New poll

[ProSense]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2811048&mesg_id=2811048

[nolies32fouettes]

1. lol--you beat me by just a hair in posting this

[ProSense]

2. It's the

"Hillary Clinton isn't running" poll!

:hi:

[fedupinBushcountry]

3. Just remember

I think Lieberman was winning in the early polls back in late 2002, 2003, and you see what happened with him, he became Joe Loserman.

I like where Kerry is at right now and would prefer he stay there for the next year and build his numbers up again just like he did in '04.

[karynnj]

5. I agree that being the front runner now makes you a target

I think that Kerry can't follow the same pattern as 2004. His name recognition and people's view that they know him is higher. I hope that he gradually picks up a good proportion of the people who give up on a candidate. Here it looks like Kerry and Gore (and don't know) were the winners of those leaving Hillary. This could make sense - that as she is the establishment candidate many are looking for someone with gravitas, experience and strength. If Gore continues to say he is not running and doesn't endorse anyone, a big question is will Kerry pick up a large part of those voters? (Remember DU Gore voters are likely not representative - and even here several say they like Kerry, but Gore deserves it more (or some other thing).

If Kerry's percent going into the debates is 15% - 20%, he would be in good shape. He is by far the best debater - he improved substantially between spring and fall 2004. His appearances on the talk shows - some require answers similar to debate questions - have improved enormously. (I really wonder if Hillary's strategy of never having these interviews and no primary debate is wise. It does reduce her exposure, but it means she will have little practice.)

The good news here:
- Hillary is less ahead - but still VERY much a favorite. If people actually here she is losing support, she may hemorage more if there are many "picking the winner" people.

- Warner's barage of positive press in the media and in the blogosphere is not making an impact. Nor is the fawning Edwards' press. Biden (a threat to Kerry as they both can compete on the basis of foreign policy expertise) is also going nowhere - even though some in the press have pushed him and he seems to always be on Sunday TV.

[ProSense]

6. Good points!

I agree with Fedup too, I like where JK is at this point.

[ginnyinWI]

7. Besides Biden, the other possible competition is Dodd.

He's interested, too. So we'll have to see how both of them pan out against Kerry. I think Biden's personality disqualifies him--and then there is that nasty plagarism thingy. But Dodd seems clean so far--?

[karynnj]

4. Although the only significant difference between the March and August

polls is that Hillary is down - as shown on other polls too - I like the trends here. Kerry has still received almost no positive press - other than the George Will comment - so the fact that he and Gore are not significantly different is great.

Kerry's numbers could rise if he gets some coverage as the Democrat's voice on National Security. The Democrats are in a weird position. Bush seems intent on making national security the issue they win on in 2006. As a party, they have given Kerry almost NO support since Nov 2004, but given Kerry's well known (because the Republican's ridiculed them in 2004 ) positions that people are coming around to - the natural and perhaps ONLY Democrat who can answer on the security question is Kerry. It is the issue he was concerned enough - pre 911 - to write a book on. (Clark's expertise is more straight military. Hillary's is non-existant.)

[TayTay]

8. Interesting new DU poll

That I found to be challenging.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2811020

[karynnj]

9. I never archived earlier ones, but if anything he's doing a bit better

I think. This poll is devious, as people, for the most part, are not going to answer honestly. People supporting others will want to vote that he is not electable. It is there biggest real argument against Kerry. But, I suspect about the only one who would do better is Al Gore. We've seen Hillary polls - and they look similar to this - except many yes votes also say they don't want her.

I voted and commented on some of the comments.

[ProSense]

10. The poll is not, but

some of the people responding are. If you think about the question they are answering, which is will Senator Kerry be the nominee, Kerry is still doing great in this poll. Kerry has 37%. Considering the other 63% support one of the other 13 candidates, that leaves them each with an average 4.9% of the vote. Even if you narrow the field to eight, that's an average 7.9%.

Bayh
Biden
Clark
Clinton (not running, IMO)
Daschle
Dodd
Edwards
Feingold
Gore (not running, IMO)
Kucinich
Richardson
Vilsack
Warner

[demdiva]

11. oh interesting

the "not sures" went from 8% a year ago to 18% ....