Pacquiao vs Cotto

[H2O Man]

Saturday, November 14 - Las Vegas, Nevada (HBO PPV) - Welterweights: Miguel Angel Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs)

Certain truths are self-evident. Among them, that the term "Super Fight" is over-used by promoters seeking to inflate ticket and PPV sales. However, this coming Saturday, boxing fans are being treated to an actual Super Fight, between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. In a year when the sport has enjoyed a revival in every division except the heavyweights, this fight is second to none.

On paper, it would appear that Pac Man has to be favored. He is in the prime of one of boxing’s truly legendary careers. He has grown in size and strength, yet has retained his speed of hand and foot, and his punching power has translated extremely well to the higher weight divisions. More, in Freddie Roach, Manny has the perfect match as his trainer: Roach understands the mental and physical dynamics of boxing as well as any trainer today. In fact, like Pacquiao, Freddie has secured his spot among the best ever. Now, that is a tough combination to compete against in the brutal, unforgiving world of boxing.

Yet, in Miguel Cotto, Pacquiao faces his most dangerous test in the higher weight divisions. It would be easy to focus too much attention on Cotto’s lone loss, when he was TKOed in 11 rounds by Antonio Margarito in July of 2008. But Miguel Cotto brings far, far more into the ring than one defeat – a loss that certainly has an asterisk next to it, due to the loaded hand wraps controversy.

Cotto is, in fact, one of the most intense of predators inside the ring. Except for the loss to Margarito, Miguel has been able to ultimately impose his will on some of the best fighters of his era, including opponents who have speed, superior boxing skills, and serious punching power. Cotto has fast hands, good balance and upper-body movement, can cut off the ring, and the ability to throw his punches in a manner that can offset an opponent’s greater hand speed. And, as Paul Malignaggi has noted, he is the "dirtiest" fighter in the business: he will use his head, shoulders, and elbows as weapons. In his war with Zab Judah, Cotto also displayed a willingness to throw as many hard low blows as needed to impair his foe’s defensive skills.

It is also important to recognize that Miguel Cotto’s best punch is his left hook to the body. It is extremely difficult to fight back if you have had the wind knocked out of you. It’s impossible to remain on your feet, if your opponent has curled your legs underneath you with a shot to the liver. That’s just a reality in the ring, and one that accounts for the two out of three loses on Pacquiao’s record that were by knockout.

Still, although no outcome will surprise me, I tend to favor Manny by TKO somewhere around the 8th or 9th round. The biggest factor, in my opinion, will be his advantage in hand speed. Pacquiao is a crisp puncher at welterweight, and Cotto’s eyebrows will not hold up. The reduction in his field of vision will make it easier for Pacquiao to deliver punches that Miguel does not see coming. And Cotto has a history of being hurt by fast punches that he doesn’t see coming – not only in the Ricardo Torres fight, but more importantly, even against Malignaggi.

If Manny Pacquiao wins, it will set the stage for the only fight in boxing that would be even more anticipated as a "Super Fight" – against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. It seems to me to be one of those fights that boxing demands. Not just the experts, and the fans, but boxing history. While I believe that we will see that fight, likely next June in Yankee Stadium, and it’s build-up will be outrageous, it might not be as exciting a fight as we are going to watch this weekend.

Enjoy the fight. Good luck to both Pacquiao and Cotto, and may the best man win.

[JonLP24]

1. I'm rooting for Manny

so the fight against Floyd can happen. However may the best fighter win.

[H2O Man]

2. A Cotto vs Mayweather

fight would also be interesting. There are a lot of fans who have wanted to see them fight, for years now. In my opinion, based on "styles make fights," Cotto would be relatively easy for Floyd to decision. Of course, I think Floyd would also defeat Manny, though he presents a more difficult task. But I'd enjoy watching either fight.

[H2O Man]

3. It's getting closer ......

This is one of the fights that I'm really looking forward to.

There is an amateur boxing card in Cortland, NY, on Friday night.

[H2O Man]

4. Those who are watching

the HBO 24/7 special saw that Pac Man's trainer, Freddie Roach, was studying films of Cotto's fights. Roach noted that he is not looking for mistakes that Cotto makes, but rather, for habits. This is the essence of a great trainer.

