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YBR31 Donating Member (83 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 01:34 PM
Original message
Dr. Freeman has updated his paper on exit pollling
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. Interesting.
National Election Pool pollsters have acknowledged that their polls deviate from official totals by 1.9% nationwide (a 3.8% shift from Kerry to Bush) and intimated that this deviation was caused by disproportionate numbers of Bush voters refusing to participate in the polls. Analysis of the available data and theory, however, strongly suggests that at least part of the discrepancy is due to miscount. Moreover, a review of 2004 election processes suggests little reason for confidence that the count reflects either the intent of the electorate or the way that the votes were cast.
I expect this claim will meet with incredulity and anger. The idea of mass-scale electoral fraud in a US Presidential election may be difficult to fathom - or to stomach.
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SueZhope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Very Interesting Indeed
The idea of mass-scale electoral fraud in a US Presidential election may be difficult to fathom - or to stomach.

This part says it all.....Sadly so many people just cant even handle it being a possibility
so they just poo poo the idea before they even learn about.

It reminds of the people who find out someone they trusted turns out to be a
child molester, they just cant cope with the reality of something so scary.

Election stealing....nope not here,thats in someone else's country not my USA
land of the free....
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ColoradoDemocrat Donating Member (28 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
28. I was just saying the same thing!
I was also wondering if our confronting the horrible circumstances of the deep south before the civil rights movement was just so overwhelming to us as a nation that we are trying to let this one seep into our awareness-or to deny it overall.

I also think our fellow citizens are succumbing to COVERT oppression.
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Eye_on_prize Donating Member (205 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
37. Denial can appear to be such a powerful force, until *poof* it is de-fange
dispelled and vaporized by a strong dose of truth applied at the right time (Jan 6th), in the right way (with strong evidence and courage) like a surgeon, or a powerful moment in personal counseling. Democracy in action.
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deacon2 Donating Member (396 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
50. I think it also scares many to extrapolate
Once you get your head around the possibility (truth?) of election fraud, you then have to ask yourself "what next?" Which leads to mental scenes of mass protest, tear gas, bloodied skulls and finally folks shooting at each other in the A & P parking lot ala' Chechnya. I'm willing to go there mentally, but I have to take a deep breath before I answer if I'm willing to go there in reality... Or maybe I'm just being dramatic. Sure hope so.
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corbett Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. He Needs Virginia Numbers To Complete His Work
I always have believed that Kerry won Virginia. I base that belief on three factors:

1) The number of federal employees who fall into the Anybody-But-Bush category of voters;

2) Kerry's strong victory in Maryland; and

3) Kerry's landslide victory in the District Of Columbia.

Please help Dr. Freeman!

Kick For Kerry!
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. I think so, too.
I honestly believe that Virginia went blue.

I have family there and I know of NO ONE who lives there who was going to vote for Bush.

I'm sure some people in the Shenendoah Valley would - they're very rural, but not so in Roanoake or Richmond or the Virginia outskirts of D.C. - those are the population centers and they were for Kerry.
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Scout1071 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. I very clearly remember that during election night as the results began
to come in that on MSNBC, I believe it was Tim Russert said that the early results showed Kerry winning VA and if that happened, that was going to be very bad news for * because VA was considered so strong for * because of military and govt ties in the area.

I've brought this up a few times in other threads, but I really believe that somebody needs to take a hard look at Missouri. I live in KC and this city was overwhelmingly Kerry. St. Louis went to Kerry. Sorry, but there is no way those mid-Missouri small towns swung it to * - there simply aren't enough people and mid-MO was split vote anyway. So, the two most populous cities go to Kerry and the rest of the state splits. What gives? Watching the early returns that night in a local pub, loud cheers went out in the bar when the early returns showed Kerry winning MO because both campaigns had conceeded that the state would go to *. But that didn't freakin' happen.

Also, I know a couple of people who registered in public libraries, but were not on the rolls when they showed up to vote. Does anyone know if Nathan Sprouls & Assoc "registered" voters in MO like NV, OR, AZ, OH and NM? Why aren't we talking about them anymore in relation to voter suppression? Their temp workers went on television to say they were told not to sign-up Dems, but if they insisted on registering, then their registration forms were systematically shredded rather than filed. This is what I believe happened to my friends.
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NVMojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #22
33. yes, Sproul was in Nevada and caused trouble in Nevada ...


