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The OP in that thread didn't include the number of outs, or the difference between 2nd and 3rd base, and he showed Lidge throwing more sliders, not fewer. Someone downthread there adjusted the numbers for 2 outs with a man on third and showed that Lidge does through fewer sliders in that situation--7% or so fewer. Given that overall Lidge throws sliders 5% more of the time with a runner on third, that's a 12 point swing when adjusted for the tense factors of 2 outs.
But even that calculation doesn't calculate in the tie game and the 9th inning, or the fact that the World Series was on the line, or the fact that Superman was at bat. The bottom line is that this was a rare occurence, and Damon being on third made everyone on the Phillies a lot more nervous, stats or not. And it did cause Lidge to be extremely cautious, and he didn't throw his best pitch to A-Rod. You can't calculate the emotional impact on both teams in that situation.
It was a game changer. Whether it was the deciding factor is unknowable, but it gave the Yankees an edge, and even if it was a slight edge, in that situation you try for that slight edge.
As for whether Damon was genius for doing it, that's debatable. First, even he talked about how the Yankees discussed such a possibility in team meetings, both on offense and defense since they use that shift, too. And there was a risk--if he had stumbled or the 3rd baseman had been a little quicker, he could have been tagged out. So Damon was alert, decisive, and clever, but he also just followed his training.
If anything it proves how important smart coaching and smart game preparation can be.
just my random thoughts. This has been a fun Series so far. Now I'm hoping the Phillies tie it up just so it won't end yet. :)
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