There Is No Way John Howard Stands A Chance In Australia

[fightindonkey]

Unless some miracle happens to him, he's beyond over. I can't wait for them to show him the door!

[canetoad]

1. Is that wishful thinking

or astute and informed political commentary?

[anakie]

2. I can't and won't write him off

until Rudd makes his victory speech on Nov 24th. While undoubtedly it is looking hopeful there are another 4 weeks to go, and as they say, that's a long time in politics.

If Labor can take Bennelong and Wentworth they will win in a canter, if not it will go right down to the wire and to pick up 16 seats is a big ask.

I still stand by my original prediction of the Coallition by 2.


Peace

[Matilda]

3. I think Rudd can do it,

but never underestimate the stupdity of Australian voters, the ones
who gave him a majority in both houses in 2004.

[Matilda]

4. It's going from bad to worse for Howard.

This weekend's speculation that Malcolm Turnbull suggested the Government
should ratify the Kyoto Protocol to defuse climate change as an election
issue is all over the front pages. Nobody's confirming, but nobody's
denying it either, and there's a suspicion that it was leaked by Turnbull
himself in an effort to save his seat. If that's true, he clearly thinks
Howard's a goner anyway, and doesn't give a damn.

Then there's the accusation by an American lawyer that he was told by
by a military officer that Dick Cheney interfered directly to arrange a
plea bargain for David Hicks, to defuse that little problem from becoming
a major election issue. Coming at a time when the Pentagon and the Bush
Administration are under increasing scrutiny by the US Supreme Court for
the way they've conduct the arrest and trial of Gitmo detainess, it
makes Howard look increasingly pathetic for not having intervened sooner
to protect the rights of Australian citizens.

And now the Greens have announced that they are close to coming to a deal
on preferences with Labor, which should help enormously in ending the
Coalition's control of the Senate, and possibly give the Greens the
balance of power.

Howard should have kept his word to retire at 64 and gone gracefully
when he had the chance.

[Esra Star]

5. Malcolm Turnbull is positioning himself for the top job.

In the Liberal party that is. There is no love lost between Howard and Turnbull.
I think all the main players are seeing the writing on the wall.
They can also see the fan spinning. They're all stocking up on raincoats.
After the election, I think the Libs,(assuming they lose), will have a huge
cleanout and shake up. I wouldn't be surprised to see Costello resign
if he doesn't get the leadership.
:popcorn:

[Matilda]

7. Oh, yes, he has big ambitions, that one.

Of course, he could well lose his seat at this election, but no doubt they'll find him another
(safer) seat next time around if that happens.

I think Costello will get the leadership after the election, whether they win or lose, but if he
doesn't improve their polls quickly, he won't last. If he's still around, Turnbull will then step
up. They really don't have anybody else credible at the moment - Nelson would like it, I don't
doubt, but he's a proven liability - the man can't even speak without learning every word beforehand.
Downer? He had his turn and blew it. Abbott? No backing with Howard gone - I do think the party
will probably move more towards the centre after Howard, and Abbott is too identified with the
hardline Howard years. I think Coonan is ambitious, but she'll have to hang around a bit longer.

I'd put a bet on Costello as next leader, but Turnbull for the next Liberal PM, but hopefully that
won't happen for at least 10 years.

[ironbark]

6. I can't wait for them to show him the door!

As Kevin says in every speach and policy-

"Me too!....me too!"

And if he doesn't come up with something new it might not happen.

[uriel1972]

8. I think if Kevin Rudd doesn't shoot himself in the foot

they'll sneak over the line. It will be interesting to see the balance of power in the senate again. What will the minors get for there trouble, I wonder?

[biggles1]

9. Please, don't jinx us!

I thought much the same in 2001, then the Tampa came steaming over the horizon and Howard played the race card for all it was worth...the rest is history.

I'll believe it when I wake up on Nov 25 to hear Howard crying in his beer...err, Bonox.

[AX10]

10. I was looking at the numbers.

It seems that Labor is going to win with a majority no larger than 80. Unless the Libs collapse under 40%, Rudd will not have a majority to match the amount of popular vote.

[anakie]

11. I dont understand your comment

Our electoral system is very different to yours. Check out and have a play around with this site if you are interested.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/


Peace

[R_M]

12. Rudd will have to receive a higher percentage of the popular...

vote than Howard did last time. That is what it looks like to me.

[Blashyrkh]

13. We work with the vote "swing" from either side.

Rudd needs a uniform 4.8% swing across the country. So 4.8% of the people who voted for Howard will have to swing to Rudd for him to win.

