Hirsch report.

[Gregorian]

I posted this in GD, and it sank like a rock. I think people need to realize that we are going into a time where our way of life is about to change dramatically.




With what appears to be an impending pivotal moment in world history regarding dependence on easy energy, this Dept. of Energy report is something of a handbook on what to expect in the coming years. Its 70 pages that are loaded with information that we should become familiar with, since our lives are so affected by the subject matter within it.

I decided to post it because as pessimistic as I am, even I was a bit nervous after finding out what the report had to say. We need vigilance now, like we've never had it. A leader now, like we don't have. Time is of the essence.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report#Intro

Direct link to Hirsch Report

http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_pr...

[bananas]

1. Could you summarize it?

Or pick out some of the highlights?

There's an html version here:
http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm

[Gregorian]

3. It's an overview of where the world stands with respect to petroleum.

It posts the different projected times that the world will hit peak oil. The US has already hit peak oil. The economic impact of peak oil, and it's ramifications. The fact that our petroleum based transportation is worth $2 trillion, and that it won't be changed quickly. It'll be phased out slowly. So even if we start immediately, things will take quite a bit of time to achieve. The historical and projected useage of petroleum in different countries around the world.

Basically, we've been lazy. We're used to cheap oil. Firestone, GM, and one other big company, essentially destroyed our previous transportation infrastructure back in the early part of the last century. And they were found guilty and "fined". We had electric trollies between cities. We had an efficient system. But the big companies wanted to sell tires, etc. So they literally bought up the rights, and tore up the whole mess. Then came the freeways, cars, and suburbs, to make America the stinking mess that it is today. Now it's unsustainable. We don't have the fuel to keep it going. We can't burn the fuel without melting the icecaps. In a nutshell, we're screwed. And people don't care. We need a leader to help get the importance of this out there. We had our wakeup call in the 70's. And we did nothing. We're still doing nothing. We'd rather kill Iraqis than change. I know that sounds stupid. It's a crude and partially incorrect way to put it.

The report is just something to use as a reference.

My prediction is that life is going to look a lot more like 1890 soon.

[Celebration]

4. Then bye bye Walmart

Hope the zero point energy guys come through. If not there are always bunkered houses made of used tires. I hope we don't have to ride those silly bicycles with one humongous wheel and one tiny one. Fashion in 1890 also leaves a lot to be desired.

[nashville_brook]

5. i understand there's a lot of controversy about peak oil -- i don't get it

it's a non-renewable resource. how could it NOT hit peak?

the thing about the trollies pisses me off royal. 60 minutes did a segment on their murder by the oil interests, many years ago. every little stinking town had trollies. we'd be so much better off today if we still had that wonderful turn-of-the-century technology. grrr.

as i was cleaning house this week thinking about bird flu i had the same thought about life looking like the 1890s -- closed windows, heavy drapes -- lots of the old-fashioned housekeeping was designed to keep the house "healthy." not let "bugs" in. depressing.

[Gregorian]

6. Not just trolleys. Fast and easy are a think of the past.

After WW2, ranchers were forced into making more money to support themselves. I don't know the whole story. But what I do know is that the petrochemical companies paved the way for a new era in farming. What used to be small family farms, bla bla bla. Too big a subject to do in a post. Especially when I need another cup of coffee. Which brings me to-

The basic idea is that in 1890, things were SLOW. And DIFFICULT.

Do it yourself, is the basic idea. Soap. Make it or don't have it. Fruits and vegetables that are shipped an average of 1500 miles before getting to the grocers, will disappear. Walmart, gone.

And the real problem as I see is not that we are dependent. I don't know how to make butter, or soap. I don't have a horse.

I recently bought a very old farm. It has a cemetery, and is totally selfsufficient. A neighbor brought me a book of it's history. They had a huge butter churn in the barn that horses would drive. Chickens, pigs. I don't even know how to dress a pig.

We unlearned a lot in our petro-addiction.

I'm anxious for it to happen. I've waited thirty years of my life as I watched the damage. Not just to ice caps, but to communities, and families. What a wild ride of fast paced cultural explosion, good and bad.

But it's not all doom and gloom. Oil isn't gone. It's just that it isn't around in quantities big enough to supply our wants. But we have solar. And it isn't going to completely go back to 1890. That's a pretty dreadful thought. There are things that right now we can't do without oil. And those are the big mover items. But otherwise, cars, and local things we'll accomplish with solar. But still it's not a slam dunk. Cars take petroleum to build. Nuclear, perhaps. There are options. And workarounds. Local farmers will grow the vegetables. But no more papayas, cantelopes, etc. A lot is going to simply not be available.

Noone really knows what's going to happen. But a good guess is that slower and less are the keywords.

[Gregorian]

2. Sorry, that link failed. Here's the right one.

Same as the link on the Wiki page to the Hirsch report.


http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_peaking_of_world_oil_production_study_hirsch.htm