Mayweather vs Pacquiao

[H2O Man]

As you may have heard, negotiations are almost complete for the top two boxers in the world to meet. It should be on or about March 13.

Pacquiao wouldn't agree to May or June, because he is running for political office. If the fight had been then, it could have been at Yankee Stadium. It looks like Vegas, though Texas and New Orleans are still possibilities.

There is a huge pile of money on the table for this fight. There are only a few details, regarding how that pile will be split -- and not only between the two fighters.

The interest will be enormous. As far as predictions, keep in mind that anyone who says that one man is sure to win is full of baloney. Both have the ability to win the fight. That said, my early prediction is Mayweather by a 12 round decision, in a fight that will be at a far different pace than Pac Man supporters hope for.

(Too bad about Roy Jones, Jr. He needs to retire. He risks long-term impairment already.)

[Captain Hilts]

1. Typo in the title!

I'm rooting for Mayweather all the way.

[H2O Man]

3. Fixed.

Thanks.

Floyd has a difficult task. But Manny has a nearly impossible task.

My younger son noted that while some boxing writers are comparing this to Leonard vs Hearns 1, it is actually more like Leonard vs Benitez. Pac Man, like Leonard, is a super fighter, who is a darling of the media. Mayweather, like Benitez, is a master boxer, a craftsman who is nearly impossible to hit.

The difference is that unlike Benitez, Floyd always trains very hard. Benitez often trained less than two weeks for big fights; in fact, he only trained three days for Duran. And won every almost every round.

[Captain Hilts]

6. You know, the press and a lot of fans really miss Michael Spinks, who was a good face of boxing.

Good fighter. Good looking. Good with the press. You name it. The whole package.

The fight game kind of tanked when he retired.

[H2O Man]

7. Michael Spinks

was a class act, both inside and out of the ring. He was at his best, in my opinion, before moving up to the heavyweight division. He definitely ranks among the very best light heavyweights. And it was his physical strength, skill level, and intelligence in the ring, that allowed him to win the heavyweight title.

His last fight, which was a title unification bout with Iron Mike Tyson, was his only loss as a professional. For many casual fans today, it is the one fight of his that they know of. That's a shame. It's also too bad that he never fought Holyfield, either at light heavy- or cruiserweight. My money would have been on Spinks.

It's funny that you mention him .... his name came up in a conversation with a friend earlier in the day. I had said that Holyfield, Roy Jones and Jermain Taylor need to retire, and that if boxing had a true federal commission, none of the three could fight again (at least in the US). My friend said this is true, but that old fighters have never had the insight needed to grasp what is best for them. I said that one of the things I admire the most about Michael Spinks is that he hung up the gloves at the right time, and never attempted a comeback.

It's strange: guys like the great Joe Louis fought way too long, because they were broke (or worse). Roy Jones has made great investments to secure his financial future. But, he risks not being secure in a more important way, by continuing to get his brain injured. And for what?

[Condem]

2. Not that anyone gives a shit, H....

...but this fight could make me a fan, again.

[H2O Man]

4. It is what

boxing is all about. Most casual sports fans have difficulty naming any of the top ten heavyweights today. And boxing fans have tired of mismatches, bad decisions, and promoters like that tapeworm Don King. But this fight will be of interest to everyone. In part, it will be people putting their money down in hopes of seeing Mayweather get beat -- much like they wanted Jack Johnson or Muhammad Ali beat.

I suspect that I'll post at least 30 OPs before the day of this one!

[Captain Hilts]

5. Exactly. They need to unite the titles. It used to be that knowing the heavyweight champ

was like knowing who the president was. EVERYBODY knew.

[H2O Man]

8. The heavyweight champion

was not only the single most recognized athlete in the world, but he had a unique social/political status -- especially in the USA. More so than any other sport, boxing reflects the times .... and when we think of boxing's history, the heavyweight champions were always known in the context of the social-political atmosphere. Jack Johnson, Jack Dempsey, Joe Louis, Ali .... even, in a sad, self-destructive way, Iron Mike Tyson.

I hope that George Foreman II can clean up the division in upcoming years. He's a good man, and has the potential to make the division exciting again.

