CDC Now Says 4, 000 Swine Flu Deaths in US

[Elmore Furth]

Seasonal flu has a death rate of less than 0.1 percent. The worst pandemic, such as the influenza pandemic of 1918, had a mortality rate of 2 percent or more.

Ordinary seasonal influenza claims the lives of 250,000 to 500,000 people around the world every year. Usually 90% of these deaths are people over 65 who already have significant health problems.

It still isn't clear that the swine flu is more lethal than regular flu but there are many stories of young people requiring extraordinary intensive care. This has created high anxiety in some places like the Ukraine.

http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/ukraine-deputy-minister-of-health-swine-flu-may-have-mutated-into-pneumonic-plague/

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: November 11, 2009
Filed at 6:07 p.m. ET

ATLANTA (AP) -- Federal health officials now say that 4,000 or more Americans likely have died from swine flu -- about four times the estimate they've been using.

The new, higher figure was first reported by The New York Times. It includes deaths caused by complications related to swine flu, including pneumonia and bacterial infections. Until now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had conservatively put the U.S. swine flu death count at more than 1,000. Officials said this week they're working on an even more accurate calculation.

The CDC says ''many millions'' of Americans have caught the pandemic flu virus since it first appeared in April.

CDC Now Says 4, 000 Swine Flu Deaths in US

[lapfog_1]

1. On Doctor Nancy yesterday

there is apparently serious talk about rationing the use of ventilators, as in choosing who should have one and who shouldn't.

There isn't a need YET to make such decisions, but the CDC is gearing up for the possibility.

[mhatrw]

3. Be sure to let us know how that turns out.

[lapfog_1]

4. If you are over 65 and have H1N1 with complications.

You will find out all by your self.



----

All I'm doing is relating what was said on MSNBC yesterday.

[Oregone]

5. And this is precisely the predicted problem months ago

People can be on vents 2 to 4 weeks, taking them out of circulation entirely. And these are oscillating vents, which are expensive and in meager supply. Once the vents get used up, the death rate can climb drastically. As of now, its small potatoes. But what happens when they can't treat all new cases?

[lapfog_1]

6. Since the pandemic was known to be imminent

for something like 6 months now, in addition to vaccine and tamiflu, should not the CDC ordered the production and purchase of a few thousand more ventilators? Could we have used some money from the stimulus bill to convert some car parts plant in MI to produce parts for ventilators (yeah, not the same, but some smart people could figure it out)?

[Oregone]

7. The US talks a good game, but they are terrible at this stuff

The vaccine shortage is but another example.

Yes, this was all obvious and predicted. Canada took immediate action and each province ordered more of these specific vents--here in BC, Im not sure they got more than an additional 2 dozen or so since they cost $15K a piece. In the US, I think they would rather save money and risk the people's health than waste the money if the pandemic fizzles out. Although I got my vax now, Id hate to be down south during the peak of this, where both vax and vents are in short supply.

[mhatrw]

2. Increasing their estimate by a factor of 4 in one fell swoop is an interesting tack.

[Chemisse]

8. So the death rate is similar or smaller than seasonal flu.

If 4,000 people have died and 'many millions' have been infected, that would make the death rate very tiny.

Let's say 4 million have been infected. That would make the chances of dying from swine flu 0.1 percent, or 1 in 1,000. Since 'many millions' inplies more than 4 million, that makes the rate of death even smaller.

It's really too bad we did not keep better track of the numbers of infected. We will never get anything more accurate than these ballpark estimates.

[Name removed]

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[steven johnson]

10. CDC: Swine Flu Has Sickened 22 Million in 6 Months

The H1N1 flu just keeps moving along.

Swine flu has sickened about 22 million Americans since April and killed nearly 4,000, including 540 children, according to startling federal estimates released Thursday.

And tight supplies of vaccine to combat the illness continue: Not quite 42 million doses are currently available, a few million less than CDC had predicted last week.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows nearly one in six parents has gotten at least some of their children vaccinated against swine flu since inoculations began last month. Another 14 percent of parents sought vaccine, but

In a typical winter, seasonal flu strains cause 200,000 U.S. hospitalizations and 36,000 deaths, the vast majority in people over 65. Seasonal influenza doesn't usually start circulating until November while swine flu began a big climb in September, leading to what CDC called unprecedented high levels of illness so early in a season -- and no way to know when the flu will peak.

CDC: Swine Flu Has Sickened 22 Million in 6 Months

[Techn0Girl]

11. Putting this in perspective ....

Remember that in any given year regular seasonal flu accounts for 36,000 deaths in the United states each year:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-r...

So for half of this years flu stats, swine flu has accounted for 4000 deaths - doubling that to get an approximation of a full year we have 8,000 H1N1 deaths.

This means that Swine flu accounts for less than 25% of the deaths of a given flu season (according to the CDC). So it would appear that Swine flu is actually a good deal less deadly than plain seasonal flu.


This Harvard epidemiologist agrees:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32877953

http://qbit.cc/harvard-mdreuters-h1n1-death-rate-similar-to-seasonal-flu/