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We only had four people here last night. That surprised me, because I expected a lot more. I thought the fight was about the best in boxing, and had invited lots of people over.
As I said before, I thought that Cotto had to be favored on paper. But a few people (including here on DU) said that while true, they thought an upset was in the air. So, by fight-time, when we went through our ritual of "final predictions" here, I was one of three picking Margarito, with one friend sticking with Cotto.
The first round didn't surprise me, because Margarito starts slow. By the end of the second round, I said that if Margarito could keep that pace up -- as he said he would do a couple days ago -- then he would stop Cotto late. It takes a lot of energy to move the way Cotto did, and he wasn't able to get any rest during any of the rounds. Margarito's legs weren't going to wear out moving forward, at anywhere near the same pace Cotto's would.
Unlike Jim L., as the next few rounds went by, I didn't think Cotto landed the more effective punches. He certainly landed the cleaner punches, and he was winning some rounds. But he really didn't go to the body -- because you can't body-punch moving backwards, especially when you've made a career of planting your feet and digging in.
Cotto was punching up towards Margaito's head. His plane of power is at his own shoulder heighth and below (especially the hook to the body). Trainers have fighters throw jabs etc "high" on the bag, because it tires your arms out quicker. Adding it to the foot movement, I thought Cotto was making a mistake.
Margarito was landing uppercuts and other hard shots. While not as "clean" or "crisp," they were more effective. If you watch the film, you'll see Cotto's feet move when he gets hit. His nose wasn't really bleeding onto his face, which might mean he swallowed blood. Either way, that wasn't the usual bloody nose. It looked painful. That can impact your vision, too: things get blurry for a second every time the nose gets hit.
The small cut on the eyelid distracted Cotto. He keep pawing at that, and the other eye. In between rounds, Cotto began to look progressively more discouraged, and Margarito just seemed totally focused. When one of the later rounds ended, my friend who picked Cotto said, "Finally -- Margarito looks tired!" I said he did, but that is to his advantage: he knows if he is tired, Cotto is far more tired. Margarito just seemed a lot bigger. Not just taller, but like he was a weight class or so bigger and stronger. And Cotto is strong as heck himself.
Max and Manny had figured out what was happening, when Jim still was favoring Cotto. But I thought the HBO crew did a good job. By the 8th and 9th round, it became a matter of time. Cotto was brave, and he tried to change the tide by blasting some serious combinations. He was still dangerous. He really hasn't been a guy with one-punch power as far as head shots, and Margarito obviously takes a great punch. But I thought Cotto might dig a hook into the ribs. I don't care who you are: after fighting 9 or 10 rounds, Cotto could hurt you with a body shot.
I don't think Cotto should fight him again too soon. It is hard to see him making the adjustments needed to make any real change. Maybe body shots? But he would have to expose himself to do it. Maybe wait until Margarito has a few fights, and see if he becomes overconfident again, and takes fights for granted, as he did with Williams. But taking time off is important for Cotto right now.
I think it is very unlikely Oscar de la Hoya will fight Margarito. So it will probably be another Williams fight. That would be interesting.
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