Keep this in mind: after Cotto engages, especially starting in the middle rounds, he has a habit of stepping back and to his right, and lowering his guard at the same time he stands up straight. Now, this is not in and of itself a mistake. But it is a habit, and one that Manny will attempt to exploit. Pacquiao has very good foot speed; he only has to step quickly to his left, slightly forward, to take advantage of something that a slower opponent could not. Watch for it.

[Bluzmann57]

5. Manny Pac!

My wife is a Filipina and she is in love with him, so I'll root for him too. Besides the fact that he's a very good boxer.

[H2O Man]

6. He is definitely

near the peek of one of boxing's most outstanding careers. In one of the few areas where we disagree, friend Teddy Atlas says that Manny cannot seriously be compared to the great Henry Armstrong. While I understand his reasoning, I think it is important to note that Armstrong's most important victories were over great fighters that Pacquiao would have likely defeated, as well. The intense pace that Armstrong set -- meaning the number of fights per year in his prime -- stands out. As does his actually winning 1/2 of the sport's world titles (he didn't "officially" win the middleweight crown, only due to an agreement that if he didn't win by KO, the fight had to be ruled a draw).

It is interesting to consider the outcome of a fight between Hammerin' Hank and Pac Man in their primes. While I'd favor Armstrong, it would have been intense.

[H2O Man]

7. An open invitation

to any DUers in the area: I'll be getting the fight in HD on a 56" screen. Lots of food. Lots of people associated with the sport. A splendid time is guaranteed for all.

[redhot2323]

8. Pacquiao - Cotto 24/7 Episode 1-4 Firepower

Pacquiao - Cotto 24/7 Episode 1-4 Firepower

Episode 1
http://www.megavideo.com/?v=TF20ZSXG

Episode 2
http://www.megavideo.com/?v=SHAMCBPP

Episode 3
http://www.megavideo.com/?v=27E15AM7

Episode 4
http://www.megavideo.com/?v=9FUSPHR9

http://www.megaxyza.com/2009/11/pacquiao-cotto-firepower.html

[JonLP24]

9. Pacquiao wins

I caught a little bit of the fight on the internet then Arizona State is starting to show signs of life so I'm watching them play Oregon now. So anyways I followed the fight on a blog and it says "Pacquiao wins by 12th-round technical knockout"

So what I did see of it was rounds 5-8 and they mentioned Pac knocked down Cotto twice in the third round and the parts I did see Pacquiao was controlling the fight, throwing and landing more punches, so it was no surprise to me that he ended up the winner. The crowd from what I can hear was really into it.

[PDittie]

10. You called it

Still, although no outcome will surprise me, I tend to favor Manny by TKO somewhere around the 8th or 9th round. The biggest factor, in my opinion, will be his advantage in hand speed. Pacquiao is a crisp puncher at welterweight, and Cotto’s eyebrows will not hold up. The reduction in his field of vision will make it easier for Pacquiao to deliver punches that Miguel does not see coming. And Cotto has a history of being hurt by fast punches that he doesn’t see coming – not only in the Ricardo Torres fight, but more importantly, even against Malignaggi.

Only wish the fight had been as good as your prediction.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

11. What a fight! What a fighter!

I keep picking against Pacquiao not because I've doubted his skills but because he keeps shocking me with each fight. He seems to keep outdoing himself and enormously improving from fight to fight. The guy started out as a flyweight for crying out loud. What is this, his 7th belt? It makes me glad to be a fight fan to witness this extraordinary historical career.

Not only did Cotto get physically beaten very badly but this had to really take its toll on his mental state. I think this was a worse loss than his loss to Margarito. Margarito never put Cotto down twice. I'm not sure how Cotto can come back from this loss and ever regain his confidence. He seems to fall off a cliff in the second half of his big fights where he loses strength and the steam on his punches. Also, he cuts too easily. If he goes on to fight again, there's got to be an "uh-oh" moment in his corner if he gets cut. Also, if he's backing up and can't plant his feet and get extension on that left hook, he doesn't seem to have a very good plan B. He managed to squeak out victories against Mosely and Clottey by backing up and throwing jabs in the last rounds of those fights. But that didn't work against the human dynamo that is Manny Pacquiao.

Good call, H20Man. You had more confidence in the little guy's ability than I did. I thought Cotto might be able to hurt Pacquiao to the body with a devastating left hook the way he destroyed another very fast, mobile, and skillful boxer, Carlos Quintana. I just can't come up with the words to describe how impressed I am with Manny.