[Auggie]

9. Regarding location: Jerry Jones has suggested Cowboy Stadium

[H2O Man]

10. Yep.

He's making a very strong case for holding the fight there. Lots and lots of money! I'd put it as a very close second to Vegas. I think Pacquiao would prefer Cowboy Stadium.

[quickesst]

11. Hate to say it, almost.......

...but Pac-man will show Mayweather angles he's not had to deal with before. I don't think Mayweather, unless Pac-man goes suddenly limp, will be able to hit him hard enough, nor with enough consecutive blows to stop Manny P. Sort of, kind of wish I was wrong. Thanks.
quickesst

[H2O Man]

12. Interesting.

My son, who is a Mayweather fan, has expressed concerns about that. And these are real problems for Floyd.

I finally got to see the Pacquiao vs Cotto fight. My son watched it live, on my tv and dime, consuming my food & drink, while I was in surgery. I think that viewing it live did not allow him the opportunity to really study it, due to the excitement, as well as watching it later.

A couple other things: One reason I love HBO's 24/7 series is that it allows fans to hear how trainers think. Remember Freddie Roach saying that he didn't watch Cotto films to identify mistakes, but rather Cotto's habits. That is key. Some fighters, such as Ricky Hatton, do make glaring errors that expose them to punishment. But, neither Manny nor Floyd do. Or, at least not often enough to count on it happening -- whereas Hatton makes the same mistakes in each and every fight.

I can't remember which forum I posted this on before the fight, as I participate in boxing discussions on a few sites. However, I showed my son films of Cotto. After exchanges, he almost always stepped back to the right, and when he did that, he straightened up, without raising his guard. I said Pacquiao, who always wants to throw at very least the last two punches in an exchange (much as some people want that "last word" in an argument), would exploit that. And, sure enough, he did. Cotto ended up on the floor.

Now, Mayweather provokes his opponents. They end up wanting to knock his teeth down his throat. So they concentrate on head shots, which he avoids. Few opponents have gone to the body. Against Cotto, Manny had the superior body attack. In a sense, that doesn't make sense, for Cotto is a vicious body-puncher. But, he throws hooks, and looks for one to do damage to the right side. Manny went to the middle, lifting his punches up, under the ribs. In terms of organs -- because that is what body punching is all about -- Cotto is going for the liver shot. Pacquiao was going for more than that, because the truth is that our insides do not hold up as well as our skulls. Tissue versus bone.

Manny's angles are going to be most important, in my opinion, in terms of accessing the body. Few opponents have hit Floyd in the head often in a round. No one has hit him twice in a single combination. So, Manny will start at the body, then come up. And he has very good hand-speed.

However, Manny has never been as good coming forward, as going side-to-side, moving away, then quickly attacking. Against Floyd, he will have to be coming forward far more than usual. When he does, he has a tendency to shift his feet, actually stepping forward with his back foot first. That actually crosses the line between habit and mistake, but very few fighters have capitalized on it. Also, his habit of always trying to throw the last two shots in every exchange creates a vulnerability. Like his foot movement, of course, few fighters dare try to make him pay for this. Floyd will -- although doing so opens him up, too.

Now, watch films of Manny, and keep track of how he moves out of exchanges. He sets patterns. In fact, it is virtually impossible for any fighter not to. As a trainer, you try to prepare your fighter to mix up their tactics, and not repeat moves frequently (unless you are hurting the foe badly). But, certain things result in those patterns. It's almost like watching high school basketball players warm up before a game, then watching their first three shots. You identify their favorites, or their comfort zone. Then, when the games gets rough, when they start to get tired, or frustrated, or when they need to score, you know where they are going. And, you get there first.

Floyd's patterns tend to be in setting the pace, and selecting where he wants the fight to be. And, of course, counter-punching. Manny's patterns are found in where he plants his feet, his selection of combinations, and which foot he moves first when leaving an exchange when he has been hit.

This fight, more than almost any other, is indeed a chess match.

[Bluzmann57]

13. My Filipina wife worships Manny Pac

And I happen to think that Mayweather is the best boxer active today. So there could be a HUGE difference of opinion in the Bluzmann household. Hope she still lets me in the house after it's all over.