Land Shark is carrying the day. Here's a contribution that is vital to the debate. I offer it for your consideration and as an unsolicited brief in support of Land Shark's overwhelming case against the naysayers:
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edited and reprinted with the permission of the author, TruthIsAllTHE 2004 ELECTION WAS STOLEN. JUST LIKE IN 2000 AND 2002 AND 2005 IN OHIO.
In the Land Shark thread, a critics says:
"So I would argue that the Totality of the Evidence at present adds up to this:
1. The election was corrupt.
2. Democrats were the net losers from the corruption.
3. Voter (and vote) suppression remains a key problem, and may have cost Kerry Ohio.
4. Kerry probably lost the popular vote.
5. But we do not know for sure who actually won either the popular or the electoral vote, and this insupportable (sic.)"
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Note: this was written BEFORE Land Shark's post.
The naysayers continue the process of masking the overwhelming evidence provided by the confirmation of
1) pre-election state polls. Total sample =50 polls*600 = 30,000,
2) pre-election national polls. Total sample = 18 polls *1500 = 27,000,
3) pre-election Bush approval 48.5%. Total = 11 polls*1000 = 11,000
4) post election state exit polls. At 12:22am, Nov.3 (73,600 respondents).
5) post-election national exit polls. At 12:22am Nov.3 (13,047 respondents)
6) massive documented evidence of fraud in OH, FL, NV, NM, NC, MN, NY, etc..
Were ALL these pre and post-election polls BIASED?
They ALL confirm that Bush lost.
What is it about these polls that is so difficult to understand?
The critics confirms the corruption in points 1,2,3. And yet she keeps pushing points 4 and 5.
No, Bush did NOT win the popular vote. The evidence clearly shows that Kerry did - in a near landslide.
Where is the evidence that the exit polls were biased?
Was it shy Bush voters (rBr)?
Debunked in NEP by Mitofksky 43%Bush/37% Gore?
Was it early Kerry voters?
Debunked. View the time line Kerry led at 4pm, 7:33pm, 12:22am
Was it early women voters?
Debunked. 4pm:58%, 7:33pm:54%, 12:22am:54%, 1:25pm:54%
Was it False Gore voter recall?
Ridiculous on its face.
Bush voters recall but Gore voters suffer Alzhemer's?
Was it Bad weather early in the day keeping Bush voters home?
Right.
Was it inexperienced pollsters?
Mitofsky trained them.
Was it the exit poll "cluster effect"?
Ok, go ahead. Play what-if. Do I hear 20%? 30%? 50%
Enter your own "effect" into the Interactive Election Model.
See how many states still fall beyond the MoE for Bush.
The model will calculate the probabilities for you.
Maybe not 1 in 19 trillion (16 exceeding MoE), but still astronomical.
And how does one explain the 30% poll deviations in the latest Ohio election referenda election reform referenda? Do they tell you anything about Ohio? Were these pre-election polls biased, as well? No exit polls were allowed. Critics agree that there was massive fraud in Ohio, but what about all the other states? NM, NV, FL, NC, NY, MN, etc...
Why the allegiance to Mitofsky, come hell or high.
The critics have always agreed with my math, but not my assumptions.
Which assumptions?
Pre-election polls favoring Kerry?
I can prove it. Go to polling report.com
Undecided voters to Kerry by almost 2-1?
New voters to Kerry by 3-2?
Nader voters for Kerry by 4-1?
See all the National Exit Poll time lines.
43/37 Bush/Gore 2000 voter share of the 2004 vote?
We proved that's impossible. Critics agree.
The Final Exit Poll is corrupted, because it was matched to a corrupt vote count. And therefore, all the other Final Exit Poll demographics must be wrong, as well. How can anyone not agree?
The Kerry Gender vote?
From 54% at 12:22am to 51% at 1:25pm. Really?
Party ID?
From 38 Dem/35 Rep to 37/37?
The Census 2004 Vote Survey?
125.7 million voted, or 3.4mm over the recorded vote of 122.3.
The MoE is 0.30%.
Kerry/Bush response alpha ratios?
They decline from 1.50 in High Bush precincts to 1.0 in High Kerry.
USCV proved rBr was garbage using simulation.
I confirmed USCV with the Exit Poll response optimizer.
Bush's 48.50% job approval on election day 2004?
That's the average of 11 INDEPENDENT national polls with a COMBINED 1.0% MoE.
How did Bush overcome this negative view?
Only by cheating.
Ohio Exit poll?
Of 49 precincts, 36 deviated from Kerry to Bush, 10 from Bush to Kerry, 3 unchanged.
State Exit Polls?
Forty-two of 50 deviated to Bush
See the above Ohio Exit Poll. Notice the similarity?
1 in 2 million odds.
Florida voting methods?
Optiscans were obviously rigged for Bush based on voter registration statistics. How come Dem/Rep Restoration was essentially equal in Opti-Scan and DRE counties, and yet there was a 9% divergence in the vote shares?
Sixteen of 50 states deviating beyond the MoE for Bush, none for Kerry?
1 in 19 trillion odds.
All 22 Esteem Time Zone states deviating from Kerry to Bush?
1 in 4 million odds.
Eighty-six of 88 touchscreen incidents of Kerry votes switched to Bush?
Flip a coin 88 times to get 86 heads.
Do the math.
THOSE ARE FACTS, NOT ASSUMPTIONS.
Take a look at the graph below. It clearly evidence shows the Final Exit Poll fraud which was perpetrated on the public - and critics have never been able to explain over the last 6 months.
At least the critics now says that Kerry "probably" lost the popular vote. A few months ago, she said that her "evidence" convinced her that Bush won.
That's progress.
Once again, I ask the obvious question:
If Kerry did win the popular vote (which critics agrees is possible) doesn't that mean that the exit polls (state and national) were therefore close to the truth? That eliminates, of course, the Final Exit Poll, which we know HAS to be wrong, based on that IMPOSSIBLE 43%/37% Bush/Gore 2000 voter share of the total 2004 vote.
Once again, I challenge the critics (and others) to a real-time debate using the Interactive Election model. Let's have a rematch of the "Game".
Can anyone come up with one plausible Bush win scenario?
And if they think they have one, will they defend their assumptions?
I doubt it.
Note to Land Shark:
The TOTALITY of the polling data is some of the BEST EVIDENCE for the prosecution. The NUMBERS have been silently screaming for a year.
The TOTALITY of the data provides conclusive circumstantial evidence. It is sufficient and overwhelming "proof" necessary to convince an unbiased court of public opinion.
DO YOU HAVE EXCEL? IF SO, TRY...
THE INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/Intera...Downloads in a minute
Easy to use (3 inputs)
Press F9 to run 200 simulations of pre-election/exit polls
(51 State & 18 National)
Here's a challenge:
Using the National Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" demographic, try to come up with just ONE plausible scenario of a Bush win.
It's on the "NationalExit" sheet (row 54)
If you think you have one, let us know on PI.
The naysayers will love you for it.
Lots of luck trying.