Confounding the Febble function: a solution to the RbR riddle.

[TruthIsAll]

Given the following facts:

A) The average Party ID split in the 1992-2000 elections was:
39% Dem/ 35% Repub/ 26% Independent.

B) M-E claims that there was a 6% differential response between aggressive Democrats (56%) and shy Republicans (50%),

Therefore, we can now calculate the two input parameters of the TIA confounding function:

The Democratic confound parameter:
DC = (39-35)/35 = 4/35 = 11.42%

The Republican confound parameter:
RC = (56-50)/50 = 6/50 = 12.00%

Therefore, solving for the TIA confound:
TIAC = RC - DC = 0.58%, well within the Margin of Error.

We have just solved the riddle of the Reluctant bush Responder.

[TruthIsAll]

1. We can also calculate the ratios this way...

DC= 39/(39+35) =52.70%
RC= 56/(50+56) =52.83%

A 0.13% difference.

So close.
Must be a coincidence.

Like the coincidence that the state exit polls matched the national to with 0.06%

[TruthIsAll]

2. Thanks, Kiwi-Expat: An interesting study of reluctant respondents.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=89

"Critics of media polls have argued that surveys overstate support for Democratic candidates and underestimate conservative opinions -- possibly because conservatives are more likely to refuse to participate in polls.(7)

But a NUMBER of measures give NO indication that reluctant respondents are significantly more conservative than amenable respondents. Both groups of respondents include COMPARABLE percentages of Democrats and Republicans, and of self-described liberals and conservatives. Questions on a RANGE of political values also revealed NO differences between amenable and reluctant respondents."

[davidgmills]

3. You lost me here: Way over my head TIA

See my post on 13,000 for things that might bring it down to my level.

[TruthIsAll]

4. There was no difference when the study was done.

But Peace Patriot has described a viable, logical explanation as to why Repubs who voted for Kerry were reluctant.

The point is, there has never been a Reluctant Responder deviation between Dems and Repubs - but if there was one in 2004, it was as described by Peace Patriot. It was NOT because Repubs were shy or Dems are aggressive. We know it's just the other way around.

Just recall the 2000 GOP Dade recount riot.

[davidgmills]

5. What about an analysis of how many men it would take

Or rbr responders to get gWB be the winner?

Or what about caucasians vs minorities?

Or what about age?

[Moderator]

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