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JoMama49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:28 AM
Original message
Other Places on the Net are Reporting Clear Evidence of Crime!
For instance, this post from John Ervin of Anti-bush2004 <muservin@yahoo.com>

UPDATE: MITOFSKY EXIT POLLS OF OUR "ELECTIONS" CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CRIME

We've just spent several hours analyzing the apparently "leaked" Mitofsky Exit Polls that were the raw data of all our 2004 "elections" and were provided to the major networks, just not to the voters (Big Newz claims to be the "owners" of the data we offer them after voting).

We focused in on one indicator of fraud: if you look at the different pdf files, they are grouped at scoop.co.nz in three groups, or scrutinies of the voters. We looked at the "PRES04" files, toward the lower part of each grouping of about a dozen poll results, each twelve pages long. The "PRES04" that lists as "filter(s)" the words "total results" which can be found under the network logos in upper left corner of each file, pg. 1 (you'll see the NBC peacock, among others) is the most immediately "revealing" file. It shows, at a glance a most astonishing result: there were three of these posted:

1) the first total percentage, country-wide, for the presidential race was posted before 4 PM on Election Day itself (we're assuming EST as the Time Zone, though we didn't see that indicated). The national overall results show Kerry winning 51 to 48 per cent of the vote.

2) the second over all result for President was time-stamped a little before the 8 PM closing of most polls, and showed Kerry winning 51 to 48 per cent; in other words, the same result.

3) the last result posted for the overall result (i.e. the popular vote) for the presidential race was time-stamped almost a day later, and a couple of hours after Kerry conceded, and show the same result, but as if the names had been switched over the columns: in this final exit poll, posted almost 18 hours later, Bush is now "winning" 51 to 48 per cent.

Clearly, the networks might have a number of ways to rationalize this enormous turnaround: a late surge for Bush, or whatever; but given the mounting evidence of inexplicable reversals in places like Oklahoma (where Kerry was winning in 57 counties with 70 per cent of the vote being counted, and wound up losing ALL 57 counties) all of these data deserve a profound examination, just for starters in an inquiry into much, much evidence of fraud. Such sudden reversals in exit polls we believe to be a world first, in general elections, and don't pass the sniff test. Such a thing could not float in the Ukraine, as studiously covered in the U.S. as the Scott Peterson trial, so why should we let it float here? I'll continue to ask that question until someone in government gives me a meaningful response.....

We must continue to refuse all the results of all these elections, as long as the legitimacy of our governments and "elected" representatives cannot be authenticated. Saying so --even from 300 million TV's and radios-- doesn't make it so.

Accept no substitutes!

Meanwhile: Happy New Year

Peace: JE
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:33 AM
Response to Original message
1. Zogby mentions the unexpected "flips" also Pres defied history and logic
I am listening to a Charlie Rose interview with the Zogby brothers on December 28, 2004. Rose asked what happened to polling on election day? Zogby: Nothing--most pollsters "nailed the race." Zogby called election at 5 P.M. for Kerry (prediction). Thought he was capturing a trend since generally undecided break against the incumbent. What was wrong with conventional wisdom, Rose inquires (Kerry to get youth vote, high turnout equals Kerry win, late deciders vote against incumbent, etc.)?  BTW, only 5% undecided.

Zogby states that if  you can believe the exit polls, this President defied history and defied logic since 51 % voted FOR the President, but 51 % said country headed in wrong direction and 51 % gave the President a negatiave job performance  rating.  We were polling those barometrics readings and still seeing that the President wasn't doing well, but for some reason these undecided broke for Bush. It defied logic.

Rose notes that NY Times writer (Adam Negorney) who appeared on his show the night before the election said that 18 months ago Karl Rove came to the NY Times to tell them that the Repugs were going to bring to the polls 3 to 4 million more Christians than last time and win the election.  Rose: Nobody believed him, is that what happened?  Zogby talks about how the evangelicals define policies of the Bush administration (such as Israel and a variety of social issues), but didn't say anything about these 3 to 4 millions actually  voting. CNN had a program foreshadowing the evangelicals who were going to vote for Bush (the Sunday before the election--I remember being shocked seeing this program after phoning Ohio all day.)


Zogby: Exit polls gave us a distorted picture because partial samples taken at different parts of the day. Zogby hasn't seen raw data to determine what happened. For example, in Pennsylvania 20 point lead down to 17 later in the afternoon. There were "mistakes" but weren't expecting states to flip. "Mistakes" mentioned several times....

John Zogby calls for a full blue-
ribbon panel to study the raw exit poll data from Edison/Mitofsky so that it can be evaluated. He based his results on this raw data and says it should be made public. Not to overturn results, but to restore dignity and confidence in the system.

