WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen...

[TruthIsAll]

E_M has told is where the election was stolen...

Of the 4.10 million votes which red-shifted from Kerry to
Bush, 3.45 million were in two of the five partisanship
groupings:

Moderate Bush: 1.23 million
Non-partisan : 2.22 million

Only 0.66 million votes were lost in High Bush and moderate
Kerry precincts. High Kerry precincts were virtually
fraud-free.

The optimizer tells us that Kerry won the election by 5.22
million votes. This result is consistent with E-M aggregate
data and the recorded Bush/Kerry 2-party vote, but only after
adjusting alpha from 1.12 to 1.15 in order to satisfy ALL
precinct WPE, partisanship and total exit poll response
constraints:

Kerry: 63.11 million 
Bush: 57.89

This result falls out of the model and is consistent with all
E-M aggregate data and the recorded Bush/Kerry 2-party vote
 

The recorded vote:
Bush 61.99 million
Kerry 59.01


Note the following:

1. E-M (WPE) cannot reproduce the Bush 51.23% (2-party) vote,
given the overall R=53% response rate, alpha = 1.12 (56
Kerry/50 Bush) and the 1250 precinct partisanship aggregate
weightings. 

2. There is NO feasible solution which satisfies precinct
WPE's, weighted average alpha (1.12) and weighted response
rate (53%) constraints.

3. The Minimum alpha required is an implausible 1.15 (57.5/50)

4. The Minimum High Bush precinct alpha is an implausible 1.40
(70/50).

5. High and moderate Kerry precinct alpha = 1.066 (53.5/50) 

6. High and moderate Bush precinct alpha = 1.17. Non-partisan
precinct alpha is the same 1.17.

7. Kerry won exit poll with 52.16%, a 63.1- 57.9mm vote
margin.

8. Bush needed to win 54.9% of the 47% who refused to be
polled, in order to achieve his 51.23% vote.

9. The results match E-M partisanship WPE's to within .01%.

10. The results are based on the limited data provided by E-M.
No other input assumptions were used.

11. Assuming a 1.0% MoE, the odds are 1 in 62,956,149,427
that Bush would go from 47.84% in the poll to 51.23% in the
vote.

**************************************

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/19/05 5:23 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive
the  final vote using aggregate exit poll response
data.							
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints: 					
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average 					
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote 				
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average 					
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)													

	VOTE 	POLL	DEV
Kerry 48.77%	52.16%	-3.39%				
Bush	51.23%	47.84%	3.39%				
Actual Bush	51.23%						
	
Probability: 1 in	62,956,149,427	
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.150						

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90		
Max	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Min	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Max	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
							
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP.	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.0%
Dev	-2.0%	5.8%	-4.5%	-4.7%	10.0%		0.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.150
Dev	21.7%	-0.4%	2.1%	-4.0%	-13.4%		0.0%
ln (A)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.1398

VOTES							
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
POLL 							
Kerry	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
							
WPE	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.15
ln(a)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.14
AvgDev	22%	0%	2%	-4%	-13%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	244	262	80	57		663
Pct	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	6	110	139	47	44		345
Pct	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	14	134	123	32	13		317
Pct	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	171	278	85	33		587
Pct	49.0%	41.2%	51.5%	51.7%	37.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	4	64	124	46	26		264
Pct	19.8%	37.5%	44.7%	53.8%	77.3%		45.09%
Bush	16	107	154	39	8		323
Pct	80.2%	62.5%	55.3%	46.2%	22.7%		54.91%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	10	174	263	93	69		610
Pct	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	30	241	277	72	21		640
Pct	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	16.83	25.47	9.04	6.71		59.01
Bush	2.90	23.35	26.80	6.93	2.00		61.99
Diff	-1.94	-6.52	-1.34	2.10	4.71		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.16	18.05	27.69	9.51	6.70		63.11
Bush	2.71	22.12	24.58	6.46	2.01		57.89
Diff	-1.55	-4.07	3.11	3.05	4.68		5.22
							
VOTE DEVIATION							
Kerry 	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01		-4.10
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-50.0%	-16.2%	-2.6%	13.2%	54.1%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-40.0%	-10.1%	5.9%	19.1%	53.8%		4.31%
Diff	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%

[kster]

1. kick.nt

[Peace Patriot]

2. To state this a little differently--correct me if I'm wrong--

what you are saying is that the two places where the most votes were stolen from Kerry (and either disappeared or given to Bush) are the precincts with a moderate-sized Republican majority in voter registration ("moderate Bush" precincts), and the precincts with an evenly balanced voter registration (Dem vs Repub) ("non-partisan" precincts).

Just to be clear, is the "High Bush," "High Kerry," etc. precinct characterization based on voter registration or on reported vote totals?

If based on reported vote, then my restatement would read:

The two places where the most votes were stolen from Kerry (and either disappeared or given to Bush) are the precincts where a moderate-sized majority voted for Bush ("moderate Bush" precincts), and the precincts with an evenly balanced vote (Bush vs Kerry) ("non-partisan" precincts).