2 local Democrats say GOP group thwarted their opportunity to vote

Susan Voyles
RENO GAZETTE-JOURNAL
10/22/2004 01:11 pm


Eric Amberson and his wife, Traci, won’t be voting Nov. 2 in Sparks because of a Republican-sponsored voter registration drive that failed to turn in the Democratic forms.

They are the first in Washoe County to complain about the Voter Outreach of America registration drive that is being investigated by Nevada and Oregon officials for voter fraud and for destroying forms from Democrats.

“It’s not fair,” Eric Amberson said. “How many thousands of others won’t have their voices heard because some company decided we don’t count?”

The couple registered to vote Oct. 2 with a canvasser outside the Wal-Mart store on Kietzke Lane.

The National Republican Committee hired Sproul & Associates, of Phoenix, Ariz., to register voters in Clark and Washoe counties under the Voter Outreach of America name.

more...

http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html/2004/10/21/83383.php?sp1=rgj&sp2=News&sp3=Local+News&sp5=RGJ.com&sp6=news&sp7=local_news
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NVMojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. ever read this about Sproul??? The theft of the election had many culprits
Thursday, October 28, 2004
GOP operative under fire over voter-registration tactics
BETH DeFALCO, Associated Press Writer

Thursday, October 28, 2004

GOP operative Nathan Sproul makes no apologies for sending his canvassers out to register Republicans, not Democrats, in battleground states. And if powerful Democrats like Ted Kennedy are demanding the Justice Department investigate him, well, he considers that a badge of honor.

"I take great pride in the fact that the Democrats are having hysterical fits about how well we did our job," Sproul said.

Sproul and his Chandler, Ariz.-based political consulting firm, Sproul & Associates, have come under fire in recent weeks, accused of deceiving would-be voters and destroying Democratic voter registration cards.

Some of his former canvassers have come forward in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Oregon, alleging they were told to register only Republicans and to "walk away" from people who said they intended to vote for John Kerry. Some said that completed Democratic registration forms had been thrown out or ripped up.

Sproul -- a former Christian Coalition activist and one-time executive director of the Arizona GOP with a reputation among Republicans as someone who gets things done -- has denied any wrongdoing.

more...


http://opp-researcher.blogspot.com/2004_10_01_opp-researcher_archive.html
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Scout1071 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. I remember all of this very clearly. My question is are we getting
affidavits from these people? Is anybody investigating them for illegal activities? Can we tie them into people being turned away at the polls in swing states?
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:16 PM
Response to Original message
4. He asks for VA exit poll data -- and pdf says NOT TO CIRCULATE
Very interesting and important, but there is a prominent paragraph on the first page that says it is a draft and should not be circulated without permission. If you have his permission, it would be good to note that. If you don't it should be requested. He might like to have the article posted for comments here, but he should be asked first.

On the page with the link to the pdf of the article, Dr. Freeman asks for the Virginia exit poll data, which he says is all he lacks for the complete set. Didn't a New Zealand group already post all the states' data? I would have to dig to find the URL for that, but I recall this.

Dr. Freeman's email address is on the first page of the pdf article. If someone has the VA data, they should send them to him.

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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
12. I saw that, but wondered why it was posted
on the Internet if he didn't want widescale vetting. I mean, that's like posting a secret on a billboard.

Odd.
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liam97 Donating Member (406 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Not odd at all
It is very usual for academics to release "draft" version for comments with the usual qualifiers he has provided. It means it is not ready for publication. The idea is comments will be offered, and once they are integrated a final version will be sent for publication.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. I guess this one is just different
Most academic papers probably aren't of interest to as many people as this report is and, therefore, aren't viewed by too many more people than the viewership for which the paper was intended.
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SharonRB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
26. As far as I know,
the New Zealand site, they only had regional numbers, not state by state numbers.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:20 PM
Response to Original message
5. My head hurts.
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 02:22 PM by Patsy Stone
Why can't this be taken seriously by anyone other than the "blogosphere?" And, btw, I hate the word "blogosphere." :)

Why did he ask that this not be circulated? Is it because he need VA to complete it, or that he doesn't believe he's correct? I'm going with the first.

