Can same-sex marriage be legalized in Oregon in 2010?

[Athelwulf]

(Cross-posted in the Oregon forum.)

Nate Silver has a nice post analyzing the data surrounding same-sex marriage. He finds that support for banning same-sex marriage erodes by roughly two percentage points every year, on average. By his calculations, Oregon is on the tipping point right now: He predicts that this very year, about 50% of Oregonians would vote against a ban on same-sex marriage if one were being voted on right now.

On one hand, there are apparently some anomalies that I can't figure out. California voted for Prop 22 back in March 2000 (enacting the statutory ban on same-sex marriage) by 61.4%. Prop 8 passed with 52.24%. This is a shift of 9.16 percentage points over 8 years and 8 months. This works out to a shift of about 0.95 percentage points per year. If California conformed to the average of two points per year, it would have been on the tipping point back in 2006, and only about 44% would have voted for Prop 8.

On another hand, Oregon's trend towards support for same-sex marriage seems to closely follow, or even outpace, California's trend if you compare Prop 22 and Prop 8 to Measure 36. Let's use the 0.95 figure from above. By November 2004, about 57% of Californians would have supported a ban on same-sex marriage, which is almost exactly the vote for Measure 36: 56.63%. Silver claims that Oregon is on the tipping point this year, but California is on the tipping point next year.

What this boils down to is, I think we have a shot at legalizing same-sex marriage in Oregon in the very near future, if we appeal to the electorate by putting a measure on the ballot. Even if the majority of Oregonians still oppose same-sex marriage, my guess is the margin is very narrow now. If so, then it's only a matter of time.

Thoughts?

[FreeState]

1. Box Turtle Bulletin has an article on this today

http://www.boxturtlebulletin.com/2009/04/08/10512

Support for same-sex marriage bans has been dipping slowly and steadily over the years, if polls are any indication. On Monday, BTB’s Timothy Kincaid reported on some number crunching by Nate Silver to determine the last year in which such a ban would be supported by a majority in each state. To those who are more visually inclined, the results, according to Silver’s model, looks something like this:



Remember, this model only predicts the last year in which a ban on same-sex marriage would pass if it were brought to a vote. Thirty of these state already have a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, and this model doesn’t predict the ban’s demise for those states. Passing a constitutional amendment and rescinding one that already exists are two completely different things. What’s more, this model can’t predict when marriage equality might actually arrive. Time is on our side, but we still have a lot of very hard work to do.

Bold is mine - I agree with this. His model shows when the amendments to prohibit equality would not be passes - thats great news fro showing when we can expect court orders and judgements to stand - however it does not address when they will pass a reversal of an amendment.

Didn't OR amend its constitution a couple years ago? I think that it will be another 5 years on top of the estimates to see a reversal - but thats just a hunch not a scientific backing to it. I love OR and go there every summer to go camping - and hopefully one day when Im their I will be just as equal under the same laws as my brothers and sister:)

[Athelwulf]

2. Thanks for the report.

I do agree, passing an amendment and repealing one are different things. However, the numbers for popular support to repeal an existing ban on same-sex marriage cannot be surmised by brilliant minds like Nate Silver's until it's been tried. I don't think any state has tried it yet.

And yes, as it implies in my original post, Oregon amended its constitution in 2004 to ban same-sex marriage.

[FreeState]

3. Hopefully we wont get to use Prop 8 as the first test

but if most sentiment is correct and its upheld I think Prop 8 will be overturned in 2010 and if not then Id bet 2012 it would be repealed by more than 5%.

Is it difficult to get an amendment on the ballot in OR? Is there any effort on that front there?

[Athelwulf]

4. Not difficult. And no effort that I know of.

To amend the Oregon Constitution through initiative petition, you have to file it with the secretary of state, and then gather and submit a number of valid signatures of registered voters equal to 8% of all votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Once it's on the ballot, a simple majority vote is sufficient to ratify it.

I would really like to see an effort like this in Oregon. Right now I'm brainstorming if there's a way I can cause this to happen, in some small way. Such a measure would get lots of attention, and history would be made no matter how the vote goes. It would further legitimize the idea that gays are entitled to equal protection under the law just like everyone else.

[FreeState]

5. around 107,000 signatures from my math...

Kulongoski is up for reelection in 2010? Someone needs to get on it... that seems very doable. I wonder if Equality California is in contact with OR's groups? I know they have worked together on things before. Same with WA state were its much harder to pass an amendment (has to originate in legislature).

[Athelwulf]

6. Kulongoski is term-limited.

Governors in Oregon can only serve two terms consecutively, and this is his second. He will be eligible again in 2014.

Networking was on my mind. I think it's probably the only way to go. It's useless to start from scratch when the movement is already organized. I'm happy to see you're brainstorming as well.

[imdjh]

7. I would think that the transience in California population make it a tough call n/t

[Athelwulf]

8. I'm mainly talking about Oregon.

Or are you responding to how I consider California's trend towards support for equality in marriage laws oddly slow?