Conference Playoff Picks

[TSIAS]

Time for predictions for the last 2 games before the Super Bowl in Miami. Judging from my picks so far, I'd ignore anything I say. :)

I do like New Orleans to beat Chicago. I still don't believe in my beloved Gator, Rex Grossman. I just love the tandem of Duce McAllister and Reggie Bush. They were able to run all over Philadelphia, similar to how Shaun Alexander demolished the Bears defense. Chicago's defense hasn't been the same since Tommie Harris and Mike Brown went on I.R. The 2 point spread is pretty low for a home team in the playoffs. I like N.O. + the 2 in Chicago.

I think Indy finally makes the Super Bowl against the Pats. Peyton Manning is due for a big game. On the artificial turf in Indianapolis, Manning has proven to be superb. Indy finally has their secondary together with Bob Sanders back. Indy's defense, led by Dwight Freeney and Cato June, finally get on track and shut down Brady and Maroney.

[Awsi Dooger]

1. I'll stick with my yards per attempt stuff

It's 6-0 in the first half against the spread when the difference is a half yard or more. But this year it's a very mediocre 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread, if for some reason you include the second half circus.

Ever notice that every single, "can you believe that!" bizarre turn of events happens in the second half? I'm amazed the commentators never mention that. Or that the second half counts when determining the advancing team.

Anyway, this week it's the Saints and the Colts with the YPPA edges so I'll take them in the first half. In the Super Bowl, it would be Indy over Chicago, Chicago over New England, New Orleans over New England, but no play if it's New Orleans vs. Indianapolis.

Chicago's numbers are skewed high since Tommie Harris and Mike Brown are missing from the defense that led the league in defensive YPPA. If you include the numbers from only the games that they've missed, Chicago is severely downgraded and would not be a play over New England.

New England is admittedly a bizarre team because they frequently play beyond their stats in the playoffs. Or should I say they score beyond their stats. New England's numbers are typically crappy in the playoffs but they benefit from implosion and inheritance. Some major stats sites like TwoMinuteWarning.com have New England assessed much higher than I do, since the Patriots score fairly highly in every category although they don't stand out anywhere. Last year New England had significant weaknesses and could confidently be dismissed in the playoffs, despite the 3 of 4 aura. This year the pass defense and rushing numbers are much better so it gives them a chance to hang around and allow nearby collapse.

[never cry wolf]

2. Pats and Bears

http://actasports.com/sows.php
Who will win the NFL Conference Championships?

January 17, 2007

There's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. I explained the system last year when, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks. If you want to learn more about the system, read last year's Super Bowl Stat of the Week, Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?

This system has only been used for the Super Bowl, but Mike Murphy at WSCR (sports talk radio in Chicago) asked me to try it out for the Conference Championships. Just the for the fun of it, I did. Here are the results for each game.

For the AFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Colts
Points Allowed Patriots
Point Differential Patriots
Fewer Net Passing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards Patriots
Rushing Yards / Attempt Colts
Opponent Net Passing Yards Colts
Opponent Rushing Yards Patriots
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Patriots
Opponent Total Yards / Game Patriots
Turnover Differential Patriots
Regular Season Record Tie

Patriots take eight categories and the Colts only three. The AFC #4 seeded Patriots look to be in the Super Bowl yet again (third time in four years!) with a road win against the #3 seeded Colts.

For the NFC Championship:
Category Team with Advantage
Points Scored Bears
Points Allowed Bears
Point Differential Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards Bears
Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards Saints
Opponent Rushing Yards Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game Bears
Turnover Differential Bears
Regular Season Record Bears

Wow, that is a huge advantage for the Bears, eleven categories to one. Looking at all 40 Super Bowls, the only perfect season in NFL history, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, had the only perfect 12-0 tally on the predictor system. The other four teams winning 11 categories on the predictor system (including the 1985 Bears) also all won the Super Bowl. As a huge Bears fan I sure hope this Super Bowl predictor system works for the NFC Championship this year!

[Phredicles]

3. I definitely think the Colts are ready to beat the Pats, and I HOPE

the Saints win, but that's a tough, cold home field advantage to overcome. So, with a heavy heart, I'm guessing we're looking at a Colts-Bears Super Bowl, in which case, with all due respect to Sen. Obama, Go Colts.

[hughee99]

4. Bears and Pats. n/t

[Joe1957]

5. Colts and Saints

n/t

[democracyindanger]

6. Bears and Pats.

I eagerly anticipate repeating to my NE fan buddy: "The last time these two teams met..."

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I blew the first half bet and don't even know who I'm rooting for now

The north-south field conditions work smack in Chicago's favor. I always love it when basic I-formation football destroys the newfangled airborne formations, but Grossman in the Super Bowl could really make that game less than it should be in terms of entertainment value.

[rep the dems]

8. I was thinking Pats Saints but the Bears are looking better than the Saints

so far. I hope they win.