:toast:

edited because I wasn't verbose enough the first time around.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. He says not to circulate because it is a DRAFT, not the final version
It was sent out for professional reviews, as is standard with research papers. The usual procedure is that the reviewers suggests whatever revisions they deem appropriate and then, if the article is accepted with or without the revisions, it is then officially published.

It looks like a reviewer's copy got out onto the internet. The question is, what does Dr. Freeman want to do about this? I am considering emailing him myself unless I see that someone else has done it already. He needs to be aware of the data resources available from users of this board as well as giving his permission (or not) to post his paper here.
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Good and Thanks
I hope a good amount of people do review this, provide him with any data he needs, and do not refute the findings.

Happy New Year, NWH. :party:
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. I hope so too, Patsy. And Happy New Year.
May 2005 give the world more reasons to be happy and hopeful than 2004 did.

And may we all help to provide some of those reasons.

:toast: :hi: :party: :hippie: ;)
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Somebody say, "Amen!" n/t
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 03:01 PM by Patsy Stone
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. Hi Patsy!
Happy Orange New Year!

:hi:
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Patsy Stone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Happy New Year, Clark2008!
I love orange...

What are they hiding? :)
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buzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. I think that was the original article put out and not the updated one of
Dec 29 "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy ".
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #11
23. This paper is a draft of article #2 of planned 3 papers in series
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 03:36 PM by Nothing Without Hope
The pdf file linked to above has "DRAFT- Do not circulate, post,or cite with the express concent of the author" all over it. Its title is
"Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election."

(self-edited to correct two small typos)

On the first page, below the text of the paper, is the following explanation of how the three papers are divided up and published:

About this paper: This is the second in a series of papers analyzing the Discrepancy between the Exit Poll and the Official Count in the 2004 US Presidential Election.

The first, "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" documents that the discrepancy could not have been due to chance or random error and that no adequate explanations had been offered. It was originally published as a working paper on November 12, 2004, revised on November 21, 2004 and published December 30, 2004 as a research report. It's available on the web at http://center.grad.upenn.edu or http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf. (snip)

This paper presents the two sets of hypotheses for explaining the discrepancy: polling error or errors in the official count.

The next paper will use state level exit poll data to test these hypotheses.

(snip)
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #5
41. Neither
I'm sure he doesn't think that he's wrong. He just wants his paper to have more peer review before it's circulated. That's the way scientists do things.

I'm sure that he's absolutely certain about his main conclusions. But he is concerned that some of the details may be incorrect, and if so, his critics may use that to discredit the whole paper, as well as him.
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rdmccur Donating Member (622 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #5
47. Patsy, I think your guess is accurate.
I've read all of Freeman's analyses on this
and he is being very kind (to the repubs) in his wording, I assure you.
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cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
6. and who did he do the paper for?

Just wondered who asked for it, paid for it, will be able to use it?

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liam97 Donating Member (406 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Nobody asked or paid for it
this is is voluntary contribution and he had offered it as affidavit to testify at the Conyers hearing and Arnebeck cases
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cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. That's great. I hope they take him up on the offer.
Stuff like this should have been commissioned and paid for and supported by voters rights groups, if not the Dems.

Thanks to the Dr. for the massive effort and I hope he gets both credit and reward for it.

PJ

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Eye_on_prize Donating Member (205 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #15
44. I think it's great that Freeman's report was NOT commissioned by Dems
renders it more 'objective', less vulnerable to charges of 'bias'..
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
14. I'd like to see the correlation between states with
SOS who were also Bush-Cheney Re-Election heads vs. those states whose SOS were not directly involved in the Bush re-election.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #14
42. I have the discrepancies for each state
If you have the other information we can do a comparison
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #42
63. Can't locate, but a google search came up with something interesing:

BUSH-CHENEY '04 ANNOUNCES REGIONAL LEADERSHIP
Posted by PhiKapMom
On News/Activism 07/11/2003 8:52:25 AM PDT · 24 replies · 33+ views

Bush-Cheney '04 ^ | 10 July 2003 | Bush-Cheney '04 News Release
July 10, 2003 Bush-Cheney ’04 Announces Regional Leadership Bush-Cheney ’04 today announced its regional leadership team. The eleven regional chairpersons will help build support for the President’s re-election campaign around the country. “Our regional leadership team is made up of men and women with a great understanding of President Bush’s compassionate conservative agenda. Our regional chairpersons will be valuable advisors and messengers for the campaign,” said Governor Marc Racicot, Chairman of Bush-Cheney ’04. Mario Rodriguez will be the campaign chairman for the Pacific region states including Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada and California. Rodriguez is chairman of the Latino Coalition Foundation, a...