In either case, this is a peculiar finding. It's counter-intuitive at first glance--except that the election fraudsters, in order to FIND enough votes to make a difference, would, of course, have to mine precincts where there was a significant Kerry vote. They may have been debarred from messing too much with Kerry votes in "High Kerry" precincts because it would have been too noticeable and/or because election officials would tend to be Democrats (or Democrats would have more monitoring power in those precincts). "High Bush" precincts--although easy to steal votes in--wouldn't have been worth it. "Moderate Bush" would give them access, low vigilance by officials, and substantial Kerry votes to steal. Those precincts might also be where more Republicans voted for Kerry (Republican votes for Kerry being the easiest votes for Bush fraudsters to flip over).

But the UC Berkeley study showed a huge theft by Bushites in the three main Florida Democratic counties--Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. (130,000 to 260,000 phantom votes for Bush, in electronic vs. other methods of voting.)

Generally your finding points to theft from Republicans voting for Kerry (I think).

I wonder how this would stack up against voting systems by precinct--although the overall plan may have involved the central tabulators, and someone picking and choosing which precincts to steal from, at a higher level than the precinct.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Response

You:
Just to be clear, is the "High Bush," "High Kerry," etc. precinct characterization based on voter registration or on reported vote totals?

Me:
These were the precinct partisanship groupings designated by E-M for the Exit poll. I would assume the design was based on a combination of registration and prior voting stats.

The bulk of the moderate Kerry precinctcs may very well have been in FL and OH.

Your interpretation of the analysis seems right to me.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Adjust precinct vote ranges. Minimum feasible alpha = 1.155

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/23/05 6:33 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive
the recorded vote split (51.23 Bush/48.77 Kerry) using
aggregate exit poll response data for 5 quintile (20%)
partisanship ranges.
						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:      
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average  
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote           				
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average  					
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							
							
	VOTE 	POLL	DEV	Partisan Alpha			
Kerry 48.77%	52.16%	-3.39%	1.062			
Bush	51.23%	47.84%	3.39%	1.185			

Target:
Bush actual	51.23%				
					
Probability:					
Bush vote gain	0.00%				
 1 in	62,956,149,427				
Kerry > 50% vote	100.0%				
 1 in	1				
					
WEIGHTED AVERAGE					
Response 	53.0%				
Alpha (K/B)	1.155				
					
					
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS					
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry		
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50		
Max	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
Diff	4.31%	-2.46%	-6.77%		5.22	-2.98	-8.20
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP.	49.5%	62.7%	47.2%	42.2%	64.7%		53.0%
Dev	-3.5%	9.7%	-5.8%	-10.8%	11.7%		0.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.521	1.153	1.173	1.098	0.996		1.155
Dev	31.7%	-0.2%	1.6%	-4.9%	-13.7%		0.0%
ln (A)	0.419	0.142	0.160	0.093	-0.004		0.144

VOTES							
Kerry	19.2%	39.9%	49.0%	60.3%	80.3%		48.77%
Bush	80.8%	60.1%	51.0%	39.7%	19.7%		51.23%
							
POLL 							
Kerry	24.2%	42.9%	53.3%	63.2%	80.1%		52.16%
Bush	75.8%	57.1%	46.7%	36.8%	19.9%		47.84%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	19.2%	39.9%	49.0%	60.3%	80.3%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	1.52	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.16
ln(a)	0.42	0.14	0.16	0.09	0.00		0.14
AvgDev	32%	0%	2%	-5%	-14%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	260	255	70	58		663
Pct	49.5%	62.7%	47.2%	42.2%	64.7%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	112	136	44	47		343
Pct	24.2%	42.9%	53.3%	63.2%	80.1%		52.16%
Bush	15	148	119	26	12		320
Pct	75.8%	57.1%	46.7%	36.8%	19.9%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	155	285	95	32		587
Pct	50.5%	37.3%	52.8%	57.8%	35.3%		47.00%
							
Kerry	3	54	129	55	26		267
Pct	14.3%	34.8%	45.2%	58.1%	80.6%		45.01%
Bush	17	101	156	40	6		321
Pct	85.7%	65.2%	54.8%	41.9%	19.4%		54.99%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	8	166	265	99	72		610
Pct	19.2%	39.9%	49.0%	60.3%	80.3%		48.77%
Bush	32	249	275	66	18		640
Pct	80.8%	60.1%	51.0%	39.7%	19.7%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.74	16.03	25.62	9.63	7.00		59.01
Bush	3.13	24.15	26.66	6.34	1.72		61.99
Diff	-2.38	-8.12	-1.04	3.29	5.28		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.94	17.25	27.84	10.10	6.98		63.11
Bush	2.93	22.92	24.43	5.87	1.73		57.89
Diff	-2.00	-5.67	3.40	4.23	5.25		5.22
							
VOTE DEVIATION							
Kerry 	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01		-4.10
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-61.6%	-20.2%	-2.0%	20.6%	60.6%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-51.6%	-14.1%	6.5%	26.5%	60.3%		4.31%
Diff	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%

[tommcintyre]

5. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t