Zogby" This year the middle (buffer zone) missing.
Not that Bush didn't win, mind you, but to point out the problem with the Diebold machines, long lines, provisional ballots, and so forth.

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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. directly after the election (1-2 days after) Zogby interviewed
briefly on NPR didn't see any problems with the shift -- he's changing a bit from what he originally said. If it makes any difference.

We need the raw data!
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:34 AM
Response to Original message
2. I wish he hadn't included that line about Oklahoma...
it's been shown that the Tulsa World posted the 2002 cockfighting referendum tallies as being Bush-Kerry results.
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JoMama49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Another post from John Ervin of the Anti-bush group:
This looks like the real thing, folks: after Mass Media outlets (all the Big T.V.'s) trotted out a single spokesman a week ago to say for them, collectively, that they would not release exit poll data, it would appear from the files at this New Zealand website that someone has turned the tables on "them" and released the complete exit poll results for our "elections." Apparently the author of the note below is stating that there is other corroborating evidence available to us that these figures are the real deal.......

Our suggestion? EVERYONE download them and pass them on to others before the website is gagged by some kind of injunction (Kiwi Supremes?). The more of us who have this primary information and continue to post and circulate it, the harder the CYA........

PAXXX (and Happy New Year!) -je



Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 13:48:39 -0800 (PST)

Subject: BREAKTHROUGH - MITOFSKY EXIT POLLS RELEASED ON SCOOP.NZ


Despite craven if not treasonous media attempts to
suppress this crucial data, clearly proving John
Kerry's victory on November 2nd, the Scoop.co.nz site
has come up with the goodies.

Don't waste time with anyone who says these are fakes.
They were posted on CNN.com the night of the
election, people know these reflect that information,
so there's no question of authenticity.

These pages are Exhibit One in the people's
prosecution of 2004 vote fraud in the presidential
election.

Go to:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/

and start downloading. (or if you have gmail I'll
forward as attachments)

There's a lot of data here, but the presidential files
are at the bottom.

SEND THIS LINK TO MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
DEMANDING A REVOTE IN OHIO AND A PROTEST AGAINST THE
ELECTORS ON JAN 6TH

We deserve at least as good as the Ukraine ..

peace

che el garbantho





Ya
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buddysmellgood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Forgive me, but how did the NZ site get the complete raw data?
Perhaps you should post this as its own thread.
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:14 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Data came from althecat (DU)
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 02:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. I'm going to post the following as a separate thread because...
...I do not want anyone to miss it. I am posting it here for your information and the information of those who read your post.

A very, very, very "orange" and happy New Year to you.

________________________________
To Those Awaiting A Preliminary Analysis of Exit Polling Data Released 12/31/04:

It's a lot of data to wade through but what has been released is more or less in line with what we had. What is curious and potentially very misleading is that the data from the 12:20 - 12:25 a.m. time of updates (which I was able to capture on election night, but which otherwise apparently would not exist anymore) is missing from this otherwise complete set. This is crucial, since it shows that (to take the full national sample), Kerry maintained his 2.6% lead (rounded to 3%) when 13,047 of the eventual "13,660," rather than the 11,027 from the last pre-"adjusted" batch released here (7:33 p.m.), had been counted.

From the data released it would look somewhat plausible that a late Bush swing (between 11,027 counted and 13,660 counted) could have accounted for the shift in the EPs from Kerry51/Bush48 to Bush51/Kerry48; but the missing sweep (the 12:20 a.m. timeframe) shows that this was not possible.

So my question is, where is that group of data; or did whoever released this stuff forget that I printed out the missing link? It appears that a partial set of data was released (missing a crucial piece) possibly in the hope of creating the impression that all was according to Hoyle. It is critical to examine this newly released data in conjunction with the screenshots which I possess and have distributed to certain recipients who (for obvious reasons) will not be named.

Among these screenshots, the national sample at 12:23 a.m. is public and can be referenced as Appendix A of the Simon/Baiman paper at <http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/1054>. It reproduced a bit fuzzy so I'll recap: 12:23 a.m.; 13,047 respondents; Male(46%) 52%B/47%K, Female(54%) 45%B/54%K; Total 48.2%B/50.8%K.

It is also very much worth scrutinizing the breakdown by party ID for that 12:23 a.m. sample:

Dem 38% (B9%/K90%), Rep 35% (B92%/K7%), Ind 26% (B44%/K52%). Compare that to the "adjusted" sample from 1:24 p.m. Wednesday: Dem 37% (B11%/K89%), Rep 37% (B93%/K6%), Ind 26% (B48%/K49%). Remember: the # of respondents barely changed, so the changes are due almost entirely to "renormalization" which, if it is without justification, can better be called flat out fudging.