Is this a new phenomenon? I don't recall any regional campaign organizations in the past....I wonder what their role was?

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. I have no idea whether it's now or not -- sorry n/t
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #14
43. I have the discrepancies for each state
If you have the other information we can do a comparison
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dalloway Donating Member (744 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
16. well a happy new year!
that is a heck of a way to start the year. A must read!!!
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
24. Help! who can get Freeman the link to the Florida recount
Done by the newspapers that shows Gore won in 2000? Apparently he does not know this result. I am not Internet savvy enough to find this quickly.
Thanks in advance!
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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Melissa,
Unfortunately, the document you want seems to have been "disappeared" a few weeks ago. Here's the NORC website:
http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/fl/index.asp

Click on "Articles" on the left to go to the Articles page. Then click on "article" on the right and you will get a page saying the document cannot be found. This document was there a few weeks ago. It contains the analysis that shows that Gore won in any recount of all counties using a single standard.

I've tried to find this article cached somewhere like on Google but with no success. Does anyone else have this article downloaded? If so, I would really like to get a copy. The file name is PresidentialElectionBallots.pdf.
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #27
34. Wow! Still need help!
Thanks for looking. These guys are efficient. Someone will have it though.
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #24
51. Is this it?
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #51
58. Thanks Mojo but the data links are missing.....
We know the gist of the story but the data is what we would like to find to forward to Freeman.:)
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #24
60. Understanding Life provided info and I forwarded to Freeman
Thanks Everyone!:toast:
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
25. WOW! - excerpt from the first paragraph (page 2)
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 04:11 PM by Nothing Without Hope
Self-edited to note that the same excerpt was pointed out by Clark2008 in the first reply to this post. Guess it didn't sink in until I read it myself in the text. Oh, I hope this report grows legs that don't quit.
------------------------
He's not pulling his punches here:

(snip)
National Election Pool (NEP) pollsters have acknowledged that their polls deviate from official totals by 1.9% nationwide (a 3.8% shift from Kerry to Bush) and intimated that this deviation was caused by disproportionate numbers of Bush voters refusing to participate in the polls. Analysis of the available data and theory, however, strongly suggests that at least part of the discrepancy is due to miscount. Moreover, a review of 2004 election processes suggests little reason for confidence that the count reflects either the intent of the electorate or the way that the votes were cast.
(snip)
:wow: So great to see this baldly stated in an expert's analysis. The Conyers people will be glad to see this, and perhaps it will convince Kerry to look more broadly and boldly for the evidence of election fraud.
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buzzard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. It struck me as well, but can he give expert testimony?
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. Why not? But it needs to be convincing to other experts
and the claims of "experts" brought forward by the Bush cartel need to have their logical holes pointed out by other experts as well.

This is likely to go above the heads of the judges and most people studying it, but that's what "expert testimony" is all about.

It has to be solid and convincing, and only other experts can judge that. I'm betting that there's a lot of education on the intricacies of voting statistics and such going on among the top reporters and legal teams for both sides. In fact, I recall Keith Olbermann noting that in his blog several weeks back when these scholarly papers began coming out. "It's hard work," I believe he said, and I imagine he was well aware of the irony of his choice of words.
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zimba Donating Member (148 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. Ya gotta laugh at the line, given by NEP reps,
"this deviation was caused by disproportionate numbers of Bush voters refusing to participate in the polls."

PULEAZE. As if Bushites werent the most vocal in your face "I am the way and the light" please give me a chance to demonstrate my faith for our presidente crowd one ever ran into. Oh yeah, they all of a sudden, on election day, decided that now was not the best time to profusely declare their narrow minded views, knowing full well that election polls would be blasted all over the media.

