Texas = Oklahoma versus USC?

[Writer]

I'm a Longhorn fan. Hook 'em all the way. But I take one look at Reggie Bush and I start thinking negative thoughts. I don't know if Texas will have a chance. Sure as hell, they earned it, but I recall a very powerful Oklahoma team being pummeled in the championship game.

What's your guesses on the point spread on the Rose Bowl?

My hope: Texas by 3.

My gut: USC by 14 or so.

[joeybee12]

1. Hard to say...

...I think Texas had a weak schedule, but they looked impressive in a lot of games. IF USC wins big, then it's clear the power has shifted to west coast teams now.

Gotta give USC the advantage, especially since it's in Pasadena.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I just might be able to guess this pointspread

Let's see, how 'bout USC -7. Yep, I think I'll go with that.

Actually it's been up for maybe a month at certain sportsbooks in Las Vegas plus offshore sites. The number basically hasn't changed. I saw -7 today at multiple spots. Many more places put it up today. It is possible it will change in an hour or two, once the big joints put up every number on the bowl games.

Here's my early analysis of the game. I favor USC but admittedly I'm an alum:

I'm much more worried than last year against Oklahoma. But essentially playing at our second home in the Rose Bowl should be a huge edge. Teams can cover up defensive liabilities much more easily at home than neutral site or on the road.

Plus, USC's defensive personnel is vastly understated. I have to chuckle every time I read USC doesn't play defense. Pete Carroll is a defensive coach. This year's team had major losses on the defensive line to the early rounds of the NFL draft, then the linebackers and secondary sustained major injuries all year. Now those guys are getting healthier. You saw that yesterday after two weeks rest. Keith Rivers should be completely healthy for the Rose Bowl and he's a major talent. The recruiting has been superb and the defensive lineup is flooded with young talent.

This game obviously has no chance to be an avalanche similar to last year. That OU team displayed severe vulnerability, nearly losing at Texas A&M and Oklahoma St while surrendering big points in each game. Texas had to fade a logically big home effort from Texas A&M and I don't downgrade them for that. But the relevant games to analyze are Texas' efforts against Michigan in last year's Rose Bowl and against Ohio St in September. I completely discount anything Texas did against the pantyhose Big 12 this season.

In last year's Rose Bowl, a 1-loss Texas team trailed Michigan 31-21 heading into the 4th quarter. Texas allowed a freshman QB to throw 4 TD passes. Plus that Texas defense included monster LB Derrick Johnson, a 1st round pick now starting for the Chiefs. Texas pulled out the game on a last second FG, 38-37. Against Ohio St, Texas controlled the first quarter then was clearly outplayed for the next 2 1/2 quarters. The Buckeyes stymied Young and had tons of chances to put the game away in Texas territory, forcing three turnovers in Texas' end. Credit to the Horns for limiting them to FG attempts, but if the Buckeye kicker hadn't missed the last attempt from 50 yards Texas would have lost. That would have provided a 9 point margin. Instead, Texas was only down by 6 and Young put together one big drive to pull it out. Then the Ohio St QB fumbled immediately and Texas added a safety to make the final score somewhat misleading.

So in Texas' last two games against opponents evening semi-pretending to be of USC's caliber, the Horns trailed by 10 and 6 in the 4th quarter and pulled out both games by taking 1 point leads inside the final 2 minutes. Now you insert Matt Leinart into the equation instead of Chadd Henne or Justin Zwick or Brian Robison. Damn, it was hard not to laugh during that last sentence. And you remember Texas' special teams collapsed against both Michigan and Ohio St, allowing massive returns almost without exception. You place Reggie Bush into the equation there.

Texas' big problem, as I detailed weeks ago in a thread here, is the Big 12 has become a pass happy finesse league, with 7 of the 12 teams averaging basically 130 yards rushing or much less, and 130 is 75th in the nation. So I'm hardly convinced Texas' defensive line against the run is that good. Unlike my favorite team, the Canes, USC has tons of creative formations and schemes and can either muscle you or spread the field with ease. Also unlike the Canes, USC has blue chip athletes in the interior offensive line so matchups against thug defenses are barely disconcerting, let alone insurmountable.

And one other thing, Texas almost plays into USC's hands by sitting there in the shotgun all game long. I'd be much more concerned about an opponent who lines up in standard formation and will eagerly muscle you head to head. Texas' attack is based on finesse, slow developing running plays and Vince Young taking off to use his athletic ability. I love Pete Carroll's chances to design a scheme to thwart plenty of that crap.

Matt Leinart has developed happy feet particularly when pressured from the outside. The Texas pass rush is very quick and aggressive from the outside and I'm sure that will blow up some plays and force sacks. But I'm not conceding anything to the passing game even though Texas' secondary is experienced and very talented. The 'SC scheme is extremely sophisticated with tons of motion influence that keeps the defense off balance and spreads the field. We run in passing situations all the time with great success and that always keeps the safeties playing run first. I think we can get Reggie to the perimeter frequently and that's where he is lethal.

