Peace Patriot explains convincingly why if there was a
Reluctant Republican Responder, he or she was most likely a
Kerry voter (rRrK). That makes a lot of sense, intuitively and
mathematically. We should adjust the exit poll to account for
that famous 56-50% differential response.
If one analyzes the 13047 Exit Poll (the Final 13660 has been
proven IMPOSSIBLE), one quickly sees that it does not reflect
powerful anecdotal evidence that significantly more
Republicans voted for Kerry than Democrats voted for Bush.
Peace Patriot has just told us why.
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This is the Exit Poll of 13047 respondents (w/o rRrK)
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Democrat 38% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Republican 35% 92% 7% 1% 100.0%
Independent 27% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 47.77% 50.69% 1.54% 100.0%
122.26 58.40 61.97 1.88
The odds that Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%:
1 in 303 million!
Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
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Adjusting the calculation to assume that 3% rRrK (and 10% of
all Republicans) voted for Kerry, with a corresponding
increase in Republican Party ID to 36%):
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Democrat 38% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Republican 36% 89% 10% 1% 100.0%
Independent 26% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 47.16% 51.32% 1.52% 100.0%
122.26 57.66 62.74 1.86
Odds: 1 in 761 billion!
Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4716,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
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EVEN IF WE ASSUME A 36 DEM/38 REPUB MIX, KERRY STILL WINS BY
OVER 1 MILLION VOTES!
PARTY ID Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Democrat 36% 9% 90% 1% 100.0%
Republican 38% 89% 10% 1% 100.0%
Independent 26% 45% 52% 3% 100.0%
100% 48.76% 49.72% 1.52% 100.0%
122.26 59.61 60.79 1.86
Odds: 1 in 17 thousand!