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Respectful Insolence: David Kirby and the government "concession that vaccines cause autism"...

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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 05:29 PM
Original message
Respectful Insolence: David Kirby and the government "concession that vaccines cause autism"...
David Kirby and the government "concession that vaccines cause autism": The incredible shrinking causation claim
Orac
Link


...

What has Kirby all hot with excitement is a report that on November 9, 2007, the government conceded one of the vaccine injury cases in the Autism Omnibus. Before I deal with Kirby's premature gloating, I thought a little background would be in order. As you may recall, the Autism Omnibus is the name given to a huge case in which nearly 5,000 parents who believe their children's autism was somehow caused by vaccines are applying to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP). In the proceedings, overseen by Special Masters, several "test cases" were chosen, the first of which was Michelle Cedillo. The rulings on the plausibility of whether vaccines caused the autism of the plaintiffs in these test cases will determine whether the remaining thousands of cases can go forward. One thing that you should definitely remember when reading David Kirby's blather is that we are talking about legal plausibility, not scientific plausibility here. The way the Autism Omnibus proceedings are set up is to make the bar that the plaintiffs must jump with the evidence quite low, specifically on the legal standard of plausibility, which in essence means "51% probability," or, as one lawyer for the families called the standard "50% and a feather." Also remember that the entire VICP is set up to compensate any injury clearly caused by a vaccine. This is the case even if the evidence is not clear cut enough to meet a strictly medical or scientific standard. Indeed, let's take a trip back in time to June to see what I said about the Omnibus when it first started:

...

I first have to wonder where Kirby got a copy of a "sealed ruling" that was sealed to "protect the plaintiff's identity." Courts generally don't look kindly on a journalist publishing excerpts from a sealed ruling, especially when the ruling concerns a minor. Even worse, that propaganda organ for the mercury militia, Age of Autism, has posted the entire ruling. Reading it, given the unusually close correlation between the last round of vaccines and the permanent deterioration involved, I think the case may well represent a rare true vaccine injury. Be that as it may, it allows us to examine the ruling and determine that Kirby is playing semantic games with it to make it sound as though the government is making some sort of bombshell of a concession, as a brief summary of the case will demonstrate.

...

In other words, Kirby's wrong when he implies that the government conceded that vaccines cause autism, and the ever-excitable Kent Heckenlively is totally wrong when he out and out says it. All the government conceded was that it is more likely than not (remember the "50% and a feather" rule) that vaccines aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder (almost certainly genetic) that manifested itself as a regressive encephalopathy that had features of ASD. Also remember the purpose of the VICP. It is not to determine whether or not vaccines cause autism; it is to compensate families whose children were injured by vaccines, regardless of what the specific injury is.

I had contemplated marching dutifully through all nine of Kirby's questions but decided that it would be an exercise in futility. The reason is that Kirby's article is nothing more than one huge moving of the goalposts buried under his characteristic clever verbiage. Indeed, it's evidence of just how far the mercury militia has fallen and the claims of the antivaccinationists regarding vaccines and autism have shrunk from its days less than three years ago when it was being confidently stated by David Kirby and friends that mercury in vaccines is the One True Cause of autism. Let's remember what the full title of Kirby's book was: Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism Epidemic, a Medical Controversy, not Evidence of Harm: Vaccines Aggravating a Rare Preexisting Genetic Mitochondrial Disorder and Causing a Condition That Mimicks Autism. As for the rest of the mercury militia, J.B. Handley's Generation Rescue used to say with utter confidence that "childhood neurological disorders such as autism, Asperger's, ADHD/ADD, speech delay, sensory integration disorder, and many other developmental delays are all misdiagnoses for mercury poisoning." It then shifted the goalposts to say, "We believe these neurological disorders ("NDs") are environmental illnesses caused by an overload of heavy metals, live viruses, and bacteria." Now he's crowing in the comments of Age of Autism that this ruling is the "single largest bombshell in the history of the vaccine-autism fight."