What we see is that the sample shifts from 38%Dem/35% Rep to 37%Dem/37%Rep (because of the huge effect of party ID on candidate preference, this shift in weighting is very much more powerful in altering the overall results than any reweighting by gender) and Independents lurch over to Bush by 7% (from B44%/K52% to B48%/K49%). Without the missing screenshot from 12:23, an argument might be made that the 2500 or so late exit poll respondents (after 7:33 p.m.) account for these shifts—anyone analyzing just the data released today would be excused for drawing such a conclusion. The missing 12:23 a.m. data shows that such a conclusion would be erroneous (it was data manipulation to match the "actual" vote counts, and not an increase in the size of the respondent group, which produced the pro-Bush shifts).

Edison/Mitofsky must present a legitimate reason for skewing their own polls to overrepresent Reublican and underrepresent Democratic voters (remember the controversy over some right-wing pre-election polls which did essentially the same thing?), while throwing a substantial share of the Independent vote from Kerry over to Bush. The only arguable reason for doing so is what has been dubbed the "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis—the assumption being that (against all logic and observational evidence and against the evidence of the polls themselves) Republicans won the turnout battle in virtually every state across the country but that this implausible Republican advantage was masked by their innate comparative reluctance to participate in the exit polls. No EVIDENCE, however, has been advanced to support the reluctant Bush responder hypothesis other than the tautology that the vote count had to be right and therefore the exit polls must have been wrong and this is the only way to explain it.

We still await release of the missing late exit poll data and, of course, of the raw data which would permit independent analysis of the raw numerical facts of the case.

—Jonathan Simon

(source, private email forwarded to me)

Peace.


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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. Thx understandinglife!
I didn't know you had a screen shot of the late, late data! That's marvelous!
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NVMojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:25 AM
Response to Original message
8. they "flip-flopped" the exit poll results!! Those creeps!!!
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illflem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 06:20 AM
Response to Original message
9. My feeling on the poll discrepancies
is that many people were ashamed to admit they voted for bush and lied in the exit polls.
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Quakerfriend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 07:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. You don't really believe that do you???
:crazy:
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Only in America are we unable to do reliable exit polls
We Americans can do them for other countries but we just can't figure our own out. Yeah right, and I have a piece of swamp land I'd like to sell you too.
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mamalone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
12. OK...I'm confused here.....
Edited on Sat Jan-01-05 08:59 AM by mamalone
Not a surprise to those who know me well:eyes: but, anyhoo..I don't understand how the exit polling data can be clear-cut evidence of the fraud. Isn't their rationale that the data itself was flawed? Wouldn't that discount the data proving anything? I mean, even if *we* believe that it is accurate, won't they just say that we are using faulty data to reinforce our own faulty assumptions?

Can someone help me out here?
TIA
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Chimpanzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Look at this!
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3737_PRES04_WE_V_Data.pdf

The last page shows:

In today's election for U.S. House of
Representatives, did you just vote for:
(n=1,556)
The Democratic candidate 51 88 8 -
The Republican candidate 46 10 90 -

It indicates that for the US house, they voted for the democrat 51-46 over the republican candidate, - 88% of the Kerry voter voted for the democratic candidate, and 90% of the Bush voters voted for the republican candidate. Doesn't this mean that there had to be WAY more Kerry voters that voted in the election? This data is just for the 'west' region.

Kinda makes you go hmmmmmmmmmm!!
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many a good man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 09:35 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Exit polls are the most accurate
Their projections have by far the lowest margin of error possible. I've hear some place less than 1%. It is widely used throughout the world by election monitors to judge the fairnesss of elections.


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mamalone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Thanks!
I absolutely believe that the data is accurate, and it reinforces my belief that Kerry actually won. It is very heartening as well to see how large his margin of victory really was. But will the MSM just all discount this and say that this is just further evidence that the exit polls were flawed (cause they don't line up with the "actual" vote)? Will this be able to be used to prove fraud to the doubters? Sorry if I'm not making any sense here...I guess what I am saying is how is this futher proof than what we already had? (I know it must be, since it is what folks have all been clamouring for, but I just don't understand exactly *why*)

Sorry to be so dense:silly:
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wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
17. Just in time for Conyer's report!
And I'm sure TIA will be all over this too.

Maybe Zogby will even weigh in on this.

Here's hoping that this information sprouts wings, leaps into the 2005 skies, and flies like an eagle.
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IStriker Donating Member (408 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
18. Your Yahoo link does not work. It's an email address.
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-01-05 03:14 PM
Response to Original message
19. Quite pertinent links from the DU archives: 2-3 Nov 2004
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