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Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:50 AM by TruthIsAll
At 12:22am on Nov 3, Simon downloaded exit poll data for 47 states. At the 95% confidence level, the probability of exceeding the MOE in any state is 2.5% or 1 in 40 (one tail of the Normal Distribution).
Sixteen (16) out of the 47 states deviated beyond the MoE from the Exit Poll to the final vote, all to Bush.
The probability that at least N=16 states out of the 47 exceed the MoE is 1.754152E-14 or 1 in 57,007,590,219,880
Prob =1 - BINOMDIST(15,47,.025,TRUE)
N Probability 1 in 1 6.957596E-01 1 2 3.291108E-01 3 3 1.128821E-01 9 4 2.971719E-02 34 5 6.260422E-03 160 6 1.087904E-03 919 7 1.595036E-04 6,269 8 2.007344E-05 49,817 9 2.197779E-06 455,005 10 2.115951E-07 4,726,008 11 1.806943E-08 55,342,090 12 1.378407E-09 725,475,161 13 9.448209E-11 10,584,016,637 14 5.848211E-12 170,992,468,197 15 3.288481E-13 3,040,918,046,840 16 1.754152E-14 57,007,590,219,880
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