So many good paragraphs to choose from. You really should just go read the whole thing over at Respectful Insolence.
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. I read this yesterday
so things may not be so cut and dried after all.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2008/02/25/tests_may_explain_statin_trouble/
Reuters / February 25, 2008
WASHINGTON - A new panel of tests aimed at finding out how drugs may damage cells has turned up a series of interactions that may explain some of the serious side effects of statin drugs, researchers said yesterday.

more stories like thisStatins, the wildly popular cholesterol-lowering drugs, may interact with at least one blood pressure drug to damage the mitochondria, the powerhouses of cells, the researchers reported in the journal Nature Biotechnology.

Their study also may lead to the development of drugs to treat diabetes and diseases of aging as well as better ways to screen for drug side effects, the researchers said.

Vamsi Mootha of the Broad Institute at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said the team had made its new database freely available to other scientists to use for screening drugs.

The mitochondria are structures in cells that make adenosine triphosphate, or ATP, which helps power cells.

Mootha's team tested more than 2,000 drugs on cells to see how they might interfere with this process.

Their test looks at gene function, ATP levels, and other measures of how well the mitochondria are working.

Many patients who take statins have reported side effects that include muscle pain and weakness. The cause is not well understood, but Mootha has long suspected the mitochondria are involved. The effects have been hard to pin down because studies of different groups have produced conflicting results.

Mootha's team said its findings showed some statins lower ATP levels and interfere with the mitochondria.

Of the six statins present in the screening collection, three - fluvastatin, lovastatin, and simvastatin - produced strong drops in cellular ATP levels and mitochondrial activity, the study said.

more at link

If so many drugs can cause damage at this level, then it stands to reason that vaccines may also do so. More studies are needed for sure. Mojo
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I don't think that's really the point of the post, though.
Orac's writing about Kirby claiming that the guvment is admitting that vaccines cause autism - which ain't the case. I don't think he's saying that vaccines don't damage mitochondrial cells.
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chicagomd Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Actually,
No.

There is no way you can make a connection there at all. Drugs and vaccines are completely different therapeutic modalities, they are given in completely different ways, and are used, in general, in two completely different populations. The only similarity between the article you posted and the topic at hand is the word "mitochondria".

And yes, when it comes to the vaccine/autism debate things are VERY cut and dried from a medical and scientific perspective, despite what Mr. Kirby believes.

Although I agree with you that mitochondrial effects are very interesting. They are hands down the coolest thing in our cells, next to the golgi apparatus.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golgi_apparatus

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, golgi apparatus.
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arendt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I am just posting to keep the science honest. I am not taking sides.
You say:

"Drugs and vaccines are completely different therapeutic modalities, they are given in completely different ways, and are used, in general, in two completely different populations. The only similarity between the article you posted and the topic at hand is the word "mitochondria".

The first sentence is true; the second sentence is misleading. Vaccines contain many other components besides the immune marker of the disease being protected against. I believe the claim of the anti-vaccine camp is that these other components (i.e., mercury) are poisoning weak/mutated mitochondria.

So, there is (in their view) a connection between vaccines and mitochondria.

Would you care to clarify your statement?

-----

Once again, I am not taking sides. I am just asking you to not make such sweeping generalizations on a topic where minutiae count.

Thank you,

arendt
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chicagomd Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #5
19. Sure,
Drug effect mitochondria, and some are now speculating vaccines may effect mitochondria, especially in light of the fact that the whole mercury theory is in the toilet.

There is no evidence of any claim made by the anti-vaccine camp, only speculation. Thus trying to tie an article discussing measured effects of drugs on mitochondria and somehow suggesting it is similar said speculation is misleading and logically makes no sense.



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arendt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. Please give me a cite for "the whole mercury theory is in the toilet", so I can judge the science...
myself.

Not saying you are lying. I just like to read the evidence first-hand.

arendt
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chicagomd Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. Seriously?
You can start here:

http://www.jr2.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band118/b118-5.html

And then you can move on to this one:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-sci-autism8jan08,1,5109581.story

You can find information on the original studies at those links. Are you new to this debate or just being snarky?
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arendt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #26
32. Seriously. I am new to the debate.
I currently do molecular biology for a living (in spite of being trained as a physicist).