Plus yesterday we never ran him downfield in pass patterns. Frankly, I think we saved that since we didn't need it against UCLA. Be prepared for a heavy dose of White at tailback with Reggie forcing a mismatch in the slot. We used that more in the Orange Bowl last year than we displayed all season and OU had no clue.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Updated pointspread: USC by 6 to 7

I indicated it might change once the big joints put up the number tonight. Indeed, the Stardust used USC -6 which means they think the 7 was too high. A few other spots compromised at -6.5 but there are still plenty of 7s.

[jobycom]

3. Texas by 35.

Nah, not really. :-)

[Writer]

5. Ha! Honestly, what do you really think?

[CatholicEdHead]

6. Penn State should really have had a shot as this

[northzax]

7. to be perfectly fair and reasonable

and I'm a big ten fan (well, Pac Ten as well, of course) both USC and Texas would beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions don't have the offensive firepower to play with either one of them.

[joeybee12]

10. I agree, didn't go undefeated, can't complain...besides, Paterno lucked

out with his bowl selection--FSU sucks, and Penn State will finish #2 in the country--if they had gotten any other bowl pairing, Penn State would probably have been beaten.

I say Joe should retire after the game--he's not gonna get another chance to do as well as this season.

[northzax]

11. number 3 in the BCS

contractually, the top two spots belong to Texas and USC, in whichever order matters. Still, he's coach of the year, sure he got lucky a few times, but who doesn't? it's all part of coaching. another year in the top five, and Penn State will start a cloning program.

And wouldn't it be great to have all the chips fall in the right place? we could have two teams from the Big Ten and two from the PacTen in the top five.

[joeybee12]

12. 2 teams in the top 5? Ain't gonna happen when Notre Dame spanks

the heck out of OSU!

[northzax]

13. what is it with you ane people named Brady?

do you, by any chance, havea bunch of step sisters? :)

[joeybee12]

14. Do you mean EVIL stepsisters?

;-)

[northzax]

18. you calling Marcia evil?

you're no 'murican.

[joeybee12]

21. Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Penn St will never finish ahead of USC

The Trojans can get smoked by 30 points and still finish second in the final polls. That 2-time defending champion and long winning streak is automatic earned respect, and a cushion against a drop of more than one spot. It was the same in 2002 when Miami was the defending champ and had a 30+ winning streak. I even won a side bet with a friend who claimed Miami would drop below #2 if they lost to Ohio St. He made a very poor wager. The final poll wasn't even close in regard to #2 and #3.

Now, Texas may fall to #3 with a loss, but only if it's embarrassing and one-sided. A competitive loss keeps Texas at #2. Penn St. is not going to receive the standard credit for a huge bowl win, not when the opponent is a 4-loss FSU team.

[idlisambar]

8. USC and Texas are undefeated

Penn State isn't. Granted a 4 team playoff would be nice, but if you are going to pick 2 teams it couldn't be more clearcut.

[RoyGBiv]

9. As an OU fan ...

I will say based on what I have seen that Texas is a more balanced and consistent team than OU was at this same point, so I wouldn't base my worries on that alone. OU was overrated last year pretty much the entire season, and its quarterback wasn't as good as his press clippings might indicate.

I would worry about Bush. Your defense hasn't been heavily tested against the kind of offense USC throws into the game. I think it is good, but I just don't know how good it will be against that kind of player. Which game the Texas defense brings to the matchup will be a big key. The Longhorns have shown moments of brilliance, but at other times I've been left scratching my head wondering what they did in practice the previous week or if they studied any film at all. I worry how they'll react to USC's offense in other words.

And, in part, this really boils down to Brown. I don't understand him, and I think he has made some monumentally bad decisions in the past at pivitol moments. The Simms vs. Applewhite controversy, particularly when playing OU, did not speak well of his ability as a coach, imo.

In short, I think Texas has the talent to win. The question in my mind is whether it will be utilized appropriately.

As for the spread, I bet on Texas with a friend and was given 11 points.

[Writer]

16. Simms had politics written all over it.

I doubt seriously that Brown wanted Simms up there. Do you recall how often he yanked Simms to put in Applewhite at the last minute to save particular games?

Simms' dad is all there was to it for Chris Simms.

[RoyGBiv]

17. Yes, but that's the weird part ...

I'm thinking of a particular OU-TX game about 3 or 4 years ago. Simms was doing *nothing* against OU's defense. I can understand him keeping him in to start the 3rd quarter, but once he came out playing even worse than he had before, it made absolutely no sense to keep him in as long as he did. He finally put Applewhite into the game, but it was way too late to recover.

I understand the politics involved, but Brown is still the coach. He either stands up to it for the good of the team or he doesn't. Brown didn't, and it makes me respect him less.

[theHandpuppet]

15. I'm no Longhorns fan

But I still think the Horns will hook 'em, brand 'em, and serve 'em up with a bloomin' onion!

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[Awsi Dooger]

20. The projected score is USC 39, Texas 32

That's if you accept the pointspread and over/under. USC is -7 with a total of 71 so that equates to 39-32.

Here's a link to the full list of bowl game pointspreads: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/index.html