Truth is they probably kept going back to the car and getting into new disguises and then came back out of the polling booth pretending they just voted so they could give multiple responses to the pollsters. At the very least, that scenerio makes as much sense as the NEPs view that they all of a sudden decided to clam up. What a bunch of clowns.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Yeah, pretty amazing gall, huh? Plus...
...they would have to add the stipulation that this had never happened in EARLIER exit polls in the same places, which were pretty much spot-on accurate. Just somethin' about drinking that Shrub Kool-aid, I guess...
:beer:
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #31
56. Two questions about those "disproportionate numbers"
1. What is the statistical definition of "disproportionate"?

2. Why did the "disproportionate numbers of * voters" suddenly become free and open about voting for * after 9:43 p.m. when the exit polls in Ohio suddenly flipped to * and stayed there?
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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
38. Excuse my ignorance, may I ask 2 stupid questions?
What does "Kick" mean in messages all over this forum?

Also, how come people use an * when referring to Bush?
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Not a stupid question
"Kick" is a means to keep a thread going.

* is sometimes used when referring to Bush because a lot of people dislike him so much that they can't bear to spell out his name. It's a way of showing contempt. That's just my guess.
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IndyPriest Donating Member (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #40
48. The * is also a reference to Bush's illegitimacy
Whenever his first "election" will be mentioned in history books, it will (likely) have an * after it with a mention of his being the first prez in U.S. history to have been installed by the Supreme Court.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #48
57. Let's hope that the * also means
that he was the first president to be impeached and the removed from office.
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deacon2 Donating Member (396 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #38
49. Interesting answers vis'a'vis the use of * for the Emperor
I must be crude - we often used this symbol in school in lieu of the term: a**hole. Any of these explanations can work imho.
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RevCheesehead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #49
52. same difference.
Today, I noticed that Doonesbury uses the * for the shrub - I had no idea! (someone posted today's strip on the board)
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IndyPriest Donating Member (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #49
54. Yes, I think everyone would agree that * for "asshole" certainly works!
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BreakForNews Donating Member (241 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #38
59. Kick Boosts Threads
When you kick a thread it rises in the listings
on DU. Don't overkick - but if you like a thread
reply to a post or KICK without comment like this:

Subject: Kick n/t

n/t=No Text
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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
39. Thanks Dr. Freeman!
:loveya:
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mikelewis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #39
46. Seriously... Thank you, Dr. Freeman
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
45. Steven Freeman -- Man of the Year 2005 !
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 07:06 PM by davidgmills
What struck me most about his paper is that he made a compelling argument that exit polls are indeed far more accurate than the actual elections themselves. We all tend to believe that the actual elections must be accurate but he shows us in vivid detail why we should have very good resaon not to believe the accuracy we naively expect.

When it gets right down to it, there are huge motives to having one's candidate win and accuracy on election day clearly is not the goal. Winning is the goal.

In contrast, to a pollster, accuracy is the goal, because if you are not accurate, you are out of business. Points hard to dispute.

One other thing he pointed out that was interesting. Pollsters when apparently wrong, try to "correct" their errors. If the past elections were fraught with error, pollsters just compound the problem by assuming that the elections were correct when it probably was their data which was correct all along. No correction was necessary but they do it anyway.

He also did not take the opportunity to revise his 650,000 to one odds of something being seriously amiss. Originally, he had given odds of 250 million to one, but reduced them after pressure to put in a 30% design effect. I notice he did not take the bait to reduce it down to the 50-80% design effect numbers that Mitofsky and others are saying are necessary for 2004.

Given the tone of his article, I think he thinks, at this point, upping in these design effect numbers are just a further attempt of a pollster trying to correct for flawed election results on the assumption that the election results were accurate.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #45
55. kick
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
53. I've Looked at the Red Shift vs. Govs. of Each State
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 08:13 PM by Bill Bored
States with the largest Red Shifts do have mostly Republican Governors. (I'm beginning to feel like TruthIsAll here!)

Haven't looked at SOSs or which states have VVPBs and which don't, but these certainly should be looked at, particularly the VVPB. Freeman alludes to this.

I intend to read all of Freeman's work, but so far, I'm not a big fan of this exit poll hypothesis mainly because Mitofsky has been so cagey. I think he should be called to account for this under oath though because he's driving a lot of people bonkers with this stuff.

