National predictions roundup for Pats-Colts game

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/wilbur/2009/11/13/week_10_prediction_roundup/

Who they're picking

Our roundup of picks for this week's Patriots-Colts game:

Mike Chappell, Indianapolis Star: Colts 30, Patriots 27. "Look for Bill Belichick to take away one of Manning's prime options -- that would be tight end Dallas Clark -- and make him look elsewhere. And look for the Colts defense to make just enough plays and get just enough pressure on Tom Brady."

Phil Richards, Indianapolis Star: Colts 27, Patriots 24. "The Patriots have protected well, but Colts ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be the best pass rushers on the field and the difference makers. Sure, the Colts secondary is ravaged by injury. At this point a year ago, they were starting Keiwan Ratliff and Tim Jennings at cornerback and using safety Melvin Bullitt as their nickel. Don't sell short the Colts' resourcefulness."

Phillip B. Wilson, Indianapolis Star: Colts 27, Patriots 24. "The Patriots line is banged up. The Colts are statistically better at rushing the passer. If the Colts get to Brady more, they win, or vice versa if the Patriots rattle Manning more. Beyond that, it's so close to call. When in doubt, go with the home team."

Bob Kravitz, Indianapolis Star: Patriots 28, Colts 24. "If the Colts were a little bit healthier and deeper in their secondary, they'd be my pick. But I saw storm clouds gathering in those final 21/2 quarters against Houston. For Indy to win, they'd better turn every red zone trip into a touchdown. Just sayin'."

Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Colts 38, Patriots 34. "All other Game of Week contenders curtsy in we're-not-worthy genuflecting as unbeaten Peyton Manning and way-hot Tom Brady prepare to duel in prime-time in a likely AFC Championship Game preview. Bonus: These are decade's two most winning franchises (Colts 109 W's, Pats 108). Think English might actually be a slightly better team at moment, but Colts know how to beat them (4-1 series run since 2005). That and venue (Horseshoes have won 10 straight home games) shape the pick, although it's a nervous one. Brady coming out smiling would not surprise the littlest bit. I'd have said Belichick, but even winning can't crowbar a smile outta THAT guy."

ESPN.com staff: Split down the middle.

Globe Staff picks: Patriots across the board.

Peter King, Sports Illustrated: Patriots 30, Colts 26. "This game will be everything NBC's Dick Ebersol could have hoped -- a showdown between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning with both running games stinking it up, Peyton with the ball in his hands inside the two-minute warning with a chance to win it ??? and ??? and ??? well, I can't spoil all the suspense now, can I? But let's just say I think Brandon Meriweather is going to make a play that'll have Andrea Kremer interviewing him alongside Brady after the game."

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Colts 35, Patriots 30. "The game of the week features the two best quarterbacks in football: Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Does it get any better? Those two will play well, so the deciding factor is which defense makes the big plays. At home, I look for the banged-up Indy defense to do it. Colts win."

CBS Sports staff: Two out of six pick the Patriots vs. the 2.5-point spread.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 23, Colts 20. "Defensively, the Patriots should focus on taking away tight end Dallas Clark with two inside linebackers and two safeties. Manning loves to throw to Clark in key situations, especially to move the chains. Once they watch the middle of the field, they need to give wideout Reggie Wayne some tough, physical coverage on the outside."

Peter Schrager, FoxSports.com: Colts 31, Patriots 30. "Thought the Brett Favre media hype was a bit much two weeks ago? You ain't seen nothin' yet. Here comes everybody's favorite mid-November matchup and it shouldn't disappoint. The Colts have won a franchise-record 17 consecutive regular-season games and can tie the 2003-04 Patriots (18) for the second-longest such streak in NFL history. I think they do the job. Look for this one to come down to the final possession and for Mr. Manning to get the best of Brady and Belichick with 0:01 on the clock. Giddy up."

USA Today staff: Seven out of eight go with the Patriots.

Pete O’Brien, USA Today: Patriots 24, Colts 21. "Credit the Colts for plugging numerous holes this season, but the dam's got to break sometime. The Patriots are the Upset Special."

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Patriots 17, Colts 14. "If the Colts have a vulnerability, it's their rookie corners. With a healthy Wes Welker in the slot and Randy Moss to stretch the field, Tom Brady should take advantage."

Yahoo! sports staff: Patriots across the board.

Our pick: Patriots 29, Colts 27. Colts kicker Matt Stover misses a 48-yard field goal in the game's waning seconds. Injured Adam Vinatieri looks on from the sideline and sighs.

[madinmaryland]

1. And the DU Patriot's staff??

Will's pick --

joeybee's pick --

forkboy's pick --

matcom's pick --

I know I am missing a couple.