All I know here is that I have stepped into a minefield on this topic. I joined the thread because I was interested in autism, but the fight here seems to be about vaccines, not the disease of autism, per se. I had no idea this topic was a flamewar.

The fact that you have a cite, and that it is a massive study published in JAMA, tells me that you are arguing from science, not politics. I hope you can accept that I am doing the same thing. As a scientist, I appreciate a little bit of professional decorum when the topic is technical. I know this is a political board, though, so my standards are a bit lower.

My issue, as a scientist, is "what is autism? what are its basic biological causes?" I assume the classic "genetic predisposition, environmental trigger" model. The idea that Mt disorder was the predisposing factor intrigued me. Without a knowledge of the literature, it made sense to begin to look for a trigger where there is some cluster of cases, i.e. the vaccine link. The problem, you are arguing, is that this particular trigger (mercury) has been investigated and failed. I will read this study (when I have an hour or two).

But, since my head is already full of a bunch of other disease mechanisms (i.e., this topic is a "busman's holiday" for me), I suspect that a longitudinal study about a disease without a non-clinical test will be sleeping pill material for me. (correct me if I'm wrong; but they can't even define what is wrong at a molecular/neurological level, much less create a genetic or protein screeen for autism. Hell, they can't even define the symptoms clearly - "Autism Spectrum Disorder", and the beaten to death Aspberger's Syndrome.)

Sorry this is so disorganized, just logged in on my way out the door for saturday chores, and wanted to keep the exchange alive.

arendt
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. Here's a few links for you:
A meta-analysis that appeared in the journal Pediatrics

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/114/3/793

JHU's IVS:

http://www.vaccinesafety.edu/cc-thim.htm

For the claim that there is an "epidemic" of autism:

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/117/4/1028

Summary of a study from Denmark on thimerosal:

http://www.jr2.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band118/b118-5.html

Hope that helps :hi:

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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #32
36. Thanks again Arndt for your reasoned scientific perspective.
And, you are far from disorganized. Your post is entirely refreshing.

I wanted to direct you to two impartial sources of possible interest in this discussion:

New Thinking on Neurodevelopment
http://www.ehponline.org/members/2006/114-2/focus.html

And, a study from 2005 entitled: Comparison of Blood and Brain Mercury Levels in Infant Monkeys Exposed to Methylmercury or Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

http://www.ehponline.org/docs/2005/7712/abstract.html

Not that you have endless time to read these, but if you get a moment, I bet you'll find them of interest?

Still love that avatar BTW! :hi:
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #3
12. I am more interested in
the adjuvants in vaccines and what effect they may have on the mitochondria. I have no idea if the vaccines are causing the autism or not but I think as the science gets better more will be learned.
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chicagomd Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #12
20. Well,
if you actually took the time to look at the research being done you would have a very good idea if vaccines caused autism.

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arendt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. Pardon me, but we don't all have an infinite amount of time...
the poster was asking for information. You gave him attitude.

arendt
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. I'm not sure how long you have been in practice
but when I was a critical care nurse in the 70's and 80's a lot of the theories that were cutting edge science are now obsolete. Like I said, it is not a topic I have researched and I have no idea if there is a connection.
Just because there is no correlation in the science now does not mean that there will not be in the future. I have learned over the years to keep an open mind. Since I have no children, childhood vaccines haven't been a big concern of mine.

If I had told you five years ago that I suspected statins might cause damage to the mitochondria you would have told me there was no supporting data for the claim and you would be right but so would I. It will be interesting to see what they discover in the future one way or the other. I learned a long time ago to not make absolute statements.
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chicagomd Donating Member (437 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #24
43. If you had told me the earth was flat
350 years ago I might have agreed with you. And with the evidence available at the time we both would have been right.

