http://www.slate.com/id/2297897/Two days after legalizing same-sex marriage in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo marched in the New York City gay pride parade. "You're going to see this message resonate all across the country now," he predicted. "If New York can do it, it's O.K. for every other place to do it."
But most states can't do what New York did. Their legislatures can't legalize gay marriage, because their voters have passed ballot measures that prohibit it under their state constitutions. The ballot measures were enacted years ago, when gay marriage was unpopular. Now many of the old voters who opposed same-sex marriage are being replaced by young voters who support it. But the old electorate, through its constitutional amendments, has handcuffed the new electorate. The living are being ruled by the dead.
Twenty years ago, gay marriage was a fringe idea. Ten years ago, it was gaining support, but opponents still outnumbered supporters. In a 2003 Pew survey, taken shortly before the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled that gay couples were entitled to marry, the national margin of opposition was 53 to 38 percent. In a 2004 Gallup survey conducted shortly after the Massachusetts ruling, it was 55 to 42 percent. In a Washington Post/ABC News survey, it was 55 to 39 percent.
That year, conservatives hustled to put anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendments on state ballots. One reason for their haste was the Massachusetts ruling, which set off alarms that judges might impose gay marriage in other states. Another reason was that Republicans needed a scary issue to mobilize the religious right in the 2004 elections. But the third reason was that the polls, from a conservative standpoint, were moving in the wrong direction. Conservatives often fret that traditional moral assumptions are unraveling. In the case of gay marriage, they're right.
So they took the issue to the polls. By 2002, voters in three states had approved constitutional amendments against gay marriage. In 2004, another 13 states joined the list. Two followed in 2005, eight more in 2006, and three more in 2008. That's 29 states.