[WilliamPitt]

2. Pats in a close one

Indy's secondary is in bad shape.

[Auggie]

3. Now you tell me...

[Arkana]

14. Indy in a close shave.

Sure, their secondary's banged up, but we have no secondary either and we have a complete inability to rush the passer. That's a dangerous combination.

[joeybee12]

16. Too close...

...that's what I'll predict.

[PVnRT]

4. From CHFF

Link

Our instinct tell us that the old-school Patriots, once the best big-game team in pro football history, are slowly regaining their mojo and that the one-dimensional offense of the Colts is vulnerable.

But the Cold, Hard Football Facts say otherwise:

The Colts possess one of the best pass defenses in football – fourth in Defensive Passer Rating while surrendering a league-low 4 TD passes and just 5.79 YPA (second). However, six of their eight games have come against low-quality quarterbacks.

So it sets up the biggest statistical battle of Sunday night: the great Tom Brady vs. the great but wounded Indy pass defense.

The New England pass defense, meanwhile, has improved dramatically in recent weeks, but presents less of an obstacle for Peyton Manning than the Indy pass defense does for Brady.

At the end of the day, the Colts crank out victories much the way the Treasury cranks out worthless dollar bills, and they keep the party going Sunday night … only to set up another meeting in Indy in January.

Indianapolis 28, New England 24

Go Colts! Since the Packers will probably once again drop a close one this week...to the fucking goddamn piece of shit asshole scum Cowboys.

[WilliamPitt]

5. The CHFF guys are total Pats homers, too.

Big pick.

[PVnRT]

6. I think they're more Brady homers than Pats homers

Of course, being a Brady homer is at least mostly justified, since he's good.

[WilliamPitt]

7. They're all local to Boston.

I know where they drink on Sundays, and they know where I drink on Sundays, and one of these days I'm going tro get them into my bar to watch games. It's a fact: they're Pats guys through and through, and overcome it only through their Spock-like devotion to numbers and facts. That's what sets them apart, but every sports reporter has a beloved team, and for them, it's New England hands down.

[hughee99]

8. Is Bob Kravitz the Indy version of Ron Borges?

The Globe would have at least 1 Colts pick if Borges was still there. Borges would have taken the Bucs and Titans the last few weeks.

[WilliamPitt]

10. Borges is at the Herald now

Got a big back-page interview with Brady in today's paper.

[hughee99]

11. I read his piece when I was trying to find his prediction for this weekend

(I didn't find it yet). I haven't read his stuff since his Globe days. He just got too predictable.

[WilliamPitt]

13. Insofar as

he always went after the Pats no matter what, you're correct. He was a Pete Carroll guy, and resented Belichick the moment he showed up, and dumped on the Pats every chance he got afterwards. I remember one week when he wrote that any team who picked up Adalius Thomas was making a great decision, and then the Pats picked him up, and he turned around and wrote about what a bad decision the Pats made.

He was one of the better boxing writers I've ever come across, and writing about boxing is a rare gift.

[caraher]

17. Probably

I don't know Borges but Kravitz is the Star's lead sports columnist and is a reliable anti-homer contrarian.

[hughee99]

18. Borges used to work for the Boston Globe (he's at the Herald now)

He was very good at getting information from the Pats when Carroll was coach and I guess he talked a lot to Bledsoe. When Belichick took over, he shut all that down, and from then on, the Patriots could do nothing right in his eyes. He would reliably pick them to lose every week and write articles about how whatever they did was a bad move.... Adaleus Thomas is a bad signing, they need to start Bledsoe instead of Brady, Mike Vrabel isn't an NFL quality LB (when they acquired him), Randy Moss will destroy the team, stuff like that.

[H2O Man]

9. Pacquiao .....

though Cotto has the skills and ability to pull off an upset.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Colts should win

Tops in the league in YPPA Differential, the most vital stat.

New England displayed plenty of vulnerabilities last week versus Miami. The transition from facing Miami's passing game at home to facing Manning on the road is about as much of a gap as possible in the NFL.

Still, the Colts have a tendency to abandon the running game, like last week versus the Texans. That would be masochistic against New England.

First team to 15 rushing attempts wins. That's always a safe forecast.

[Onceuponalife]

15. The Colts will win...

unless New England cheats then it could be anybody's game.

[Arkana]

19. Colts 900, Patriots -5.

[hughee99]

20. This will be an interesting week on Boston sports talk radio... n/t

[thatsrightimirish]

21. i can't believe they did that

why would you go for it that deep in your own territory, it's not like they have a bad defense

[radiclib]

22. Two years in a row now The Genius has handed it to the Colts

with incomprehensible panic moves. Unbelievable.

[Yavin4]

23. Maybe His VCR Broke?

That technology is kinda old.