The point being that this discussion, from a strictly medical and public health perspective, was over years ago with large amounts of very good evidence pointing against a vaccine-autism correlation. As with all things in science, the door is open to new ideas and theories. Unfortunately, the vaccine-autism paradigm changes literally every 5 years so people like Kennedy, Kirby, and now Jenny McCarthy can continue to put themselves in the public light. The theories never pan out: First it was the MMR, then autism was really misdiagnosed mercury poisoning, now it is mitochondria. In 5 more years it will be something else, and if history is any indication it will start with the letter "m". The constant will always be vaccines, and they can only cry "wolf" so many times.

Much like creationism, it is a thought in search of evidence, and is much more powerful in the legal and political realm. Thus the fight is taking place not in the sphere of science and medicine, but in politics and public opinion.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #43
48. "First it was the MMR, then autism was really misdiagnosed mercury poisoning,
now it is mitochondria".

Many believe there is more than one "simple" avenue to "autism" and/or it's features. MMR is still an issue, mercury - still and issue, and Mt-DNA is perhaps a contributing factor.
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researchmom Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #1
42. Mitchondrial damage....definately yes....stop vaccinating
I wanted to share my agreement with you my concerns of vaccines and the terrible mitochondrial damage being done. Vaccine campaigns only started en masse a few generations ago, no one in my family has any genetic diseases or mutations causing life threatening problems. My family history has nothing like that. Yet I believe that when my parents in the 50/60s were given the liquid polio vaccine tainted with SV40 I believe that is now causing three generations later my child to have a very serious and rare life threatening mitochondrial disease that requires her to have daily medication and routin blood exams (since she was only 5 days old) and she has to restrict her diet to low protein or she could go into a coma or die!

I have been researching this, and I will not take the credit, I am a belive in Christ and He has been guiding me in what to look for and I have found several scientific articles which link SV40 to mitochondrial DNA damage, oxidation damage and mutation. In fact I just found an article from the US FDA that discussed the problems of sv40 and what to do with it and the fact that it is causing very slow mutations in humans. This article was in the 1990s from a meeting. That means they know our DNA is mutating from SV40, which is causing an increase in cancers, no matter how many antioxidants you eat or drink, if your body is unable to repair itself because of a mutated gene damaged by a monkey virus injected into your family blood line via vaccination, well no amount of green tea will fix that and they know it.

That is why the researchers are pouring their money and effort into finding a patch using the sv40 RNA to try to fix the genetic errors, they're calling this gene therapy and they're also using adenovirus RNA. This is crazy and disgusting mad science and completley antichrist and I am researching this as deeply as I can and will write and publish a book to share with all of you who believe our government would never allow us little people to become a bunch of mutant freaks. Please research vaccination and don't just get your info. from the television and news owned by the same people who own the pharma companies, that our government protects so we cannot attack them in court. Please check out sites like:

www.thinktwice.com
http://www.sv40foundation.org/
http://www.jesus-is-savior.com/Health_Concerns/Vaccines/vaccinations_can_kill.htm
http://www.advancedhealthplan.com/healthindustry.html
http://vaccineawakening.blogspot.com/2007/05/unethical-doctor-pharma-experiments.html
http://www.vaccinetruth.org/
http://www.whale.to/vaccine/quotes15.html
http://www.fda.gov/cber/minutes/sv40012897.htm#5
http://www.squidoo.com/vaccinenews
http://www.viewzone.com/sv40.html
http://www.vaclib.org/email/babytest.htm
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WoodrowFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #42
44. good job
Edited on Mon Mar-10-08 07:24 PM by WoodrowFan
Good job, no one before has EVER been able to write a first post that was so amazingly illogical and so able to ignore simple science and logic that they were able to make it to my ignore list on their very first try! :toast: NICELY DONE! :party: Your family had vaccines 3 generations ago and THAT is causing your child's illness???!!?? WOW. The simple number of things that make no sense in your post are almost beyond counting. And the links at the bottom, icing on the cake! "jesus-is-savior.com"? Why, where else would one go for medical advice! Amazing, simply amazing!

Please go away. Find some other site to pollute, ok?

and finally bye-bye!!

