Sports Illustrated's Dr Z picks the Giants, 24-20

[radiclib]

It seems he's trying to make up for lacking the balls to pick the Jets back in '69. This is the same guy that picked Miami to go all the way. :rofl:

[WilliamPitt]

1. I just peed a little.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. At least it was LAST year he picked the Dolphins

Even that was a farce. NFL teams have a 70% tendency to bounce the other direction if they improve or decline by 3 games or more from the previous season. That meant the '06 Dolphins were in plummet likelihood, based on rising from 4 wins in '04 to 9 victories in Saban's first season in '05.

How many flukes do the Giants need to hold NE to 20 points? That's what jumps out at me. I can argue that Jacksonville and San Diego have superior defenses to New York's. Normally when a team plays a worse defense in the Super Bowl than it faced in the playoffs, the points flow easily. Anyone picking the Giants needs to think in the 30s, IMO.

I'm rooting for the Giants but for a team with a -.6 YPPA Differential to win the Super Bowl would be an other worldly deviation from statistical-based logic. In fact, it would be beyond anything I've seen in 20+ years of applying stats to football, basketball and golf.

[Captain Hilts]

3. 'Balls'?

[ProfessorGAC]

4. Flip A Coin

That'll give you better odds than Zimmerman. I don't know how he keeps his job. He is wrong so often.
The Professor