the New York Times and WaPo had access to the same information they got in New Zealand?

By the way, Karyn, did you see this story? http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion/21blog.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Sounds like it might be the tipping point.

[karynnj]

5. I hadn't seen that - and there are similar postings

almost word for word on DU on threads. NJ has had a sudden spurt of corruption charges - involving Democrats. My suscpicion is the intent is to have a backdrop of investigations and charges, to increase the credibility of the charge made against Menendez - that looks pretty innocent and which he answered well on This Week yesterday.

The calls of 'Can we replace him?" started even when he was ahead. This is extremely dirty. NJ is also an extremely expensive state to advertise in or to get sufficient news coverage. Almost all of the stations are out of NYC or Philadelphia. This lets these sleasy undefined rumours spread.

In 2005, Kerry asked people to act as grassroots - to learn the facts - because as Kerry said, "when rumours start, which they will because that's what they do " we needed to speak to friends, family and co-workers to stop them. (From over a year ago - but as it made so much sense at the time, I think I remembered it correctly.) This may be what organized Democrats need to start - though we need the complete facts - this would act as a vaccination does - if there are enough people "immune" from believing it, it will not spread as quickly or it can be isolated.

On the other hand, the article is interesting as it is saying that both the NYT and the campaign appreciate the power of the blogs. The campaign wouldn't have done this if they didn't see the value. It also shows the naiviety of the campaign - you are not as anonymous as you think on the internet. I'm going to post this in a few of the NJ threads on DU-P and in the NJ forum. Thanks

[whometense]

6. here's another one

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/115881922253520.xml&coll=1&thispage=1#continue

I sure hope Menendez has a strong finish planned. He did a good job defending himself on This Week.

More here, too: http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2MDcmZmdiZWw3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTY5OTUwNTQmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXky

Go get 'em!!!

[karynnj]

7. I posted the other in the NJ forum - because it wasn't there

I never heard of "astroturfing" - just troll.

I thought Menendez did very well on This week - but I really thought GS was very sloopy on the Iraq question. Kean said he agreed with Clinton, that Menendez's position, of an immediate pull, out would be a disaster. That is NOT Menendez's position - his position is K/F. GS didn't question whether Clinton specifically said that about Menendez or question how Kean defined Menendez. Then, when speaking to Menendez, he simply said Kean supports Clinton's position. (Again wrong, Kean said he agrees with Clinton that pulling out is not a good idea - it says nothing about Clinton's plan (especially as I don't think he's put one out or backed one.)

This is NOT good and sets Menendez up as very radical and Kean as so moderate he agrees with Clinton. In terms of demeanor Kean came across as a nasty, spoiled preppy kid.)

[whometense]

8. I thought Kean came across terribly.

He sounded whiny and obnoxious.

"Astroturfing" is usually used in a slightly different way - referring to the way right wing websites generate zillions of identical LTTE and email them out to every paper in the universe.

[ginnyinWI]

2. people are finally becoming aware.

Even in my conservative community, they had a demo day where they demonstrated the new optical scanner that now includes a paper receipt tape coming out of the top. Not that the voter gets to keep one, but that the machine prints evidence of a counted ballot. So that's something. And our ballots are still done on paper with black markers.