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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #42
45. Ignorance like this kills people
Please educate yourself on what these diseases were like and then you might understand why vaccines are so important.
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cosmik debris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #42
46. Potential Darwin Award Winner! n/t
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lizerdbits Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-10-08 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #42
47. Why let vaccines kill your child
When you can let your loving god do it with disease.
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bvve Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
4. mercury & autism
So the Special masters found that the mercury aggravated
"a rare preexisting genetic mitocondrial disorder". 
Yet, neither the rarity of this disorder, nor the specific
defective gene is known.
Absent the exposure to the mercury, the masters found that the
child would not be injured and therefore should prevail in her
claim.  Mercury is a toxic substance that may have caused this
child harm.  How many other children who have these
"rare" genetic variances that were aggravated by
mercury?  How can they be marginalized if they are found to
have been injured by the mercury?
Attack David Kirby or J.B Handley?  How about attacking the
parents of the injured children, or better yet the children
themselves?
This is not the "single biggest bombshell in the history
of the vaccine-autism fight".  Not yet.  This is a
significant finding that is not getting any press.  It is just
too scary.
  
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
6. Here is a link to Kirby's blog for those interested in actually reading the ruling -
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/the-vaccineautism-court-_b_88558.html

In sum, DVIC has concluded that the facts of this case meet the statutory criteria for demonstrating that the vaccinations CHILD received on July 19, 2000, significantly aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder, which predisposed her to deficits in cellular energy metabolism, and manifested as a regressive encephalopathy with features of autism spectrum disorder. Therefore, respondent recommends that compensation be awarded to petitioners in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii).

Any "paragraph" that begins: I didn't want to blog about this latest screed by mercury militia enabler David Kirby is far from "Respectful".

FYI, this "surgeon" doesn't like Bill Maher for his "anti-God" rants either.
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Quite a scathing retort.
FYI, Orac links to the actual ruling in his post as well...but I guess you'd have to click on the link to get that.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I did click on the link, but I found myself most interested in his rant against Bill Maher.
Also, I wasn't making an attempt at "scathing" - sorry to disappoint.
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. What does Bill Maher have to do with any of this?
Also, can you point out where Orac posted that he doesn't like Maher for his "'anti-God'" rants? I was under the impression that Orac's issue with Maher was his stance on Altie med.
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trotsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 11:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'm glad Orac decided to weigh in.
He utterly demolishes the anti-vaxers and illustrates their retreating stances.
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. what is interesting
Is that he makes a big deal that the burden of proof is just 50% and a feather. I have to say that I don't take any great comfort that the panel could possibly have found that there was a 49% chance that this reaction was actually not due to the vaccine, and still awarded the money. Of course he has no evidence at all that they considered this a close question, only suggests that it could possibly have been. No matter how they viewed the evidence and the probabilities, I just am not comforted by this............

And the fact that the transcript was published..........uh..........it sounds like Orac would just as soon we not have this information.

He probably likes governmental secrecy, too. Wonder what his stance is on FOA requests, open government, etc.?
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Well, the order was apparently sealed by a judge to protect the rights of the minor.
But what the hell do those judges know, huh? :crazy:
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. it's a whistleblower thing
I get the very strong feeling that the kid's family had a part in getting this informatation out. Of course, I can't prove it. But, in any case, the name was not leaked so there aren't any privacy issues.
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trotsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. Well, that IS a big deal.
No study would stand up to scrutiny if it only showed a relationship 50% ("plus a feather") of the time.

Too many variables to blame any one thing. But the bar is set very low - and do you know why? So BIG EVUL GUBMIT in bed with BIG EVUL PHARMA will pay out to compensate those who may have possibly been harmed by a vaccine. What a rotten conspiracy they must have to kill and poison people when they can't even rig the courts in their favor. :rofl:
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. really not a laughing matter
Not anything at all amusing about this case.
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trotsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. I'm laughing at the anti-vax conspiracy nuts.
Not this poor child. Nice try, though.
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
15. Orac appears to conflate 2 separate issues.
Edited on Fri Feb-29-08 09:56 AM by Jim__
Namely:

The rulings on the plausibility of whether vaccines caused the autism of the plaintiffs in these test cases will determine whether the remaining thousands of cases can go forward. One thing that you should definitely remember when reading David Kirby's blather is that we are talking about legal plausibility, not scientific plausibility here. The way the Autism Omnibus proceedings are set up is to make the bar that the plaintiffs must jump with the evidence quite low, specifically on the legal standard of plausibility, which in essence means "51% probability," or, as one lawyer for the families called the standard "50% and a feather."


