There weren't three exit polls, two preliminary and a final.
This was a Three Act Tragedy that could have been written by
Shakespeare. Unfortunately, there is not one Bard among the
MSM.
In this case, truth is stranger than any fiction the Bard
could ever come up with - even if he had a personal computer.
But then again, he never googled, did he?
Act I
7:38pm
11027 respondents participated.
Scene I
A majority (54%) of the voters were women.
Th gender mix stayed constant throughout the vote.
Kerry, like Gore and Clinton before him, is winning the female
vote by a solid 54-45%. It looks like he's going to win by
almost 4 million votes.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 51% 47% 2%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 47.76% 50.78% 1.46%
122.26 58.39 62.08 1.78
Scene II
The Party mix is 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26%
Independents. Since Gore and Clinton each had a 39/35 Party Id
edge, Kerry is not doing quite as well in this category. But
the Independents are clearly in Kerry's column, 52%-45%. Well,
maybe Kerry wins by 3.5 million.
PARTY ID
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1%
Rep 36% 92% 7% 1%
Ind 26% 45% 52% 3%
100% 48.24% 50.24% 1.52%
122.26 58.98 61.42 1.86
Scene III
New players are voting big-time for Kerry, by a 3-2 margin.
Apparently, 100% of Bush 2000 voters are turning out. Since
122.26 million voted in 2004, for Bush 2000 voters to comprise
41% of 122.26 million, then 50.12 million of them had to turn
out this time. Bush had 50.456 million votes in 2000, so it
appears that just 300,000 of those voters passed on, defying
the U.S. annual 0.87% death rate.
But Kerry is winning anyway. Now it looks like 4.5 million
votes.
VOTED 2000
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 39% 59% 2%
Gore 38% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 1%
Dem 4% 13% 65% 22%
100% 47.09% 50.90% 2.01%
122.26 57.57 62.23 2.46
ACT II
12:22am
13047 respondents
The cast grows by 2020.
Scene I
But just like the first 11027, they still love Kerry. He's
holding his solid lead among the women who still comprise 54%
of the vote. He's up by 3.1 million.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 52% 47% 1%
F 54% 45% 54% 1%
100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
122.26 58.95 62.08 1.22
Scene II
Kerry is widening his Party Id lead slightly to 38/35%. It
looks like he's converging on the Clinton/Gore 39/35% mix. And
he's holding his lead among independents. But when you think
about it, that's to be expected, since only 2020 additional
respondents are added to the original 11027. The trend has
already been established. He's clearly a winner by around 3.6
million.
PARTY ID
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1%
Rep 35% 92% 7% 1%
Ind 27% 45% 52% 3%
100% 47.77% 50.69% 1.54%
122.26 58.40 61.97 1.88
Scene III
Kerry is even creeping up on Bush in the Voted 2000 category,
as 39% of Gore 2000 voters have turned out. Kerry's share of
new voters has dropped slightly from a 20% margin to 16%. But
it's still a very significant lead. After all, Gore won the
popular vote in 2000 and Kerry is winning a clear majority of
new voters. Would you believe a 4.2 million win?
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 41% 57% 2%
Gore 39% 8% 91% 1%
Bush 41% 90% 9% 1%
Other 3% 13% 65% 22%
100% 47.38% 50.82% 1.80%
122.26 57.93 62.13 2.20
The fat lady is getting ready to sing. The final 613 players
are about to enter the stage.
ACT III
2:05 pm
13660 respondents
Scene I
Something is going terribly wrong! The women, as strong a
voting bloc as ever, have decided to desert Kerry, despite
supporting Clinton, Gore and Kerry up until this final, short
act. Kerry now has just a three point edge in this extremely
important voter bloc. That's down from 9%. And the males are
moving strongly to Bush. He has an 11% lead in that group. It
looks like Bush has a 4 million vote mandate.
Gender
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
M 46% 55% 44% 1%
F 54% 48% 51% 1%
100% 51.22% 47.78% 1.00%
122.26 62.62 58.42 1.22
Scene II
It looks like the Democrats are now saying the hell with it
all. These last 660 respondents must really be fuming. Kerry
has lost the Party ID edge that he had every right to believe
was his up until just a few hours ago. What did he do to anger
these last few Democrats? Even the Independents are deserting
him. His 7% margin is down to 1%. That Bush mandate is still
solid: 3.75 million.
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 37% 11% 89% 0%
Rep 37% 93% 6% 1%
Ind 26% 48% 49% 3%
100% 50.96% 47.89% 1.15%
122.26 62.30 58.55 1.41
Scene III
And finally, the nail in the coffin...is pulled away. The Bush
2000 voters who died, all 1.75 million of them, have risen
from the grave to keep Bush in the White House. The new voters
sense the debacle unfolding; Kerry is losing them as well. His
lead is down to just 54% of new voters. Even Gore 2000 voters
are saying the hell with Kerry, we don't care if Bush stole it
from us in 2000, he stole it fair and square. Now 10% of the
Gore voters, fully 5 million of them, are voting for Bush.
It's Bush by a little over 3 million votes, some of them
reincarnated, but those votes count nevertheless..
The Fat Lady has indeed sung a sad dirge after taking time off
from her job at Diebold.
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 37% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 43% 91% 9% 0%
Other 3% 21% 71% 8%
100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.41%
122.26 62.49 59.27 0.50
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