David Dill on Oberman says the exit poll company should

[pinkpops]

"release their raw data"
To contact Exit Polls From Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International:

[e-mail]


More on David Dill:

http://www.govtech.net/?pg=news/news&docid=2003.01.31-39430

[nashville_brook]

1. that slapped me in the face

why can't we just look at the vote! that's actually supposed to be open and free.

[shelley806]

13. The unaltered exit polls are not free...eom

[scotjohn]

2. Amen! And about E/M's "changing the numbers" justification:

I've read (can't recall where, sorry) that when Edison/Mitofsky was asked about the discrepancy between their early poll numbers and the final counts, E/M claimed that they'd "over-weighted for African American voters" in their early exit polls, and that they'd corrected that bias in their (very different) final results.

Let's just say for a moment that they did over-weight their sample, so that it represented a higher proportion of black voters than had actually voted...

How exactly would they know that? When vote totals are reported, they're not broken down by the race of the voters, are they? So what exactly are they comparing their exit poll sample to in order to make this decision?

I'm not a polling expert, but I see only one basis for E/M to claim there were too many African Americans in their exit poll sample: "gosh, those election results show more Republican votes than our poll says, why don't we weight the black voters less to reduce this disparity?"

In other words, cooking the books to get the result you want.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi scotjohn!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[scotjohn]

17. Thanks!

Glad to find you all here, don't know how I overlooked this place for so long...

[CAcyclist]

14. That's the question I 've been asking for days!

That's my conclusion as well

[Magic_Cookie]

3. What I heard

earlier from some expert at a meeting who was reporting about the election (his particular area was on the African-American turnout), was that due to the fact that companies paid millions of dollars for the data, it was not available to the general public for a set period of time. Therefore his report wouldn't be accurate until then *blah blah blah*
I have no idea the time frame though, he didn't mention that.

[WhoWantsToBeOccupied]

4. I sent plea to "Please release your data"

Democracy demands fair elections.

Given widespread circumstantial evidence of possible fraud, discrepancies between your early exit poll figures (and possibly late exit poll figures too) and "official" counts, and the fact that multiple exit polls were replaced this year with one pooled exit poll (which could well have facilitated fraud because only one set of exit poll numbers must be discredited), the nation needs whatever data you possess to help assess whether concerns are warranted or not.

I do not believe sufficient evidence yet exists to prove or disprove fraud, but I am deeply troubled by many strange patterns and stories I have seen. And, given the proven insecurities in voting systems in widespread use, I tend to trust the exit polls MORE than the official vote tallies. If your raw exit poll data is in line with elections, I would be greatly relieved. I suspect and fear, however, that the reality is otherwise. If so, this nation must get to the bottom of any discrepancies.

Thank you in advance for helping protect our democracy (little "d," not big "D").

Sincerely,

James Lavin
Stamford, CT

[mcg]

5. privitization = recipe for fraud

That's why the republicans want to 'privitize' everything, so they can cheat and steal even more.

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. Exactly.

------------------------------------------------------
Fight the fraud; fund the recount!
http://timeforachange.bluelemur.com/electionreform.htm

[althecat]

6. Excellent... David Dill joins the debate

Jonathan Simon works with Dill...

[Eloriel]

7. Really good article touching on exit poll validity

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10385

[hedda_foil]

10. Thanks, El. It's from AAR's founder, Shelly Drobny.

Time to start working my contacts here in Chicago to get his and his wife's phone number. We need them to contribute to http://www.helpamericarecount.org.

[nashville_brook]

8. Given Dill's authority status on vote tampering

maybe he was creating a straw man out of the exit polls

[althecat]

11. Kick... this is important...

[shelley806]

15. Two very good DU threads on exit poll analysis:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=37033

Mathematical Proof That Reported TV Network Exit Polling Data is Fraudulent

In this post I am going to prove via simple mathematics that the "reported" TV Network exit polling data is not based upon the actual exit poll samples from the 4th/final "real" exit polls that were conducted around 6-7pm. This divergence from the original exit polling data helps explain why last week's Presidential Election results in the states of Ohio and Florida are based on fraudulent manipulation of the "network's final exit poll" data in an effort to reflect what is obviously "mistabulated" machine votes.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x36314

EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":

I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 states—NJ,NY,NC,VA—I did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

[Roger_Otip]

18. a very good pdf on exit polls

worth downloading:
http://www.legjoints.com/AmericanElectionFraud/the-unexplained-exit.pdf

[shelley806]

20. Thank you very much...I did download it and have just started

reading it. It proposes to answer the Red Shift for Bush. I see that you can't post yet, but after studying this report, I'll post it for you as a separate thread, unless you've seen it already posted here.

Let me know, and thank you again. We cannot ignore the red shift for Bush, and the fact that most if not all of the 'irregularities' to date, have favored Bush. When all such factors are considered together, and not separately, I think that we will be looking at fraud without question, given the odds.

[shelley806]

16. kick

[melwoods]

19. kick

:)

[Hobbes199]

21. E/M or A/P

I figured it was the Associated Press that interprets the data; Edison and Mitofsky would just provide the data with the demographics?

Of course either way this means NEXT time we'll have to be watching for corruption on the polling side, or else this little hole will be filled.

[jsamuel]

22. Sent