Feel free to correct any errors.
Here are the governors' party affiliations for each state ranked by Red Shift:


State | Gov's | Red Shift %
--------Party---(- = Red)
DE Democrat -5
NH Republican -4.9
VT Republican -4.8
SC Republican -4.6
AK Republican -4.4
NE Republican -4.4
AL Republican -4
NC Democrat -4
NY Republican -3.8
CT Republican -3.4
MA Republican -3.4
PA Democrat -3.4
RI Republican -3.4
MS Republican -3.3
OH Republican -3.1
FL Republican -3
MN Republican -3
ID Republican -2.9
UT Republican -2.9
AZ Democrat -2.6
LA Democrat -2.1
IL Democrat -2
WI Democrat -2
NM Democrat -1.8
WV Democrat -1.8
CO Republican -1.6
GA Republican -1.6
IN Democrat -1.6
MO Democrat -1.5
NJ Democrat -1.5
WA Democrat -1.4
WY Democrat -1.3
IA Democrat -1.2
AR Republican -1.1
KY Republican -1
MI Democrat -1
OK Democrat -1
NV Republican -0.9
ME Democrat -0.7
MD Republican -0.4
MT Republican 0
VA Democrat 0.3
OR Democrat 0.8
HI Republican 1.2
TX Republican 1.4
TN Democrat 1.5
CA Republican 1.6
SD Republican 1.6
KS Democrat 2.4
ND Republican 2.4
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zimba Donating Member (148 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
61. Good work, Dr Freeman.


Its a really hard subject to get ones head around, unless of course your good at math, but Steve does a good job of making the issues easy to understand.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
62. This paper is much more than an update! KICK!
It is a brilliant new analysis of the Exit Poll information in the context of the political situation, the unlawfulness in Ohio and Florida, the non-transparency of our election system, yet more indications that Kerry won, and our democracy's perilous condition. I urge people to read it!
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 07:58 PM
Response to Original message
65. What causes the deletion of lines when I print this PDF file off?
I downloaded this PDF file, then tried to print it off. When I did, many lines were blacked out. Is this caused by corrections to the original article that don't "take" when the new PDF is created? The finished print-out looks as if somebody has decided to censor parts of the report. I don't see why this would happen. I can read the information clearly on the screen but when I print it off, many lines are just blacked out. Is this some quirk in my computer or printer? I use Adobe Reader to read the PDF of course.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
66. Here's documentation of vote machine fraud that explains the swing
Widespread vote machine fraud has been documented in Florida in the big touchscreen counties, as well as voter suppression of minorities. Similar to the widespread voter suppression and fraud that has been documented in Ohio and New Mexico.
The problems appear large enough to swing all 3 states, as implied by the exit poll data- for which a new version is circulating today with strong evidence Kerry won the election. Exit poll data on voting groups.

Documentation for Ohio is at: http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19

and http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm

Documentation of the widespread Florida vote machine fraud is at: http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html


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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #66
68. Kick n/t
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intensitymedia Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
67. THIS IS A SMOKING GUN - NOW LET'S USE IT!!!!
Folks, Freeman has demolished all the weak, pathetic lies that have been stinking up the media about the election results vis-a-vis the exit polling data.

Freeman has hammered the last nail in the coffin.

We have proof of fraud. If you haven't looked at the Mitofsky exit polls they're at

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/

Kerry was leading when the polls closed in the east by a couple of points. There's no way Bush made up nearly four points between eight pm and when the polls closed in the west.

RISE UP!!!

WE HAVE TO YELL AND SCREAM ABOUT THIS!!

All the rest is quisling obeisance to a fascist putcsch, that's put the rottenest bunch of thugs in power in the history of this country.

A MILLION CALLS AND A MILLION IN THE STREETS !

If you're not working to those ends, you're part of the problem. Don't waste your time. Don't waste thsi historical moment.

Peace - but never give up the struggle -

che aka el garbantho

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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
69. mega-kick
anybody else having trouble reading part 3?
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
70. Kick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! n/t
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:06 AM
Response to Original message
71. kick
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
72. OK--where is it? The links are dry--anybody got it?
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-04-05 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #72
73. Got a note from him today thanking D U
Edited on Tue Jan-04-05 12:12 AM by Melissa G
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