Kerry won, and he won just the way we expected him to.
What follows is NOT new information, but I just worked my own way through the breakdowns in TIA's post of an easy-to-read pdf file of the 11/2/04, 7:33 pm data. These were posted in another of his threads here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287#359351Thread title:
U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm,11/02/04: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"There were many breakouts, but these were the ones that caught my eye. Look them over and think about them, if like me you haven't done it before:
In each group of five numbers, the first number is the PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL VOTES ANALYZED, the second is % votes for KERRY, the third is % votes for BUSH, and the fourth is % votes for NADER. (TIA thinks the fifth number, labeled “Rep2000," is probably the difference in % Bush votes compared to 2000) Total votes: 51% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader. Females were pro-Kerry (9% margin) while males were more narrowly pro-Bush (4% margin)
Number of Interviews - 11,027
Vote Estimate Not for On-Air Use
100 51 48 1 -
Are you: (n=10,978)
Male 46 47 51 1 -2
Female 54 54 45 1 2
Kerry won STRONGLY among
first-time voters (13% margin), who represented 11% of the total votes. In this analysis, Kerry also won among the respondents who had voted before (2% margin)
Is this the first time you have ever voted? (n=5,430)
Yes 11 56 43 - 0
No 89 50 48 1 0
Self-described
independents made up 26% of total and went for Kerry (7% margin). There were slightly more Dems than Repubs (38% vs 36%) and both went strongly for their party’s candidate.
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:(n=10,553)
Democrat 38 90 9 1 -2
Republican 36 7 92 0 1
Independent or something else 26 52 45 2 -2
People
deciding on their choice in the last month (15% of total) went more for Kerry. People who decided before that (79%) were evenly divided, 50/50.
When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? (n=6,856)
Just today 6 53 40 5 -
In the last three days 3 53 41 4 -
Sometime last week 2 48 51 1 -
During the last month 10 60 38 1 -
Before that 79 50 50 0 –
Here is the breakdown by
four sections of the country. Kerry won by 18% margin in the East and by an 8% margin in the West; Bush won by a 1% margin in the Midwest, and Bush won by a 9% margin in the South.
National Region (n=11,027)
East 22 58 40 1 1
Midwest 25 50 49 1 0
South 31 45 54 1 -1
West 21 53 45 1 -1
Kerry won by a 19% margins in
larger cities (pop. over 50,000) and by a 1% margin in
suburbs; Bush won by an 8% margin in
small cities and rural populations.
Population of area, three categories (n=9,027)
City over 50 thousand 30 59 40 1 5
Suburbs 45 50 49 1 0
Small city and Rural 24 45 53 1 -6