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It's true that Bush's numbers went up in almost every state, but in many of those states, Kerry outpaced him. The key is to compare the rate at which Bush's percentage changed from 2000 with the rate at which Kerry's percentage changed from Gore's in 2000.
Of the states in which there was a Bush shift, the most notable are as follows:
Alabama - shift = 10.78% Tennessee - shift = 10.46% New Jersey - shift = 9.63% Hawaii - shift = 9.59% Oklahoma - shift = 9.28% Rhode Island - shift = 8.41% New York - shift = 7.71% Connecticut - shift = 7.17% Louisiana - shift = 6.93% West Virginia - shift = 6.47% Indiana - shift = 5.27% Florida - shift = 5.25% Georgia - shift = 4.97%
Nearly all of the states with the biggest Bush shifts have one of two things in common: 1) They are very close in proximity to the 9/11 attacks or 2) They are Southern states, where Kerry's appeal (not to mention his campaign) was limited.
There were less pronounced Bush shifts in the following states: Arizona, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, and Utah
The states showing a Kerry shift tend to be more modest. Of these, the notable ones are as follows:
Vermont - shift = 10.33% Montana - shift = 4.54% Alaska - shift = 4.15% DC - shift = 3.88% Oregon - shift = 3.49% Maine - shift = 2.91%
There were also modest Kerry gains in states like New Hampshire and Colorado.
Most of the other states didn't really change that much from 2000 to 2004. These include the all-important battleground states of Ohio, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa.
Non-battleground states that didn't change much are North Dakota, South Dakota, California, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wyoming.
Therefore, given this detailed analysis of the "9/11 states," the "Southern Slam Dunks for Bush," and the states where Kerry gained, it is still perfectly valid to believe there is a pattern of mistabulation and/or fraud with respect to some of the key battleground states.
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