That sounds like 50% and a feather is the requirement for the autism cases to go forward; and that is a legal plausibility.

However, the actual ruling in the case appears to be both a scientific and a legal ruling:

Medical personnel at the Division of Vaccine Injury Compensation, Department of Health and Human Services (DVIC) have reviewed the facts of this case, as presented by the petition, medical records, and affidavits. After a thorough review, DVIC has concluded that compensation is appropriate in this case.

In sum, DVIC has concluded that the facts of this case meet the statutory criteria for demonstrating that the vaccinations CHILD received on July 19, 2000, significantly aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder, which predisposed her to deficits in cellular energy metabolism, and manifested as a regressive encephalopathy with features of autism spectrum disorder. Therefore, respondent recommends that compensation be awarded to petitioners in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii).


Since medical personnel concluded that compensation is appropriate in this case, my guess is that their determination is scientific; and I assume their scientific conclusion was passed by legal personnel with respect to 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii).

I haven't been able to find this statute (42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii)), so I'm not sure that the 50% and a feather applies to it; and Orac presented no evidence that it does.

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trotsky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #15
23. You should write to him if you have a question.
He's responded to me before.
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. Even if it does
He certainly presented no evidence that the 50% and a feather was the consensus on this particular case. I thought this part of his argument was quite silly. First, it was pure conjecture that their conclusions were 50% and a feather, and second, it is of little comfort to any of us if that was their conclusion. It was just a very weak argument.

And, the fact that this was supposed to be sealed might be some sort of strong legal argument of some type (or it may not), but that absolutely does not address the facts in the case in any way whatsoever. It is another "so what" as far as vaccines and their connection to autism. Personally, I feel that the more information out in the public domain, the better. And the kid's name was not revealed. All that aside, sealed or unsealed has nothing to do with the facts of the case.

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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. He brought that up to point out that they weren't using...
a medical or a scientific standard, but rather a legal one (and in tort cases, that standard is substantially lower than would be considered acceptable in the sciences).
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Feb-29-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. even so
A preponderance of the evidence is still a preponderance. And we still have no indication that this was a close decision at all anyway. I'm not particularly interested in legal terms. Whatever the level of evidence, the board obviously felt this kid was injured by the vaccine.

Honestly, I just think it would be a good idea to just concede that vaccines can cause autism, as defined by the DSM-IV-TR, but just very rarely, and through the mechanism described in this case, but that the merits of vaccines for the population far outweigh the negatives. Now that would be a decent argument, perhaps. Then we could all agree to try to recognize kids with certain characteristics that are at risk. That makes a lot more sense than all this denial, all this speculation about the level of evidence, all the obfuscation and fake outrage about whether the records should still be sealed, etc. Just talk about how tragic this case is, but that it is one case, and extremely rare.......... I might be convinced by something like that. As it is, his tone is offensive and his arguments are not logical. It isn't convincing and it is condescending.



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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. Hmm..
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 12:33 AM by varkam
A preponderance of the evidence is still a preponderance. And we still have no indication that this was a close decision at all anyway. I'm not particularly interested in legal terms. Whatever the level of evidence, the board obviously felt this kid was injured by the vaccine.


Big difference between "being injured by the vaccine" and "government concedes that vaccines cause autism" as Kirby tries to argue.

Honestly, I just think it would be a good idea to just concede that vaccines can cause autism, as defined by the DSM-IV-TR, but just very rarely, and through the mechanism described in this case, but that the merits of vaccines for the population far outweigh the negatives. Now that would be a decent argument, perhaps. Then we could all agree to try to recognize kids with certain characteristics that are at risk. That makes a lot more sense than all this denial, all this speculation about the level of evidence, all the obfuscation and fake outrage about whether the records should still be sealed, etc. Just talk about how tragic this case is, but that it is one case, and extremely rare.......... I might be convinced by something like that. As it is, his tone is offensive and his arguments are not logical. It isn't convincing and it is condescending.

