We'll see a real effort to get rid of DADT, and one should expect the effort to be successful:Quinnipiac poll: Majority of Americans believe Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell should be repealed
By Matt Corley on Apr 30th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/04/30/quinnipiac-poll-dadt/Attitudes Toward 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Policy Radically Change
Poll: Broad Support for Gays in Military Including from Conservatives and Evangelicals
ANALYSIS by EMILY B. GUSKIN
July 19, 2008
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5387980&page=1But the Republican party is increasingly extreme: a majority of self-identified Republicans will not accept that Obama was born in the US, and a majority similarly thinks ACORN stole the 2008 election. Republican candidates will probably continue to cater to that base, as they have in recent years:Republicans Want 'Don't Ask' Law
Republican Candidates Approve of Anti-Gay U.S. Military Policy
© Kat Long
Jan 13, 2008
http://gay-rights-law.suite101.com/article.cfm/gopers_keep_dont_ask_dont_tellSeptember 2, 2008 04:10 PM
GOP Platform: No Gays in the Military
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/aubrey-sarvis/gop-platform-no-gays-in-t_b_123292.htmlSo DADT repeal will produce some rightwing backlash. The backlash will probably be inadequate to have any effect on DADT -- but the Republicans (for whom rightwing extremists are an essential constituency) will nevertheless attempt to capitalize on it, and (unfortunately) that will sway some fence-sitters on DOMA, where the public is more closely split:Support grows for federal DOMA repeal
By 365gay Newscenter Staff
05.12.2009 8:46am EDT
... In a recent public opinion poll, voters showed narrow support maintaining DOMA – 50-44 percent. The survey of 2,041 registered voters nationwide was taken by Quinnipiac University’s polling institute.
http://www.365gay.com/news/support-grows-for-federal-doma-repeal/This means that DADT repeal, if coupled with progressive losses in 2010, would reduce short-term prospects for DOMA repeal -- though it is unlikely to affect long-term repeal prospects (because continued Republican pandering to rightwing extremists will cause further hemorrhaging of moderates and centrists from Republican ranks)
A DOMA repeal attempt itself will produce a similar backlash, but an analysis of that should take into account the fact that many states currently have substantial and unfair restrictions on marriage: this means that a DOMA repeal is more difficult that a DADT repeal, and it suggests that it really would be advantageous to have as much control as possible of Congress and various state legislatures when attempting such a repeal -- in order to minimize the backlash, which presumably will include yet another Republican drive for a federal marriage amendment. Two or three years after a DOMA repeal, of course, the repeal will have become completely noncontroversial: the political hazard lies in the period immediately before and after the repeal
The bottom line: to win these fights, progressives need a substantial political power. It will probably help to remove as many rightwing DADT and DOMA supporters as possible from political office at all levels (local, state, and federal); allowing rightwing extremists to replace unexciting moderates and centrists in office won't help. So if you don't want to give to the DNC, at least do your best to keep some troglodytes out of office next November