I think that's how it works anyway.

[Matilda]

14. If you mean a higher percentage of primary votes, yes, that's correct.

He can't rely on preferences, because they can go any way.

Since he became leader, Labor's primary vote has increased by a good
margin, hence the optimism among Labor supporters. Labor's currently
ahead by 7-8% in the polls, so even with a 3% margin for error, it's
looking good.

Edit to add guide to preferential voting system (it is more complicated
than it seems at first):

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/howpreferenceswork.htm

[Paul_Weyrich]

15. I agree. He's to closly aligned with the unprincipled Bush.

Go Rudd!

[micraphone]

16. News report the other night..

.. here in NZ had Howard in danger of losing HIS seat, according to local Sydney polling.

Anyone seen numbers in the last couple of days? They showed a snooty woman who could not bring herself to even name the Labour party... she just sort of choked and told, or rather spluttered to, the reporter "I would NEVER vote for, ahhhh, the.... OTHER party".

[Matilda]

17. It's a possibility.

The demographics of his electorate have changed due to a redistribution, and it's no longer as
solidly Liberal as it used to be.

Plus he's facing a high-profile opposition candidate in Maxine McKew, former ABC journalist. She's
got an uphill battle, but she just might do it.

[Esra Star]

18. It's looking more likely every day. I think the good citizens

of Bennelong realise that there will be a by-election for sure
if they put him back.
Electors should only vote for a member who is going to actually represent them.

[Matilda]

19. The Lindsay fake leaflet scandal isn't going to help Howard.

All the typical comments from the Libs:

Andrew Robb: I don't know any of these people.

Gary Clarke: My wife didn't know anything about it.

Jackie Kelly: It was a joke.

John Howard: I know nothing.

[Esra Star]

20. We all remember Pauline Hanson. The Libs distanced themselves

from her real fast.
Then when they saw the traction she got, picked up a few of her ideas.
This is kind of like a reverse "Tampa".
God, I'm lovin' this.

[Matilda]

21. Even the Murdoch press have endorsed Labor.

The Daily Terror and the Australian have supported the move to Labor in
their editorials today, as well as the Sydney Morning Herald.

I think they're doing no more than reflecting popular reality, but the
Libs must be feeling sick.

How sweet it is ...

[anakie]

22. which poll do we believe this morning?

Galaxy at 52-48; 48 being the number the Libs needed to get to to stand a chance; or AC Neilson at 57-43 - an annihilation. I know which one I want to believe, although even on Galaxy's numbers Labor should just get over the line.

Should be an interesting night tomorrow night.

Peace

[Esra Star]

23. I'd have to see what question Galaxy was asking.

I'm in Bonner and I have had three different phone poll calls during this election.
The questions vary. I wouldn't call it "push polling" but questions are sometimes
put that have no clear answer.
Then, of course, there's the follow up.
The best idea, to predict the result, is to check the prices at Centrebet.

[anakie]

24. I'm up in Fairfax

very safe coallition therefore have heard nothing, seen no one, and hardly an election sign in sight for the whole campaign.

Interesting mumblings about Fisher down the road, the horrid Peter Slipper may be in trouble despite his margin of over 10 percent.

At least your vote in Bonner may count.


Peace

[Esra Star]

25. Have you seen this Chris Crocker rip off on youtube?

Not for dial-uppers though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYNum3X4tmY

[Matilda]

26. I can't find the actual Galaxy poll; only one taken in November.

What was significant about that was one-third of people polled said that either they had made a
decision but could change their minds, or simply hadn't yet decided. They're the ones who could
make a difference in such a close race.

The most encouraging thing about all the polls is their consistency - Rudd/Labor has been ahead every
time since last December. What intrigues me is what is behind it - unfortunately, I don't really
think most people care two hoots that Howard is a proven liar, that he took us to war against our
wishes, or that he treats refugees and minorities with lack of compassion. Neither is it the
economy this time - most people polled feel that interest rate rises are the result of international
forces and not local policies. It looks far more likely that Howard has just passed his use-by date,
and is seen as too old, out of touch, and just been there too long. And if that's the true
perception out there, nothing he says will make any difference.

[Esra Star]

27. If Labor don't win, it will mean that polls aren't worth wasting time on.

Howard has run out of rabbits. The stunt in Lindsay has backfired bigtime.
At this stage I think a nuclear attack or actual video of Kevin in bed with a sheep
are the only options.