:rofl: Why would that be a decent argument? Because you happen to agree with the conclusion despite the notable lack of solid scientific evidence to support it? I see...

You find Orac's arguments illogical, but you buy Kirby?

Have a good one :hi:
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Celebration Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. if you agree with him
then maybe you can tell me what a sealed vs. unsealed document has to do with autism and vaccines and their connection or lack of connection to each other?
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. That's a very minor point that really has nothing to do...
with the meat of the argument.

:shrug:
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #25
31. I agree with you that the more information in the public domain, the better.
In a situation like this where you have, in just this case, almost 5,000 parents claiming that the child was given a vaccine and then almost immediately starting going downhill and wound up autisitc; that is naturally going to raise people's concerns. You can't just ignore the claims of 5,000 parents.

It sounds like in this case, government medical personnel conceded that there is a connection between the vaccine and the onset of the symptoms of autism. If that is correct, and if the underlying reason is a diagnosable condition; that could go a long way toward easing people's fears. It's probably not that simple. If there is a connection, there may turn out to be multiple conditions that can trigger a reaction.

Information helps people to make rational decisions.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #15
37. Very well said.
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 08:29 PM by mzmolly
The entire diatribe was odd.

Here is the statue he noted in his rant, but I don't find any mention of "feathers"? ;)

http://www.fda.gov/opacom/laws/phsvcact/300aa-15.htm

And, here is a link to the VICP website http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/

Looking at the numbers, http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/statistics_report.htm">HERE in the past 9 years there were over 5,200 autism related claims filed, over 300 such cases have been dismissed. ONE was paid, as noted above and the rest are apparently pending.
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varkam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. The "feather" comment comes from the plaintiff's lawyer - not the statute.
:shrug:
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-02-08 09:47 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. Thanks for the link!
Edited on Sun Mar-02-08 09:56 AM by Jim__
I took that link and backed it up a little bit to here; and I think the exact reference from the court doucment (42 U.S.C. § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C)(ii)) is to:

TITLE 42 - THE PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE
CHAPTER 6A - PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
SUBCHAPTER XIX - VACCINES
Part 2 - National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program
subpart a - program requirements

-HEAD-
Sec. 300aa-11. Petitions for compensation
...
(c) Petition content
A petition for compensation under the Program for a
vaccine-related injury or death shall contain -
(1) except as provided in paragraph (3), an affidavit, and
supporting documentation, demonstrating that the person who
suffered such injury or who died -
...
C) ...
(ii)(I) sustained, or had significantly aggravated, any
illness, disability, injury, or condition not set forth in the
Vaccine Injury Table but which was caused by a vaccine referred
to in subparagraph (A), or ...


Given that the court document states that it was medical personnel who reviewed the documentation, it was medical personnel who decided that the vaccinations CHILD received on July 19, 2000, significantly aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder.

I'd be surprised if medical personnel based their decision that the vaccine seriously aggravated an underlying disorder on other than medical (i.e. scientific) criteria.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-02-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. Exactly.
I'd be surprised if medical personnel based their decision that the vaccine seriously aggravated an underlying disorder on other than medical (i.e. scientific) criteria.

I think the problem lies in the fact that so many have refused to take an honest look at this situation due to the campaign to dismiss any connection?
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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
33. too late to reccommend -- so kick
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cosmik debris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-02-08 06:26 PM
Response to Original message
41. This is like saying that there were no WMDs in Iraq.
Edited on Sun Mar-02-08 06:27 PM by cosmik debris
The fact that there were no WMDs in iraq is verified, but many some people still say that the war against WMDs was justified.

Obviously facts are not going to change minds here.

I suggest you try a purely emotional argument featuring a lot of suffering babies and pathetic quadriplegics. Throw in some irrelevant statistics and links to 40 yr. old research.

Just remember that emotional anecdotes always carry more weight than logic, reason, or research.
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